Futurists Pick Top Tech Trends
By Joanna Glasner
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http://www.wired.com/news/business/0,1367,69138,00.html
02:00 AM Oct. 25, 2005 PT
Taking a long-term view isn't easy nowadays.
Even the recent past seems blurry at times. Google's just seven years old, but it's hard to imagine life before instant search. Broadband has been widely available for only a few years, but already dialup internet seems to high-speed users like a throwback to the Neanderthal era.
Future StockIn an age of rapid-fire change, contemplating the future is downright headache-inducing. Investors who plan strategies over multiple years or decades recognize that today's must-have technologies are probably destined for tomorrow's waste bins. But there's no scientific method for identifying their replacements.
That's why this week's column includes input from an assortment of experts who share their views on top contenders to be the technologies of tomorrow.
Next time around, we'll see what future-thinking folks predict about the opposite question: Which heavily touted technologies are destined to flop? For now, let's take a look at the positive trends futurists see on the horizon.
Simplicity: Over the past couple of decades, gadget makers have toiled ceaselessly to add functionality. As a result, your cell phone can now play games, do math and sound off like a barking dog when your ex calls. Your digital camera can shoot extremely poor-quality video. And nearly every device you own with a screen also contains a clock.
The problem, says Ian Pearson, futurist in residence at British Telecommunications, is that most people buy a device for a particular purpose. They neither want nor care about all the extra capabilities.
"We've done 20 years of adding functionality, and 99 percent of that functionality isn't needed," Pearson said. "There will be an enormous market over the next several years for really simple stuff."
For investors, there are few obvious examples of simplicity-minded gadget makers. Apple Computer's iPod is often cited as a model of the simpler-is-better ethos. With shares selling for close to their all-time high, however, Apple (AAPL) is a pricey pick. Royal Philips Electronics (PHG) has an internal strategy effort called "simplicity-led design." But many of the products incorporating the simplicity concept won't be on the market for several years.
Pearson says the simplicity principle can apply to software as well. It's something, he says, that he'd like Microsoft to consider before adding yet another feature to its next version of Word.
Mobile socialization: Already our cell phones and PDAs work well at both contributing to our social lives (i.e., getting in touch with friends) and spoiling them (i.e., meeting friends but ignoring them to answer cell-phone calls).
But according to futurists, we've only scratched the surface of figuring out how our portable communications devices can be of service.
What's in store? How about mapping programs that show us whether anyone we'd like to see is nearby. Or a mobile reference modeled on Wikipedia that can tell us if the restaurant on the corner is any good. Perhaps a few voice-recognition applications that actually work.
While we're at it, why not throw in programs to protect our privacy by limiting who has access to information about where we are?
"Those sorts of things can easily be built into mobile devices," said Pearson.
Speech-recognition technology will be instrumental in enabling new mobile services, said Ronald Gruia, author of the blog Technology Futurist and emerging communications program leader at consulting firm Frost & Sullivan. In recent years, speech software developers, in particular Nuance Communications, which until recently went by the name ScanSoft (SSFT), have gotten much better at what they do. Gruia believes it's only a matter of time before speech-enabled mobile apps for tasks like composing e-mail while driving can be commonplace.
R.I.P. combustion engine?: Gas-guzzling cars and trucks are such an integral part of the modern landscape that we practically take them for granted. When you think about it, that's a pretty amazing feat, considering the noise and smog they generate.
At some point, escalating fuel prices, surging global oil demand and a dwindling supply of easily accessible crude will take their toll, however. That point is closer than ever, says Jennifer Jarratt, a partner at Leading Futurists.
"There's a wide-open space there for disruptive technology in the hybrid car market," she said, noting that established automakers are still reluctant to consider life without the combustion engine.
The World Future Society estimates in its annual list of top predictions for the future that only 40 years' worth of oil is left in the ground, "so action is needed now to plan for a smooth transition to alternatives -- notably hydrogen."
Investing in alternative fuels, however, is a tricky business. Options are limited, and for the most part, quite risky.
Going green: Futurists have been warning about our over-consumptive, pollution- and nonbiodegradable-waste-generating ways for decades. Lately, those warnings are getting more strident.
"I have actually told my own investment adviser: Don't put my money in energy companies that aren't investing in alternatives," said Marsha Rhea, senior futurist at the Institute for Alternative Futures.
Many futurists predict that growth in the market for renewable energy sources will be particularly strong. The World Future Society, for one, forecasts that offshore wind farms will grow into a $3 billion-a-year industry by 2008.
Andy Hines, a lecturer in futures studies at the University of Houston-Clear Lake, also envisions growing demand for information-sensing devices that can reduce energy consumption.
IT revolution of 2006: Even futurists sometimes prefer the short-term horizon. Pearson, for one, expects 2006 will bring one of the more fascinating inflection points in the evolution of digital technology.
"We see the convergence of a whole stack of IT trends," said Pearson, who's gearing up for what he calls "the 2006 IT explosion." Basically, the explosion will consist of a number of technologies: better screens, improved location technology and highly sophisticated gaming consoles that provide a hub for home entertainment.
Pearson expects 2006 to be a good year for gadget sellers. The broad selection of fancy new electronics will provide consumers plenty of temptation. He, however, plans to wait.
"One of the big reasons I don't buy things is because as a futurist I see what they're going to do in the next few years," he said.
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Disclaimer: Wired News makes no representation as to the investment-worthiness of any companies mentioned in this article. Examples are provided for informational purposes only, not as a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular stock.
