Turkey: Is It A Trap?

Xanatic*

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 10, 2015
Messages
4,339
Reaction score
4,581
Points
159
A short while ago Trump basically gave the green light for Turkey to commit military action in Syria against the kurds. Removing US troops from there.
Now he is talking about economic sanctions against Turkey. It also appears some US troops are heading back towards Rojava, and that Iran are attacking Deir Ezzor as well.
 

Xanatic*

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 10, 2015
Messages
4,339
Reaction score
4,581
Points
159
Some of this is from irregular channels but it does sound like an odd move, like an attempt to catch out Turkey.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
As Turkey is buying Russian missiles AND American antimissile systems, as well as the stuff it buys from it's NATO Allies, this all seems very strange.

So Trumps says 'We are pulling out'.

Turkey immediately springs into action with a plan that is no secret.

Trump says 'if you go around killing people we will sanction you'

Erdogan says 'suite yourself' and is already killing people.

Russia and Iran are happy to supply Turkey with all the arms it wants. Even if the Kurds helped them get ISIS out of the region.

Apart from the obvious, that these days an American promise is only good until Trump wants to negate it, And that Turkey is a NATO member and should be on the side of NATO, am I missing anything here ?

There could easily be a conspiracy here.

Or a total fool at the top.

One who is perhaps lining his pockets from this chaos.

INT21.
 

feinman

Asymmetric Contact From Hyperdimensional Aliens.
Joined
Nov 25, 2013
Messages
2,323
Reaction score
1,869
Points
159
I think Trump is a Russian agent, and Putin has compromising information on him; almost everything the creature has done benefits Russia and drags the US down to new lows and weakens our position in the world. There is the secret meeting with Putin, allying with enemies against the intelligence community, etc., etc.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
Xanatic,

Maybe not a trap to catch out Turkey.

Maybe a plot to encourage Erdogan to do what he threatened and release loads of refugees into Europe.

That would Please Trump as he is always saying his big wall is the only answer to keeping people out. And Europe is only the width of the Bosporus away from Turkey. The first stop being Bulgaria.
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,063
Reaction score
29,593
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
Oh ... So this thread isn't about some implicit menace in the Thanksgiving holiday next month? :dunno: :conf2:

Maintain a focus on the conspiracy / international relations aspects rather than "politics" and it might survive.
 

blessmycottonsocks

Antediluvian
Joined
Dec 22, 2014
Messages
5,520
Reaction score
9,347
Points
284
Location
Wessex and Mercia
Amongst other things, Trump was elected on an "America First" non-interventionist ticket, with the message to "bring our boys home". This strikes me as merely a continuation of that.

That said though, there may be an element of giving Erdogan enough rope to hang himself.
 

Yithian

Parish Watch
Staff member
Joined
Oct 29, 2002
Messages
31,455
Reaction score
39,784
Points
309
Location
East of Suez
There could easily be a conspiracy here.
We're going to need somebody--preferable the original poster--to at least outline the details of a putative conspiracy thread.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
51,693
Reaction score
26,526
Points
309
Location
Eblana
A conspiracy angle would be Trump using this to take attention away from his impeachment troubles.
 

Xanatic*

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 10, 2015
Messages
4,339
Reaction score
4,581
Points
159
It's too early to say what the goal is, but to me it could be an attempt to trick Turkey.
Trump might have wanted to bring the boys home, but they are now deploying 3000 troops to Saudia Arabia. I believe they had only deployed 1000 to Syria.
 

ramonmercado

CyberPunk
Joined
Aug 19, 2003
Messages
51,693
Reaction score
26,526
Points
309
Location
Eblana
There are reports of Syrian Government forces backed by Iranian militias taking advantage of the situation to attack SDF positions. Shades of Stalin in Poland in 1939.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
I just figured this entire thread is a trap to get people to post about politics.
Shush !, someone may hear you.

Johnny Cash may have walked the line. We are walking the fine line here.

:)
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
Oh ... So this thread isn't about some implicit menace in the Thanksgiving holiday next month? :dunno: :conf2:

Maintain a focus on the conspiracy / international relations aspects rather than "politics" and it might survive.

Could be a plot to ban imported Turks (sorry, I meant turkeys).

But seriously, one needs to analyse the connection between the players and decide who will make the most money out of it.

And to think of the 'big picture'.

If we avoid mentioning political parties we should be ok.

INT21
 

EnolaGaia

I knew the job was dangerous when I took it ...
Staff member
Joined
Jul 19, 2004
Messages
21,063
Reaction score
29,593
Points
309
Location
Out of Bounds
I don't think one has to look beyond classic geopolitical dynamics to explain what's happening. Let's review ...

- Syria has long been a virtual Soviet / Russian client state that's now embroiled in civil war.

- Both Russia (historical / geopolitical grounds) and Iran (religious / geopolitical grounds) have vested interests in the Assad regime's survival.

- The Syrian opposition (represented militarily by the SDF alliance(s)) needs to be vanquished to ensure this survival.

- Kurds represent the largest single contributor / participant within the SDF forces.

- The century-old Kurdish question is a significant thorn in the side for Turkey, Syria, and Iraq.

- The spread of largely Kurdish military forces and territorial control beyond the Kurdish enclave in extreme northeastern Syria has arguably created a southern flank to whatever conflict one attributes to Turkey versus Kurds.

- Russia wants to foster more cozy relations with Turkey to reduce strategic risk (Bosporus), groom a Turkish regime that's now more to their liking, and wean Turkey's baseline allegiances away from the West and NATO.

- Russia also wants to reduce, repel, or eliminate the American presence / influence in Syria so as to score a political and strategic "win" validating their self-image as a major player in world affairs.

- The American president's abrupt call to withdraw from Syria immediately undermines the SDF and dims (more probably dooms) the Syrian opposition's prospects.

- The pro-Assad parties, in conjunction with the Turkish anti-Kurd campaign into Syria, can turn the tide against the opposition once and for all. In addition, Turkey may also reap gains against the Kurdish entities they want to eliminate along their borders and control within their own territory.

- It's a win-win for the parties who prefer the way Syria's been for decades, and a lose-lose for the parties who'd hoped for a new version of Syria.
 
Last edited:

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
Possibly the Turks simply want to move all the Syrian refugees back across into Syria. That way they (refugees) wont be Turkeys problem anymore.
Syria would possible regard the refugees as being anti Syrian government and harass them.

Nothing straight forward over there. If the Arab Spring affair hadn't happened, most of this problem would not have either.
 

Victory

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 15, 2017
Messages
1,050
Reaction score
2,210
Points
154
Location
London
Or perhaps Trump used the Kurdish YPG to help fight ISIS, and now that he think the fight against Isis is as good as won, he has jettisoned the YPG, him being convinced of their PKK Marxist links?
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
He certainly believes the fight is won. Actually said ISIS is destroyed.

Now he is saying it was a bad idea for Turkey to go into Syria.

There has to be some kind of agreement between him and someone else for this irrational move to have happened; but with whom ?
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
I think Trump is a Russian agent, and Putin has compromising information on him;
This belief could be re-enforced when you consider his strikingly beautiful wife was born in Communist Slovenia.

Probably a good thing she isn't Turkish.

Additional.

Just thinking. Hoover was obsessed with 'reds under the bed'. Now the US has a real live 'red' actually in the presidential bed.

Hoover must be spinning in this grave.

INT21.

(Just having fun, I think she is a wonderful woman)
 
Last edited:

Victory

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Jan 15, 2017
Messages
1,050
Reaction score
2,210
Points
154
Location
London
Just read speculation that the State Department views the YPG Kurds as associated with terrorism, so influenced Trump to withdraw American troops from the Syrian border area.

But that the Pentagon were opposed to this, having fought alongside the YPG against ISIS, and respected the YPG's fighting skills.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
So Pence and co are off to chat to Erdogan.

Good luck to them there.

'Genie' out of the bottle seems appropriate here,
 

Xanatic*

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 10, 2015
Messages
4,339
Reaction score
4,581
Points
159
There is a letter out, supposedly from Trump to Erdogan. There he is telling him to stop his killings, or Trump will destroy the turkish economy.
 

ChasFink

Abominable Snowman
Joined
Jan 22, 2016
Messages
552
Reaction score
1,226
Points
139

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
There is a letter out, supposedly from Trump to Erdogan. There he is telling him to stop his killings, or Trump will destroy the turkish economy.
Why 'supposedly '?
 

Xanatic*

Justified & Ancient
Joined
Mar 10, 2015
Messages
4,339
Reaction score
4,581
Points
159
Supposedly, as I was not sure of it's authenticity.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
Apparently he handed copies to a lot of people. And I understand he put at least some of it on his twit account.
 

INT21

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 18, 2016
Messages
7,763
Reaction score
6,467
Points
279
This is leaning heavily towards the conspiracy side of things.

'All roads lead to Russia '

'Hello, Vladimir; how's the family ? Good, glad to hear it. Now, how is my dacha coming along ? not looking good for 2020'.
 

hunck

Antediluvian
Joined
Jul 13, 2011
Messages
5,798
Reaction score
8,251
Points
284
Location
Hobbs End
There was an interesting R4 prog with David Aaronovitch this eve about the situation for those interested, with input from various 'experts'. Assad has regained territory in a matter of days but can he hold it? Various parties involved. Isis making a comeback. Instability for years to come. I see tonight a ceasefire has been agreed with Turkey. I'm not holding my breath on how long it lasts.

The Briefing Room

Turkey, Syria & the Kurds
 
Top