Another Aircraft Missing in SE Asia: QZ8501

[rynner2]

AirAsia flight QZ8501 from Indonesia to Singapore missing

An AirAsia flight travelling from Indonesia to Singapore has lost contact with air traffic control with 162 people on board.
Flight QZ8501 lost contact at 07:24 (23:24 GMT), Malaysia-based AirAsia tweeted.
Search and rescue operations are under way.
Malaysia's national carrier Malaysia Airlines has suffered two disasters this year - flights MH370 and MH17 - but AirAsia has never lost a plane.
Flight MH370 disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March with 239 passengers and crew, and MH17 was shot down over Ukraine in July, killing all 298 on board.
The AirAsia flight had been due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30GMT).
The missing jet had requested a "deviation" from the flight path due to bad weather, the company said.

Malaysia's national carrier Malaysia Airlines has suffered two disasters this year - flights MH370 and MH17 - but AirAsia has never lost a plane.
Flight MH370 disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing in March with 239 passengers and crew, and MH17 was shot down over Ukraine in July, killing all 298 on board.

The AirAsia flight had been due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30GMT).
The missing jet had requested a "deviation" from the flight path due to bad weather, the company said.

Anxious family members have been arriving at the airport in Surabaya

It was a similar scene at the flight's intended destination in Singapore

The flight arrivals board at Changi Airport in Singapore, where the AirAsia flight was due
There were 155 passengers on board, with 138 adults, 16 children and one infant, the company said in a statement. Also on board were two pilots and five cabin crew.
Most of those on board were Indonesian, but there were six others on board, AirAsia has said: three South Koreans, and one each from France, Malaysia and Singapore.

An official with the transport ministry, Hadi Mustofa, told local media the plane lost contact over the Java Sea, between the islands of Kalimantan and Java.
He said the plane had asked for an unusual route before it lost contact and that the weather had been cloudy.
AirAsia has set up an emergency line for family or friends of those who may be on board. The number is +622 129 850 801.
The company's chief executive, Tony Fernandes, tweeted: "Thank you for all your thoughts and prayers. We must stay strong."

Do we have another 'Bermuda triangle' out there?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30614627

 

[Swifty]

This is getting really strange ... my first instincts are to wonder if it's something to do with a terrorist organisation but I'm not sure who would target these countries and what they'd gain from doing this.

 

[Peripart]

Quite - you'd think, with terrorists, that they'd want everyone to know what they'd done. Anonymity doesn't work, does it?

No, this is almost certainly something else, IMO, but what?

 

[Swifty]

Quite - you'd think, with terrorists, that they'd want everyone to know what they'd done. Anonymity doesn't work, does it?

No, this is almost certainly something else, IMO, but what?

According to this link, someone's claiming that the Malaysia MH370 flight earlier this year was shot by the U.S. because it was remotely hacked ... if that's true, it would remove anyone having to even smuggle bombs or terrorists onto flights anymore and would turn these planes into remote controlled missiles .. so maybe they're all being shot down to prevent more 9/11 level atrocities? ..

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/12/22/mh370-conspiracy-theory_n_6365168.html

 

[rynner2]

On the other hand, there are severe thunderstorms in the area.
There are unconfirmed reports of wreckage found.
Plane has now exceeded its flying time for the fuel it started with.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ssing-with-162-passengers-onboard-latest.html

 

[Swifty]

Are the unconfirmed reports of wreckage being found from the previous two planes? ... if so, that in itself is strange. You'd expect any wreckage that was found to be shown on the news if there was nothing fishy going on surely?

 

[rynner2]

11.49 Our correspondent in Indonesia, Marie Dhumieres, sends this update:

The Jakarta Post is reporting that the plane might have crashed at the location 03.22.46 South and 108.50.07 East, in waters around 80-100 nautical miles from Belitung island, in the Java sea.
The plane would have circled over the sea near Belitung to avoid a storm before it experienced severe turbulence and crashed into the ocean. They’re quoting a spokesperson to the National Search and Rescue Agency, Supriandi, who said that a rescue team had been dispatched to Belitung.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ssing-with-162-passengers-onboard-latest.html

 

[Peripart]

According to this link, someone's claiming that the Malaysia MH370 flight earlier this year was shot by the U.S. because it was remotely hacked ... if that's true, it would remove anyone having to even smuggle bombs or terrorists onto flights anymore and would turn these planes into remote controlled missiles .. so maybe they're all being shot down to prevent more 9/11 level atrocities? ..

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/12/22/mh370-conspiracy-theory_n_6365168.html

Sounds pretty far-fetched, but again, if true, why would the US not have come clean? It would make clear to any would-be terrorists the lengths to which they would go to prevent another 9-11.

Incidentally, it's off-putting just how much Marc Dugain looks like chef Marcus Waring!

 

[Monstrosa]

Are the unconfirmed reports of wreckage being found from the previous two planes? ... if so, that in itself is strange. You'd expect any wreckage that was found to be shown on the news if there was nothing fishy going on surely?

Only if there was footage of the wreckage, and don't use footage of other wreckage.

 

[Swifty]

Sounds pretty far-fetched, but again, if true, why would the US not have come clean? It would make clear to any would-be terrorists the lengths to which they would go to prevent another 9-11.

Incidentally, it's off-putting just how much Marc Dugain looks like chef Marcus Waring!

I agree, it does sound far fetched and I'm leaning far more to the more sensible and likely severe thunder storm explanations. If Marc Dugain is correct though, the US would still have shot down a plane/planes full of civilians ... to prevent terrorism or not, that's something that wouldn't make them very popular with most people in the world .. far easier to pretend the plane has simply gone missing, clear up the wreckage on the quiet and make sure the black box's are never found .. this action would also prevent any hostile's propaganda victory.

 

[Rosebud]

I agree, it does sound far fetched and I'm leaning far more to the more sensible and likely severe thunder storm explanations. If Marc Dugain is correct though, the US would still have shot down a plane/planes full of civilians ... to prevent terrorism or not, that's something that wouldn't make them very popular with most people in the world .. far easier to pretend the plane has simply gone missing, clear up the wreckage on the quiet and make sure the black box's are never found .. this action would also prevent any hostile's propaganda victory.

The thunderstorm explanation is the most likely and, barring strong evidence to the contrary, is the one the authorities will run with.

Peripart, are you in the UK? I only ask because during the IRA bombing campaigns us Brits became used to their practice of giving coded warnings and claiming responsibility soon after. A lot of other organizations don't think like that, for various reasons.

I have borrowed a quote from a poster on pprune: "I don't wish to excite the conspiracy theorists out there, but the location of where QZ 8501 supposedly went down is uncannily close to where the 7th arc of the MH 370 handshake lies. I know it's a coincidence, but just saying .."

Whatever has happened, my thoughts are with the families of the missing.

 

[Cherrybomb]

How terrible. I wonder if we will ever know what happened to it?

 

[Peripart]

Yes, fair enough, I didn't really think that argument through...

According to latest news reports, there seems to be a particular area of sea on which the search will be focussed. In which case maybe, just maybe, there is a chance of finding survivors, if the mundane (but tragic) "plane ditched in sea" scenario is the correct one.

 

[Mythopoeika]

I think it's too much of a coincidence that all these Malaysian flights have disappeared.
Something dodgy afoot.

 

[Loquaciousness]

First thing husband said, who happens to be an aeronautical engineer, was "icing" - I don't think he meant as in a Christmas cake.

 

[rynner2]

First thing husband said, who happens to be an aeronautical engineer, was "icing" - I don't think he meant as in a Christmas cake.

That thought crossed my mind too, when I read about the severe thunderstorms in the area. Cumulonimbus clouds can build to great heights, and can create hailstorms, etc. In fact I saw a good example of one yesterday, which had pushed its way up through a layer of cirrus. (I would have taken a photo, but I was on a bus, which cramped my style!)

 

[Naughty_Felid]

I didn't think icing was that common in that part of the world? Also wouldn't the crew have time to signal it's condition if it was icing?

When planes just disappear it's usually a catastrophic event, such as a bomb or a collision

 

[McAvennie]

Presumably weather-related but the similarities to the Malaysian disappearance make it easy to wonder if there is something more sinister going on.

Particularly worrying as I have a project in SE Asia in 2015 which will likely involve taking several flights in and around the region :/

 

[Naughty_Felid]

Planes are designed to stay in the air and buy time for the crew to resolve issues. Can't believe it is weather-related, the crew would have had time to signal if it was.

 

[rynner2]

Remember Air France 447, which was lost in the Atlantic in 2009? We have a thread on it, here:

forum.forteantimes.com/index.php?threads/air-france-447-crash.37804/#post-875755

Link is obsolete. The current Air France 447 thread is:

https://forums.forteana.org/index.php?threads/air-france-447-crash.37804/

Interesting to re-read it - bad weather was involved there too, but in the absence of definitive proof of what happened, all sorts of theories were thrown around.

It was two years before the wreckage was found on the sea bed. It took another year to recover a flight recorder, and begin to work out the probable sequence of events leading to the crash.

As so often, it seems that weather and technical problems combined with human error to cause the crash.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_447

 

[Loquaciousness]

I didn't think icing was that common in that part of the world? Also wouldn't the crew have time to signal it's condition if it was icing?

When planes just disappear it's usually a catastrophic event, such as a bomb or a collision

I just disturbed husband, who was busy sanding kitchen worktops, ( after I have been nagging him to do so for months ) who was only to happy to supply a detailed explanation. Please see below :

1. Icing on wing leading edge causes the wing's aerodynamics to be upset as the shape or chord changes.
This causes :
a. Stall speed increases.
b. Max speed decrease.
The above is due to an increase in drag and spoiling of air flowing over top of wing.

2. Icing on baro system such as pitot probes can occur leading to serious effects.
One is blocking of tubes which causes aircraft systems to see no pressure which is interpreted as low speed. In normal aircraft a pilot would react to this and cross check. In fly by wire systems the aircraft will try to correct by increasing speed or pitching down to increase speed (envelope protection). In normal aircraft the pilot can also do this manually.

Pitching down coupled with loss of aerodynamic performance can cause catastrophic effects. Pitot systems are dual redundant and all aircraft have some deicing capability.

And finally, 'im indoors says, "Pilots try to avoid icing like the plague".

 

[Loquaciousness]

Planes are designed to stay in the air and buy time for the crew to resolve issues. Can't believe it is weather-related, the crew would have had time to signal if it was.

Apparently not if there was a catastrophic loss of control ( such as in the scenario described above ).

 

[Naughty_Felid]

Yeah I get that, (thanks for the reply ), but if icing occurs you've got several minutes to try and deal with it, even if you still end up crashing. The crew would have contacted air traffic control to say they were in trouble.

 

[Naughty_Felid]

It takes a few minutes to drop 38,000 feet surely?

 

[Loquaciousness]

Yeah I get that, (thanks for the reply ), but if icing occurs you've got several minutes to try and deal with it, even if you still end up crashing. The crew would have contacted air traffic control to say they were in trouble.

Not if the readings are incorrect ( as they would be in above scenario ). Either the plane takes over, or the pilot doesn't double check and takes the incorrect action - both lead to catastrophic failure. By the time pilots are aware of this, they are already nose diving into the ocean ( to put it bluntly ) and at that point they will be desperately trying to aviate, rather than talk to airtraffic control.

 

[rynner2]

Yeah I get that, (thanks for the reply ), but if icing occurs you've got several minutes to try and deal with it, even if you still end up crashing. The crew would have contacted air traffic control to say they were in trouble.

No, read about Air France 447. (Links in my post above.) The crew did not know what kind of trouble they were in, which is why they ended up making it worse.

 

[Ulalume]

I also agree with Loquaciousness' estimation. It must be possible. There was a great documentary on Air France flight 477 that gave a detailed explanation of how a plane could drop out of the sky due to icing. It had to do with supercooled water, IIRC.

 

[Naughty_Felid]

Yeah but the main issue was how the crew reacted due to their fatigue as I recall. Seconds from disaster or some such doco.

 

[sherbetbizarre]

Last plane I was on had its wings de-iced on the runway...

 

[rynner2]

AirAsia QZ8501: Indonesia plane search resumes

The search is continuing for AirAsia Indonesia flight QZ8501, a day after it went missing with 162 people on board.
The head of Indonesia's search-and-rescue agency has suggested the plane could be at the bottom of the sea, but no trace of it has yet been found.
Officials in Surabaya, from where the plane took off, said search teams were only just reaching the area of the Java Sea where the plane is believed to be.
The Airbus A320-200 disappeared early on Sunday on a flight to Singapore.

The pilots had requested a course change because of bad weather but did not send any distress call before the plane disappeared from radar screens.
"Based on the co-ordinates given to us and evaluation that the estimated crash position is in the sea, the hypothesis is the plane is at the bottom of the sea," Bambang Soelistyo, the head of Indonesia's search and rescue agency, told a news conference in Jakarta.

The search for the plane, near Belitung island, was largely suspended as night fell on Sunday.
Although some ships continued the hunt overnight, the main search planes and vessels, from several nations, only resumed on Monday.
Mr Soelistyo said Indonesia was providing 12 ships, three helicopters and five military aircraft.
Malaysia was to deploy a C-130 plane, along with three ships, with Singapore lending a C-130 and Australia also providing help.

Flight QZ8501 had left Surabaya in eastern Java at 05:35 on Sunday (22:35 GMT Saturday) and was due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30 GMT).
The pilot radioed at 06:24 local time asking permission to climb to 38,000ft (11,000m) to avoid the dense storm clouds.
Indonesian officials said the request could not be immediately approved due to traffic, but the plane disappeared from the radar screens before the pilots gave any further response.

AirAsia boss Tony Fernandes said this was his "worst nightmare".
Mr Fernandes flew to Surabaya and later said: "We are very devastated by what's happened, it's unbelievable.
"Our concern right now is for the relatives and for the next of kin - there is nothing more important to us, for our crew's family, and for the passengers' families."

Oceanographer Simon Boxall told the BBC the plane should not be too difficult to find if it went into the water.
The sea floor is within diver depth, he says, and it would be "likely that they'll get answers within a few days".

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30620647