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Asteroid Near-Misses (AKA: Holy Shit! We're All Going to Die)

I paid my bills that day. Had I known disaster was imminent I may not have gone to the trouble.
:rolleyes:
 
I'm just happy we *don't* hear about some of these things. Ignorance really is bliss.
 
Holy Shit! We are all going to die!

Wednesday, 24 July, 2002, 02:29 GMT 03:29 UK
Space rock 'on collision course'


An asteroid could devastate Earth




By Dr David Whitehouse


BBC News Online science editor


An asteroid discovered just weeks ago has become the most threatening object yet detected in space.

A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth and could strike the planet on 1 February, 2019 - although the uncertainties are large.

Astronomers have given the object a rating on the so-called Palermo technical scale of threat of 0.06, making NT7 the first object to be given a positive value.

From its brightness, astronomers estimate it is about two kilometres wide, large enough to cause continent-wide devastation on Earth.

Many observations

Although astronomers say the object definitely merits attention, they expect more observations to show it is not on an Earth- intersecting trajectory.
It was first seen on the night of 5 July, picked up by the Linear Observatory's automated sky survey programme in New Mexico, US.

Since then astronomers worldwide have been paying close attention to it, amassing almost 200 observations in a few weeks.

Dr Benny Peiser, of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK, told BBC News Online that "this asteroid has now become the most threatening object in the short history of asteroid detection".

NT7 circles the Sun every 837 days and travels in a tilted orbit from about the distance of Mars to just within the Earth's orbit.

Potential devastation

Detailed calculations of NT7's orbit suggest many occasions when its projected path through space intersects the Earth's orbit.

Researchers estimate that on 1 February, 2019, its impact velocity on the Earth would be 28 km a second - enough to wipe out a continent and cause global climate changes.

However, Dr Peiser was keen to point out that future observations could change the situation.

He said: "This unique event should not diminish the fact that additional observations in coming weeks will almost certainly - we hope - eliminate the current threat."

Easily observable

According to astronomers, NT7 will be easily observable for the next 18 months or so, meaning there is no risk of losing the object.

Observations made over that period - and the fact that NT7 is bright enough that it is bound to show up in old photographs - mean that scientists will soon have a very precise orbit for the object.

Dr Donald Yeomans, of the US space agency's (Nasa) Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, told BBC News Online: "The orbit of this object is rather highly inclined to the Earth's orbit so it has been missed because until recently observers were not looking for such objects in that region of space."

Regarding the possibility of an impact, Dr Yeomans said the uncertainties were large.

"The error in our knowledge of where NT7 will be on 1 February, 2019, is large, several tens of millions of kilometres," he said.

Dr Yeomans said the world would have to get used to finding more objects like NT7 that, on discovery, look threatening, but then become harmless.

"This is because the problem of Near-Earth Objects is now being properly addressed," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/2147879.stm
 
Hmmmmm......

Looks like I needn't have given up smoking then.

Tata everyone, it's been fun........
 
Ah, they'll invent a big space laser to destroy it before it hits.

Optimistosprout.
 
A preliminary orbit suggests that 2002 NT7 is on an impact course with Earth and could strike the planet on 1 February, 2019 - although the uncertainties are large.
Click to expand...
If, I were a very cynical person, I would say, `What a way to boost the R/D budget for the next seventeen years.'
 
Holy Shit! We are all going to die!
Click to expand...
...........if the asteroid thats currently 17 years away is on a collision course (possibly, we don't actually know that yet)
Another scare story
 
Who remembers the last one they said this about and then promptly lost?
Our future is in safe hands.
 
We are going to die any way!
Better then BSE.
But maybe they only want more money for
weapons research.
Who knows?
sakina:cross eye
 
I always find it amusing that nobody actually knows the exact trajectory, velocity or indeed anything else except "it's a big rock and it's coming this way"... yet they can calculate that it will hit on 1 February, 2019. About tea time perhaps?

Doesn't matter anyway - we all know the world ends in 2012 (or is it 2005?)

Jane.
 
We'll end up living around volcanic vents, with big eyes to see in the dark, small mouths to nibble on the little amount of vegetation that's left and long spindly bodies due to all the extra gases in the air....Hang on. Doesn't that description sound familiar??
 
The end of the world came yesterday. Too late, you missed it.


My brother had that on his bedroom door when we were small.

If this is true, and there's nothing we as individuals can do about it, there's no point in worrying and wasting the time we have left.
 
http://www.spaceweather.com gives you a top ten hit list day by day...nothing to worry about. But if there was do you think the Israelis and all the rest would stop warring as there's no point if there's going to be nowt left to fight about? Not on your bloody life!!
 
Sod all this 'rational reaction' lark. I want us all to run round and round, screaming and flapping our arms.

I loved the way that it only got third headline down on the BBC site. Also, the 'Talking Point' question of the day: 'Asteroid Impact:should we be afraid'?
 
Well you go on flapping your arms, Dan. I will quietly go on making
my very long short-list of things to shag in the next seventeen
years. :p
 
Yeah, 17 years of flapping your arms will just hurt after a while. I'll start flapping if they haven't invented the giant space laser yet in 16 and a half.
 
Aaaahhhhhhhhhhflapflapflapaahhhhhh...
(into distance)
(footsteps coming back other way)
...aaaaahhhhhhhhaaaaahhhhhhhhflapflapflap
 
nononononononono. NO!

Sprout is being rather irresponsible there.

A giant space laser will only break the asteroid into small pieces that will act like carpet bombing instead of a single impact.

What they need to do is make big rockets that will attach to the asteroid and alter it's course, using the actual rock itself as fuel (vaporise the bastard from the inside out). That way, it'll be left hollow with controllable rockets.

Then what we need to do is drill a porthole and go worrying some reptoids. See how THEY like it.
 
Re: nononononononono. NO!

JackSkellington said:
A giant space laser will only break the asteroid into small pieces that will act like carpet bombing instead of a single impact.
Click to expand...
No, smaller pieces would more likely burn up in the atmosphere, and those that did get through would have much lower impact velocity.

(I've covered this before, on one of the other threads mentioned -

EDIT: and Stu tells me these threads have now been merged, so it should be on an earlier page on this thread now!)

Researchers estimate that on 1 February, 2019, its impact velocity on the Earth would be 28 km a second - enough to wipe out a continent and cause global climate changes.
Click to expand...
I'm puzzled by this - the Earth orbits at nearly 30 km/s, and an asteroid with apogee out near Mars would not be going 28 km/h faster when it reaches earth orbit. I'll do some calculations and report back! (I'm assuming the orbit is not retrograde - then the impact velocity would be well over 60 km/s!)
 
Sigh... Children... ;)

Look peeps, the asteroid has an arc of a million miles in which will be the Earth which is some 8000 miles across, and the asteroid itself is one mile wide.

Lets look at this in more understandable terms. Lets reduce the size of the asteroid to 1 millimeter. Reducing the size of the Earth by the same about it becomes a ball some 80 centimeters in diameter. The arc that the asteroid will pass through is now a kilometer across... That means that the chances of the Earth and the asteroid meeting are (dare I say it?) astronomical :D

Someone want to actually work out the odds for us?

Niles "making longterm plans" Calder
 
Lots of asteroids, each with tiny probabilities of hitting us, still add up to a reasonable probability of us getting hit on a regular basis - say once a century for a Tunguska size object. One day one of these will NOT land in the wilderness or the ocean...

I'm not particularly concerned about 2002 NT7: probably as we get more precise info on it, it will prove to be in a 'near miss' orbit for 2019. But even if it's not, we have sufficient advance warning to find a way to nudge it into a safer orbit.

(I am more worried about the undiscovered ones, which may creep up on from sunward undetected, like one a few weeks ago - it passed very close to Earth, but was not detected until AFTER its closest approach.)

As for the impact velocity of 2002 NT7, I have checked the figures with the latest data on the asteroid's orbit, and a figure of around 25 km/s (63,000 mph) is about right. (This is because the orbit in at a large angle to Earth's orbit - if the orbits were in the same plane the relative velocity would have been much lower, about 5.5 km/s.)
 
0.06 chance of being stoned out of YOUR brain. I will be alright of course. I will not flap my arms thereby I will present a smaller target. As my arms will be by my side I will exploit the position and carry my surfboard for the tidal waves - totally tubular man. Gnarly dude! Filthy out there (no idea what this jargon means of course but I am nonetheless impressed). As our fractured stone is peppering oit I will exploit my patented 'Avoid Creditors When Exiting Dwelling' routine and throw open the front door charge out and then dash about all over the front yard throwing in some very stylish side stepping while sporting an implausably raised right eyebrow and a WW1 German helmet with optional spike jauntily perched on my impossibly dashing and handsome head. Thus I will avoid any personal injury.:cool:
 
This New Scientist page discusses the chance of impact.
However, the small amount of data leaves large margins of error. The asteroid's position within its orbit at that time is uncertain by several tens of millions of kilometres, says Donald Yeomans of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. All calculations so far show the chance of an impact in 2019 is less than one in 100,000.
Click to expand...

BTW, Fireclown, watch your surfboard doesn't get impaled on your spiked helmet - it could get rough out there!

Gnarly rynner
 
There has been a lot of research on this stuff, uni'. There are also websites on TLPs (Transient Lunar Phenomena), and instruments left by the Apollo astronauts have recorded impacts seismographically.

It is the increased awareness of our vulnerability (which has only really developed over the last 20 years) that has prompted the recent searches for NEAs (near Earth asteroids). This website gives information and links.
 
You remember the 'Talking Point' message board I mentioned above ("What do you think about the asteroid? Should we be afraid")? I feel I must share a late entry with you.

"Bad idea. We need LESS asteroids, and MORE money for public services. "

Quite right too. Those crazy boffins, wasting our money on asteroids and getting us all into trouble.
 
Mankind has NO future unless

a) we can protect ourselves from bombardment from space (sooner or later, a big one will get us): or

b) we can spread humanity throughout space so that the loss of one planet is not the final catastrophe.

Both of these options (they are not exclusive) require space research.

To ignore the big picture and concentrate on short-term objectives is so foolish that, if the human race were to pursue it, we would not be worth saving. (We would, in effect, win a mega-Darwin Award, having sawn off the branch we were sitting on!)
 
I'm not happy about this at all. The world may end on my 61st birthday.

Under the old regulations, when women retired at 60, I would have enjoyed 1 year of retirement.

Now, I'll still be working. Is there any point in staying in the company pension scheme, I ask myself? It IS very expensive...

:eek!!!!:
 
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