Cambridge don launches bizarre study into coincidence
By Jo Macfarlane
Last updated at 12:31 AM on 15th January 2012
A Cambridge don is appealing to the public for tales of striking coincidences – so he can analyse just how strange they really are.
Professor David Spiegelhalter hopes the exercise will help him calculate the odds of such peculiar events occurring.
The professor of public understanding of risk at Cambridge University told Radio 4’s Today programme: ‘I usually deal with risk stories, the arbitrary accidents and illnesses that befall us.
‘This time we’re looking at the upside of the way chance works, these strange things that happen to us when we say, "What are the odds of that?"
‘We want to work out some of the chances. This isn’t a formal research study at all – we’ve just set up a website where people can send in their stories.They’re obviously riveting.’
The professor said the ‘classic’ coincidence involved being abroad and bumping into someone you know.
He told of one story submitted to the website which involved a man on holiday writing a postcard to a friend and then seeing him on a street in the South of France – allowing him to simply hand over the postcard without needing a stamp. 8)
Another coincidence involved a woman standing in a queue talking about actor Derek Jacobi, only to find the man himself standing in front of her.
Prof Spiegelhalter said: ‘I like the little quirky ones. Someone had a double-yolk egg for breakfast and then found out her friend was adopting twins.
‘I had one happen to me yesterday – I’ve become sensitised to them.
‘Someone phoned me about a news story concerning pancreatic cancer and bacon sandwiches, and I was eating a bacon sandwich.’ When presenter Sarah Montague joked about whether he had finished the sandwich, he quipped: ‘Of course.’
Prof Spiegelhalter also explained that sharing a birth date with several other family members is not as surprising as it might appear.
In fact, he says there is a one in 35,000 chance that a child will share a birthday with a parent and grandparent – better odds than winning the lottery.
After the interview ended, fellow Today programme presenter James Naughtie added his own bizarre experience.
Describing a trip to New York to produce a programme on the first anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks, he said the production crew had asked to see the length of the recording.
Naughtie, adopting a hushed tone, said: ‘We pressed the button to see how long it was and it was nine minutes, 11 seconds. Woooo! 9/11. There it was – it came up.’
Some of the other stories already submitted to Prof Spiegelhalter’s website include one in which a driver noticed the mileage on his car stood at 8,888 on August 8, 1988.
Another reported: ‘I have two unrelated godsons, for whom I was chosen a few years apart.
‘Both are called Edward. Both were born on October 4 (four years apart). Both their fathers are called Graham.’
Another recalled how, after his daughter had moved to Sheffield and advertised for a flatmate, he was standing by a cash machine in his home town in Derbyshire when a female driver pulled over to ask him directions.
It transpired she was the new flatmate and was looking for his daughter’s address.
To take part in the study, and read examples of the amazing coincidences submitted by others, visit the website
www.understandinguncertainty.org/coincidences
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