Collapse of U.S. Economy Imminent

A

Anonymous

Guest
It seems pretty mad though.

If I put everything I read together then the idea would be this;

March 2006 the USA goes bankrupt and launches a tactical nuclear strike against Iran no matter what they do.

2008 there is a full global nuclear holocaust and most people and most living things on the planet die.

2010 the resulting nuclear winter kills off most of the remenents of life and we leave nothing behind except cockroaches, water bears and the Great Wall of China - and some really big drawings of well endowed stick men on the sides of hills and in deserts etc, maybe some underground city or pyramids as well.

Oh - and the last pope will greet the mesiah who could be unknown to us or could be Jesus or an alien depending on your point of view.

Hell of a job that.

"Welcome Lord - sorry about the lack of worshippers etc, but hey - these cockroaches are really something eh?"

:D
 

TinFinger

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 31, 2005
Messages
269
Reaction score
0
Points
32
so its possible that america will be either help to ransom by canada
or possibly america invades to secure the oil???
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
No - Canada will sell cheap oil to the US, and they will be happy to do so.


Or else.

;)
 

TinFinger

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jul 31, 2005
Messages
269
Reaction score
0
Points
32
so this is why its been sweapt under the carpet that water can be split into water and oxygen.
no profit or dollars in that is there?
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I agree.

I think that there is more than one way to split a molocule chain (or skin a cat) - and I have not thought of any reason why we are still using oil - apart from our need for plastic (for computers or food wrapping or mobile phones or medical equipment for example).


The thing is that we are driving around in machines that run on explosions created by setting fire to a derivative of oil, and those vehicles are modifications of something that ran on the same principles around 100 years ago.

Why is it that we are so good and coming up with new ideas and never ever allowing them to be used?

How many new innovations or discoveries have been put on websites like newscientist and never seen the light of day?

I'm going to make another conspiracy thread and ask people...
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Sad to say IMHO we will be burning oil for energy until the incredibly rich folk who own it say we can stop.
Incidentally I came across this just now

http://financialsense.com/fsu/edito...ransport. Especially over melting permafrost.
 

Heckler

The unspeakable mass
Joined
Jul 16, 2004
Messages
5,289
Reaction score
2,223
Points
219
coldelephant said:
So extracting oil in Alaska might be quite expensive?
There are a fair few areas where the cost of extracting the oil outweighes the gain in actually selling it so it isn't done.

At least for the time being. If other oil reserves run out then the cost goes up and presumably the viability goes up.
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Sorry coldeliphant I missed your ironic wink and "or else" cos I thought they were your signature, consider me slapped down,, and chastened :oops:
 

littleblackduck

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 16, 2001
Messages
455
Reaction score
7
Points
49
TinFinger said:
so its possible that america will be either help (sic) to ransom by canada
or possibly america invades to secure the oil???
Can't be done.

Canada signed the FTA and NAFTA, which guarantee that Americans can buy Canadian oil at the same price that Canadians do. Canada can't just up the price of oil--it would have to pay the same price. In fact, to up domestic consumption of oil significantly it would have to import foreign oil because Canada has also guaranteed not cutting off supply.

Canada promised not to cut the US off. To escape from this, it would have to leave NAFTA, which would have ruinous repercussions, and since the Canadian armed forces handily fit into a large football stadium, no chance of Canada invading the US using the plans that were drawn up in the 1920s unless we can find allies who could do this by themselves.

The only way Canada can refuse to sell oil to the US is if we find a cheaper substitute for oil and simply keep it in the ground forever. It is quite simply impossible for Canada to just cut the US off or jack up the prices like Arabs. In fact, even Arabs can't jack up the prices--the plans to invade a Mideastern country to ensure US oil supply were drawn up in 1973--under Richard Nixon. Which is where Dick Cheney, Geo. H.W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, etc., were in 1973. Under Richard Nixon.

If you know what you are doing or have a bit of sense and luck, you could still make some good money investing in Canadian oil. The oil market is global and oil sells at the market rate everywhere, even in Canada, which imports a lot of oil to the East Coast although it has lots in the West.

Alas, there is no way to screw the Yankees, so we piss in the beer. That's why it is so much stronger than American beer. Even the beer is no longer ours--the Dutch own Labatts and Coors merged with Molsen, although it is an unhappy marriage. Everything else is more or less microbreweries, at least compared with the Big Two.

And even if TinFinger actually was asking if Canada would help the United States to ransom, the answer is either (1) we can't because we don't have enough men under arms or (2) hey, we've already helped them to a King's Ransom.

Damn Mulroney! Forget Cromwell. Curse people with Brian Mulroney!

As for the oil sands (or shales), they could become marketable because of higher prices but it is mostly better extraction technology which has been driving development recently.

The Mideast still has eveybody, even Canada, over a barrel though, because nobody wants to invest in refineries since oil hit the $10 a barrel range and won't for years to come. Dependency on Mideast and Central Asian oil will only increase even if there is plenty left--if we go over the hump sooner rather than later, things will get mighty nasty.

The US is actually sitting pretty--it imports more oil from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela than the Mideast. In fact, counting natural gas, Canada accounts for more US imports than Saudi Arabia. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) terminals are being built at a considerable pace. There's a lot more of the stuff and you can make gas from coal also, so maybe the oil hump won't be a total disaster. I remember a Stephen Leacock news story parody that declared the coal would run out by circa 1961. It didn't. There's hundreds of years worth at current rates of consumption.

Europe and Japan are out on a limb because of their heavy dependance on the Mideast and Russian fossil fuels, China is doing its damnest to buy oil anywhere, but especially in Central Asia which is right next door.

The US economy is so enormous (and efficient compared every other economy unless you count wastrel consumption) that it can survive much abuse. It will probably shrug off George Bush's malfeasances--the wars, the tax cuts, the idiot policies on the environment, science, etc.

But there is always a chance of something horrible going wrong--most Americans and Canadians are heavily in debt and saving nothing, and while the Canadian government has been shedding debt like gangbusters since a peak in 1994 or thereabouts, the consumer debtor has picked up the slack (except for the top 20%, who are saving at a rate over 20% in Canada, less in the US). Much of the world has been headed in the same direction--savings rates have dropped even in Japan. Only the Chinese save and they are forced to save by State Capitalism.

Greenspan really has been a bit of a Wizard of Oz--which is to say a big phoney who has kept people believing they were in a gem of an economy via the strategic use of greenback-coloured glasses--but hey, he's still no George Bush. And it was the Keynsian policies that ended the Great Depression which prevented the nextGreat Depression from happening years ago--we may run out of luck. Conservatives have been garroting the public welfare tree slowly with a wire of taxcuts but they may yet chop it down and burn it, paving the way for a world economic collapse when the masses find they have run out of credit lines to throw to the salvation of the economy when the markets plummet.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Found this when I was mooching around the net Googling at things;

According to chief economists, the American economy is so close to collapse its getting scary. But don't take my word for it, see what people in authority have been saying about the US economy:
"The consequences for the US economy of doing nothing could be severe." - Alan Greenspan.

"The world is set to jump off the top of a waterfall without knowing how deep the water is below." - Kenneth Rogoff, IMF (International Monetary Fund) Head of Economic Research.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The Top Ten Reasons Why the US Economy Will Collapse:
(And by collapse, we mean go into a serious depression.)
See the reasons the author put by clicking here
 

Jerry_B

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Apr 15, 2002
Messages
8,054
Reaction score
59
Points
129
Not what I'd call any sort of erudite analysis ;)
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
It's a bit iffy I know, especially the bit where they say that in business Mandarin Chinese is more important than English in order to back up their idea that China is now economically more important than the USA.

Nevertheless, it raises questions.

Is the USA really losing billions per day?
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Found this comment re an article about US 'Space Weapons';

The world isn't as safe as everyone likes to think it is - so it's no wonder US defence budgets are high! It's not just about Iran's aim to go nuclear, I believe it's all about the petro-dollar and the possibility of the US $'s demise as the global currency for energy. Many nations around the world, including USA's closest friends, are becoming more alarmed about the US$. Saudi-led OPEC ministers are becoming uncomfortable with the declining US$ as well. Russian president Putin is planning to move to the Euro as its preferred energy currency and hence will no longer use the US$. Most of their trade is with Europe - so it's in their interest. Iran is planning the same. Indonisia, Brazil, Venezuela and many more possibly China! It's not looking good. If the US$ looses it position as the global energy currency, many global federal reserves will wash out their US$ reserves in favour of the Euro and/or gold. The consequences for the US are devasting. I'm surprised that the media in the US hasn't been too eager to report on this possibility. The worrying thing now is, unlike Iraq, I don't think the US government has the will-power to go to war with Iran as it did in Iraq! So maybe weapons in space isn't at all that bad after all! I hope I'm completely wrong!

Posted by: Jason at March 10, 2006 05:01 AM
I know this is only a comment, but could anybody shed light on whether these bits of the comment are true;

Many nations around the world, including USA's closest friends, are becoming more alarmed about the US$. Saudi-led OPEC ministers are becoming uncomfortable with the declining US$ as well. Russian president Putin is planning to move to the Euro as its preferred energy currency and hence will no longer use the US$. Most of their trade is with Europe - so it's in their interest. Iran is planning the same. Indonisia, Brazil, Venezuela and many more possibly China!
Is any of this true?


If the US$ looses it position as the global energy currency, many global federal reserves will wash out their US$ reserves in favour of the Euro and/or gold. The consequences for the US are devasting.
Is that true?

I've been told before that the US income is so huge that their debt of $8 Trillion is nothing compared to it. Is that statement true as well?

:?
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Think how good a US economic collapse will be for the climate, there are some truly scary articles over on the daily grail, every CLOUD has a silver lining along with what ever else we've pumped out nearby. :cry: :evil:
 

Jerry_B

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Apr 15, 2002
Messages
8,054
Reaction score
59
Points
129
coldelephant said:
If the US$ looses it position as the global energy currency, many global federal reserves will wash out their US$ reserves in favour of the Euro and/or gold. The consequences for the US are devasting.
Is that true?

I've been told before that the US income is so huge that their debt of $8 Trillion is nothing compared to it. Is that statement true as well?
It all depends if there's a run on the currecy market against the dollar. That is, whether that market decides to dump the dollar in favour of the Euro. If currency markets are awash with dollars which people are not buying, the value of the currency will decline. This also means that any countries with monetary stockpiles that are valued in dollars may possibly also sell them all off in favour of another currency. It doesn't pay to have huge chunks of money in a currency whose value is in decline or freefall.

WRT the income/debt equation, debts are only manageable - even with a fairly strong income - if the country can afford them, and that they're not all called in at once for the full amount. There needs to be some fluidity. So the US may have 8 trillion in debt. but it's not trying to pay that amount off all at once - if it had to, that would cause problems. And if the dollar went into decline, it's possible that debtors may try to recover what they're owed.

That said, the whole process can be fiendishly complicated. If you want an overview of how these processes can go wrong, google for the Wall Street Crash.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Hi Jerry

Thanks for the heads up

Found something (a bit biased, but historicaly accurate I think, let me know if it is Jerry).

Here is what I found;

and the proliferation of holding companies and investment trusts and the extent of large bank loans in the U.S. had accumulated a vast mass of fictitious capital, and its collapse made this crash particularly spectacular. The extent of capitalist development meant that the effects of the crash were more devastating than ever before; every sector of the economy was tied up in bank loans and share issues. When the value of stocks fell, those who had invested in them lost money, including banks who had loaned money to failed firms; banks in trouble called in their loans, borrowers were invariably unable to pay and were repossessed and their businesses closed down; employees were put off and creditors remained unpaid, triggering an indefinite chain of bankruptcies and ejecting millions onto the dole queues; when the factories closed down people had no alternative means of livelihood. The preceding rapid growth of the world market meant that, as the saying went, “When America sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold”, and stock markets crashed across the world in the wake of the Wall Street Crash, plunging the world into the Great Depression.
Source
 

Jerry_B

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Apr 15, 2002
Messages
8,054
Reaction score
59
Points
129
Well... it's okay, as a rough guide (and if you place the Marxist terms to one side). It does seem to imply that the whole system involves everyone conning each other, rather than acknowledging the role of credit (after all, even banknotes are a form of letter of credit). That said, exaggeration of worth of any given commodity or company is never good - look at what happened with Enron, for example.
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
According to this it is going to fail for the proles (just about everyone), but the predators will do rather nicely thanks very much

http://www.motherjones.com/commentary/c ... state.html

WHAT IS THE REAL NATURE of American capitalism today? Is it a grand national adventure, as politicians and textbooks aver, in which markets provide the framework for benign competition, from which emerges the greatest good for the greatest number? Or is it the domain of class struggle, even a “global class war,” as the title of Jeff Faux’s new book would have it, in which the “party of Davos” outmaneuvers the remnants of the organized working class?

The doctrines of the “law and economics” movement, now ascendant in our courts, hold that if people are rational, if markets can be “contested,” if memory is good and information adequate, then firms will adhere on their own to norms of honorable conduct. Any public presence in the economy undermines this. Even insurance—whether deposit insurance or Social Security—is perverse, for it encourages irresponsible risktaking. Banks will lend to bad clients, workers will “live for today,” companies will speculate with their pension funds; the movement has even argued that seat belts foster reckless driving. Insurance, in other words, creates a “moral hazard” for which “market discipline” is the cure; all works for the best when thought and planning do not interfere. It’s a strange vision, and if we weren’t governed by people like John Roberts and Sam Alito, who pretend to believe it, it would scarcely be worth our attention.

The idea of class struggle goes back a long way; perhaps it really is “the history of all hitherto existing society,” as Marx and Engels famously declared. But if the world is ruled by a monied elite, then to what extent do middle-class working Americans compose part of the global proletariat? The honest answer can only be: not much. The political decline of the left surely flows in part from rhetoric that no longer matches experience; for the most part, American voters do not live on the Malthusian margin. Dollars command the world’s goods, rupees do not; membership in the dollar economy makes every working American, to some degree, complicit in the capitalist class.

In the mixed-economy America I grew up in, there existed a post-capitalist, post-Marxian vision of middle-class identity. It consisted of shared assets and entitlements, of which the bedrock was public education, access to college, good housing, full employment at living wages, Medicare, and Social Security. These programs, publicly provided, financed, or guaranteed, had softened the rough edges of Great Depression capitalism, rewarding the sacrifices that won the Second World War. They also showcased America, demonstrating to those behind the Iron Curtain that regulated capitalism could yield prosperity far beyond the capacities of state planning. (This, and not the arms race, ultimately brought down the Soviet empire.) These middle-class institutions survive in America today, but they are frayed and tattered from constant attack. And the division between those included and those excluded is large and obvious to all.

Today, the signature of modern American capitalism is neither benign competition, nor class struggle, nor an inclusive middle-class utopia. Instead, predation has become the dominant feature—a system wherein the rich have come to feast on decaying systems built for the middle class. The predatory class is not the whole of the wealthy; it may be opposed by many others of similar wealth. But it is the defining feature, the leading force. And its agents are in full control of the government under which we live.

Our rulers deliver favors to their clients. These range from Native American casino operators, to Appalachian coal companies, to Saipan sweatshop operators, to the would-be oil field operators of Iraq. They include the misanthropes who led the campaign to abolish the estate tax; Charles Schwab, who suggested the dividend tax cut of 2003; the “Benedict Arnold” companies who move their taxable income offshore; and the financial institutions behind last year’s bankruptcy bill. Everywhere you look, public decisions yield gains to specific private entities.

For in a predatory regime, nothing is done for public reasons. Indeed, the men in charge do not recognize that “public purposes” exist. They have friends, and enemies, and as for the rest—we’re the prey. Hurricane Katrina illustrated this perfectly, as Halliburton scooped up contracts and Bush hamstrung Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic governor of Louisiana. The population of New Orleans was, at best, an afterthought; once dispersed, it was quickly forgotten.

The predator-prey model explains some things that other models cannot: in particular, cycles of prosperity and depression. Growth among the prey stimulates predation. The two populations grow together at first, but when the balance of power shifts toward the predators (through rising interest rates, utility rates, oil prices, or embezzlement), both can crash abruptly. When they do, it takes a long time for either to recover.

The predatory model can also help us understand why many rich people have come to hate the Bush administration. For predation is the enemy of honest business. In a world where the winners are all connected, it’s not only the prey who lose out. It’s everyone who hasn’t licked the appropriate boots. Predatory regimes are like protection rackets: powerful and feared, but neither loved nor respected. They do not enjoy a broad political base.

In a predatory economy, the rules imagined by the law and economics crowd don’t apply. There’s no market discipline. Predators compete not by following the rules but by breaking them. They take the business-school view of law: Rules are not designed to guide behavior but laid down to define the limits of unpunished conduct. Once one gets close to the line, stepping over it is easy. A predatory economy is criminogenic: It fosters and rewards criminal behavior.

Why don’t markets provide the discipline? Why don’t “reputation effects” secure good behavior? Economists have been slow to answer these questions, but now we have a full-blown theory in a book by my colleague William K. Black, The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One. Black was the lawyer/whistle-blower in the Savings and Loan and Keating Five scandals; he later took a degree in criminology. His theory of “control fraud” addresses the situation in which the leader of an organization uses his company as a “weapon” of fraud and a “shield” against prosecution—a situation with which law and economics cannot cope.

For instance, law and economics argues that top accounting firms will protect their own reputations by ferreting out fraud in their clients. But, as with Enron, Tyco, and WorldCom, at every major S&L control fraud was protected by clean audits from top accountants: You hire the top firm to get the clean opinion. Moral hazard theory shifts the blame for financial collapse to the incentives implicit in insurance, but Black shows that the large frauds were nearly all committed in institutions taken over for that purpose by criminal networks, often by big players like Charles Keating, Michael Milken, and Don Dixon. And there’s another thing about predatory institutions. They invariably fail in the end. They fail because they are meant to fail. Predators suck the life from the businesses they command, concealing the fact for as long as possible behind fraudulent accounting and hugely complex transactions; that’s the looter’s point.

That a government run by people rooted in this culture should also be predatory isn’t surprising—and the link between George H.W. Bush, who led the deregulation of the S&Ls, his son Neil, who ran a corrupt S&L, and Neil’s brother George, for whom Ken Lay sent thugs to Florida in 2000 on the Enron plane, could hardly be any closer. But aside from occasional references to “kleptocracy” in other countries, economic opinion has been slow to recognize this. Thinking wistfully, we assume that government wants to do good, and its failure to do so is a matter of incompetence.

But if the government is a predator, then it will fail: not merely politically, but in every substantial way. Government will not cope with global warming, or Hurricane Katrina, or Iraq—not because it is incompetent but because it is willfully indifferent to the problem of competence. The questions are, in what ways will the failure hit the population? And what mechanisms survive for calling the predators to account? Unfortunately, at the highest levels, one cannot rely on the justice system, thanks to the power of the pardon. It’s politics or nothing, recognizing that in a world of predators, all established parties are corrupted in part.

So, how can the political system reform itself? How can we reestablish checks, balances, countervailing power, and a sense of public purpose? How can we get modern economic predation back under control, restoring the possibilities not only for progressive social action but also—just as important—for honest private economic activity? Until we can answer those questions, the predators will run wild.

James K. Galbraith teaches economics at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas-Austin. He previously served in several positions on the staff of the U.S. Congress, including executive director of the Joint Economic Committee.
 

bazizmaduno

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Feb 12, 2003
Messages
280
Reaction score
4
Points
49
2 months to the oil bourse in Iran?...ok

Vedic Astrology Predictions
New Moon Charts for 2006
by Joni Patry

The New Moon charts on this page are calculated for Washington, D.C. to show how planetary alignments will affect the United States in 2006. Astrological houses are defined by the rising sign based on the exact minute of the New Moon, using Washington, D.C. as the place of birth.

In Vedic astrology, the New Moon is viewed as the beginning of each month. Planetary configurations reveal events occurring during a month. To predict events which will effect the United States in 2006, I have used both the USA birth chart and the birth chart of the President of the United States, George W. Bush.

New Moon
July 25, 2006
8 degrees Cancer
Nakshatra Pushya

The new Moon will be with Saturn in the 4th house this month in Cancer. This represents home and family, as well as issues of security. I believe our sense of security will be threatened and we will feel vulnerable.

Saturn will quincunx the Uranus 6/8 relationship, indicating the breakdown of old rules set by society and the dawning of new civilizations. The change will only be a seedling now, but it will be a beginning. This will still be a crisis period. There will be so much confusion at this time that it will not be possible to see the positive aspects that will grow out of this in the future.

Jupiter will turn direct at 15 degrees of Libra July 6th. This will influence the need and progress toward peace and balance, particularly within the legal system. Libra represents fairness. It can also bring prosperity in the world of business.

Mars will oppose Neptune July 7th, indicating deception and disillusionment. Since Saturn and Mars are water signs, this could indicate a plague that spreads through water. Neptune also rules oil. With Mars aspecting it, oil prices could escalate, which would cause another blow to the U.S. economy.

The Moon will conjunct Neptune and oppose Saturn July 13th, clouding the minds of many. There will be depression based on illusions. The truth cannot be seen at this time. We will be plagued by storms and extremes of water for the next few months.

Mercury will turns retrograde July 4th, 7 degrees of Cancer. Spend more time with your family and visit older relatives. This is not a time to begin new projects or sign contracts. Mercury will turn direct July 28th at 27 degrees of Gemini. Forward movement can begin after this date.

Mars will aspect Rahu (8th aspect) July 18th, indicating trouble. Both of these planets represent accidents. With Rahu in the 12th house, there may be an upsetting event concerning abductions or secretive crimes.

Jupiter will aspect Venus July 26th, producing interest in creativity. Venus will be in Gemini, signifying creativity that will manifest through literary works or musical creations. There will be donations and prosperity for the arts globally.

Saturn will be nearing the aspect to President Bush’s natal Moon and Jupiter. This will be a very difficult year for him personally. His will experience setbacks and delays in his goals.


from:
http://www.galacticcenter.org/2006_predictions.htm#July_25,_2006

...but, of course, no-one believes horroscopes :shock:
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
A great Fortean aspect to this thread bazizmaduno, I book marked your link as that reading seamed oddly prescient 8) 8) :D
 

morningstar667

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Jan 25, 2006
Messages
274
Reaction score
7
Points
34
Don't Know if this has been posted before but here's Noam Chomsky on Failed Stateshttp://tinyurl.com/r3859
Goes into the reasons why...Also worth seeing for the way the presenters rudely interrupt him in full flow! Runs for about 48 minutes.Enjoy!!
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Interesting piece on the bourse ramifications

http://tinyurl.com/m85ym

Incredibly, some neocon warmongers are now openly calling for a strike on Iran because of the bourse.

On May 8, Bush apologist Jerome Corsi penned an editorial entitled “Iran Signs It’s Own Death Warrant.” Corsi is the same GOP hack who helped sponsor the Swift Boat ads & wrote Unfit for Command during the staged 2004 presidential election. In his article he admits a major reason for the US invasion of Iraq was the oil-for-euros policy of Saddam Hussein, and warns of China’s interest in the oil bourse.

He then goes further, predicting an imminent US attack: “If Iran wants also to seriously threaten the dollar's position as a dominant foreign reserve currency, a war becomes almost certain. The Iranian oil bourse may never be mentioned by U.S. policymakers as a official reason the United States decides to go to war with Iran, but it may end up being the straw that broke the camel's back.”

According to Forbes, the bourse may open this week. In their May 7 coverage, they suggest the electronic oil market is ready for trading: “Iran's oil ministry on Friday also made a move to establish an oil-trading market denominated in euros instead of U.S. dollars, granting a license for the bourse, according to a report from the country's state-run television.
Before this week, the mainstream media had tried desperately tried to blackout news about the bourse. A small mention came in a UPI article from April 25, while an April 2 piece in the San Francisco Chronicle warned, “the bourse would rival the New York Mercantile Exchange and International Petroleum Exchange in London -- the twin centers of the oil-trading world. They quoted the cogent analysis of finance scholar Krassimir Petrov, who wrote, “The Iranian government has finally developed the ultimate 'nuclear' weapon that can swiftly destroy the financial system underpinning the American Empire."

Why would Iran’s oil exchange present such a threat to the U.S. dollar and worldwide economy?

The dollar accounts for more than two thirds of all central bank reserves worldwide because all international oil transactions have to be in US Dollars. This reserve status creates a constant demand for dollars, despite the underlying weakness of the U.S. economy. Hence, central banks are willing to overlook the massive trade and budget deficits are expanding with on-the-books Federal debt at record highs over 9 trillion and a fiscal gap estimated at $72 trillion.

Russia’s Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin recently warned of a dollar collapse on April 21 at the opening spring session of the International Monetary Fund. He said “Russia cannot consider the dollar as a reliable reserve currency because of its instability. This currency has devalued by 40% against the euro in recent years.” Two years ago Russia had nearly 90% holdings in US dollars and today that proportion has fallen to below 80%

The same IMF conference featured the release of the 2006 World Economic Outlook, which warned of a U.S. dollar collapse due to global trade imbalances, spiraling U.S. debt, and the demise of the petrodollar reserve standard. The report stated, "global current account imbalances are likely to remain at elevated levels for longer than would otherwise have been the case, heightening the risk of sudden disorderly adjustment
Within hushed circles on Wall Street, the impending dollar crisis has been long predicted. In a closed-door meeting in 2004, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley, Stephen Roach, predicted “economic Armageddon.”

The Boston Herald article reported Roach’s comments as follows: “His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic "Armageddon…Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ‘we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual Armageddon.’"
Furthermore, globalist banker & billionaire Warren Buffett is warning of a global financial collapse and the precipitous drop in the dollar in a recent Forbes Magazine. Buffett has personally bet at least $20 billion against the U.S. dollar, and said the following: "The rest of the world owns $10 trillion of us, or $3 trillion net. If lots of people try to leave the market, we'll have chaos because they won't get through the door."
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Not wanting the western world to be plunged into poverty I hope the clever folk at the Whitehouse/fed res have a plan,

http://www.kitco.com/ind/AuthenticMoney/may082006.html

How does a currency collapse? And the U.S. $?

Excerpts From – “Gold Forecaster – Global Watch” Printer Friendly Version

May 8, 2006

www.goldforecaster.com

When a currency loses the confidence of its people, its fall becomes exponential, as has happened to the Zimbabwe $, where in 1982 one U.S.$ equalled 1 Zimbabwe $. Today around Z$200,000 buys one U.S. $ if you can find someone idiot enough to sell one for the Z$.

In day-to-day terms, the smallest note in Zimbabwe a Z$500 is the size of a U.S.$. The price of a single-ply sheet of toilet paper is more expensive at around Z$867.

The U.S.$ is nowhere near there, but clearly the U.S. Administration has no plan or even desire to rectify the U.S. Trade deficit. Consequently, we are seeing a growing number of Central Banks turning to the Euro for its reserves and away from the U.S.$.

Whilst most observers and particularly U.S. observers like to have tangible facts and numbers with which to mathematically gauge the present and the different possible futures, a collapsing currency situation is not as neatly gaugeable. Indeed it is driven in stages of ‘confidence’, which are rarely measurable in advance.

For instance we see today the move of the Pension and other long-term funds into the gold E.T.F.’ one finds there are no mathematically measurable factors with which to measure the pace of change to these funds. Yes, the number of ‘Road-shows’ the World Gold Council does affects this move to some extent, but how do you measure the spread of that knowledge and resulting investment in the E.T.F.’s outside of that? How does one measure the forces causing uncertainty and falling ‘confidence’.

It is an emotional progression, one that moves in lurches as particular incidents destroy confidence limb by limb. In such a climate a steady degeneration of confidence lead to an effect we shall call a "plateau - cliff" process.

• As confidence is whittled away the currency appears relatively stable.
• Then a particular event will occur that triggers a breakdown and the currency drops suddenly, like falling off a cliff, until it finds a short-term bottom and it holds that level for a period as though on a plateau. The process then repeats itself.
• The degeneration then accelerates, so the fall from the cliff to the next stable plateau happens more quickly.
• Then the height of the cliff [the fall] extends until it grows at an exponential basis.
• The final collapse will occur when the currency is completely discredited and used only by those unfortunate to have no other choice. Alternatively the currency is changed to a new one, one whose issue is backed by assets [Such as land - after the Weimar republic] and limited to a fixed relationship to those assets until confidence is restored by a healthy economy and a balanced Balance of Payments. This provides a basis in which to be confident about currency.

However, were the $ heading for a collapse, the U.S. $, a global reserve asset, nothing in the U.S. such as land or any other fixed U.S. asset would suffice. The asset would have to be accessible by its creditors, outside the States who would have to have a willingness to accept that asset in the case of a default by the U.S. The use of the $ domestically and internationally brings such problems that in the final extreme conditions the $ is inadequate as a global reserve currency.

But for the market to whittle away confidence in the $ would take some time. But we believe that it will happen.

• Look back a couple of years and we saw the $ reigning supreme.
• Then warnings were given against it as the Trade deficit began to grow.
• The Fed or the Administration then allied itself to the euro, giving it the respite it has enjoyed over the last year.
• Now there seems to be a breaking down of the $ of late and some Central Banks switching to the Euro out of the $. These were three distinct stages.
• The next stage is for the $ to fall heavily against the Euro and Euro oriented currencies.
• Next will come the defence of the $ until the weight of selling pressure exhausts the $ against other currencies [please note the U.S. has few foreign currencies left in its hands with which to defend the $, but the Fed put in place measures to allow it intervene in the international foreign exchanges.]
• This could delay the fall for some time, but history has shown that when a Central Bank defends a rate in the market, it gives in periodically and devalues. If insufficient it has to defend again and again.
• I have no doubt that Central Banks will use this defence to unload their dollars back to the States.
• At some stage the U.S. will have to impose Controls to prevent foreign capital from exiting the States and rejecting dollars coming home. These are called Exchange Controls.
• When this happens many currencies will begin facing the same problems as their reserves become suspect too and they cannot defend their own Balance of Payments deficits.
• At this point for the global economy to function adequately, a new “Global Currency” will have to be established and be supplied sufficient so as to regain global confidence. We cannot see this happening without gold in there to a greater or lesser extent. Of course this will have to be at prices believed by all nations, not just individuals!

During this process confidence in the currency will be the measuring factor, a nebulous, unstable element in itself. The process of the decay of confidence is described above. But confidence could well go down dramatically from the point we are at now with the $ in the monetary system. Soon the cliffs will extend until the defence of the currency comes, then a long plateau while the dollar is defended, until the heavy falls begin.

The international trading power of the States will dominate just how far the dollar will fall. Of course if the States manages to show it is in the process of balancing the Balance of Payments beforehand [which may not mean the complete elimination of the Trade deficit] the demand for dollars will probably overcome the supply. But inevitably that action will mean a huge recession for the States, which could prove an internal nightmare and cause a global recession of its own.

It is probable that the Administration would isolate the U.S.A. from the rest of the world by severe Exchange Control measures, which will create its own internal boom, sooner or later. We will produce an article, or series thereof, at the right time, on this subject.
 

crunchy5

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 24, 2005
Messages
1,754
Reaction score
10
Points
54
Item from Bloomberg

http://tinyurl.com/kbn7t

[/quote]Asia Is Getting Ready to Dump the Dollar Peg: Andy Mukherjee

May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Li Yong, China's vice minister for finance, said he had heard a ``rumor'' that the U.S. dollar was headed for a 25 percent drop. If the gossip was true, the consequences would be ``shocking,'' he said.

Li's comment, which he made at a discussion on global financial imbalances last week at the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank in the Indian city of Hyderabad, was aimed directly at fellow panelist Tim Adams, the U.S. Treasury undersecretary of international affairs.

The unspoken message was: ``Don't try to talk the dollar down.'' And Adams knew better than to ask, ``Well, what are you going to do about it?'' The answer to that question has already begun taking shape: Asia may be getting ready to fix its currencies to a local anchor, dumping the region's unofficial dollar peg.

Even as they continue to pile up U.S. debt in their foreign- exchange reserves to keep their currencies stable against the dollar, Asian nations, China among them, are preparing for a scenario where the dollar does indeed collapse under the weight of a record U.S. current account deficit.

The rest of the link carries on covering the possible setting up of an acu similar to the long forgotten ecu it's very interesting
 

Pietro_Mercurios

Gone But Not Forgotten
(ACCOUNT RETIRED)
Joined
Aug 10, 2005
Messages
12,019
Reaction score
186
Points
114
Why, it was only the other week, when George W. Bush was remonstrating, at some length, with the Chinese about the alleged undervaluation of their currency (the yuan), that I realized how funny it seemed, risible even, if the stories about the overvaluation of the dollar were true.

Why George W. could practically bring the two currency together in parity, yuan for dollar, overnight!

You know, like in 1929.
http://www.chinatoday.com/fin/mon/

CHINESE CURRENCY - Renminbi (RMB)

1 yuan = 10 jiao; 1 jiao = 10 fen.
Current Exchange Rate with U.S. Dollar: $100 USD = ABOUT 830 yuan RMB

Note: In Chinese "Renminbi" (RMB) means "People's Currency"
Jerry_B will probably correct me on this. ;)
 

Heckler

The unspeakable mass
Joined
Jul 16, 2004
Messages
5,289
Reaction score
2,223
Points
219
Living on borrowed dimes

It's not just Britons who are struggling under mountains of debt, says Paul Harris. Consumer and government spending has got out of control in the United States too

My friend lived for a while on credit cards. He had no money coming in, lots going out and only the cards to buy things. He had little intention of making repayments, and less ability to do so.
His credit rating plummeted as debts mounted. His phone was besieged by callers demanding he start a repayment plan. But amazingly at the same time other credit card firms began to clamour to lend him more money. Out of the blue, credit card companies he had never heard of would send him attractive offers through the post.

His mailbox was stuffed with them. All offered instant cash. Just sign the contracts, they promised, send them off and begin spending. It was insane.

Then one day in a bar in SoHo he opened an envelope and out slipped a shiny new silver credit card. The companies gave up sending him contracts, upping their game by delivering actual credit cards instead. It was preapproved for thousands of available dollars. He just had to sign it and he could buy the whole bar a round of drinks.

'This is crazy,' he said. The card came with a huge contract in tiny type and you got the feeling that buried in it somewhere were clauses about severed racehorse heads and, right at the bottom, possibly one surrendering the rights to your eternal soul.

Now this guy's lifestyle choices are far from advisable. But, sadly, it provides a worrying insight into how much of the American economy works. It is all built on massive debt. And worryingly, there are a number of people who believe it also might just stop working.

A fax came through to my office the other week, touting a book on just that subject. The publishers blurb promised; 'A chilling picture of a debt bloated America that seems headed down the same self destructive path of the Roman Empire.' Now, if that does not get your attention, nothing will.

Here are some figures. Whatever your politics, they should scare you. The US federal debt stands at $8.2 trillion. Yes: trillion with a T. American household debt - meaning ordinary Americans' mortgages and such debts - dwarfs even that. It stands at $11 trillion.

The concept of saving has all but disappeared in the United States. Last year the personal savings rate hit its lowest level since 1933 - during the Great Depression. Then mass unemployment and economic collapse meant Americans could not save. Now debt is driven by the opposite force: mass consumption. Living on debt has become a preferred lifestyle choice when once it was an emergency hardship.

On an individual and a government level America is spending way beyond its means. The average American household now owes $8,000 in debt on credit cards alone. Meanwhile the government equivalent of credit card spending has seen the deficit hit a record $423bn. With the war in Iraq showing no sign of ending and the imminent retirement of millions of baby boomers, there is little ability - or some might say, will - to pay that money back.

This looks like a system waiting for collapse. Certainly that's the argument of Empire of Debt, the new book whose publicist is so keen to invoke the Fall of Rome. Authored by financial writers Addison Wiggin and Bill Bonner, it argues a system so full of debt must collapse sooner or later.

They think sooner. 'The denial that comforts us today also keeps us from seeing the catastrophe that's rushing towards us like the proverbial freight train,' says Wiggin.

Of course, there are those who say this is all so much doom mongering. Some say debt is not really a problem. It is, in fact, a sign of people's faith in American economic health. Others say the sheer size of the numbers is misleading. Yes, the budget deficit is a record, but they point out that as a percentage of gross domestic product it is actually less than in the mid-Eighties. There have been previous scares, they point out, and the economy and Wall Street are still growing strongly.

This is where the argument becomes one between economists. I do not have the answer. I just remember my friend sitting in the bar in SoHo holding his new credit card. Should he damn the consequences and spend, spend, spend? He cut it up. The card was too easy. Money that simple had to have serious fallout further down the line. There is a lesson in that for all Americans. Not least the one sitting in the White House.
Source
 
Top