feinman said:
Great research! So, what do YOU think happened to these folks? Yes you can say "I don't know", or "Maybe they were attacked by the Flying Spaghetti Monster" (but please don't)
The only thing I'm reasonably confident in believing is that the Dyatlov Pass tragedy was the result of a combination of events and poor decisions (quite possibly under duress) that doomed the party without any external influence. The real mystery is what scenario unfolded ...
Over the years I've played around with this puzzle I keep coming back to a small set of apparent facts:
- On 1 February the party set out from their last campsite (in the valley to the southeast) to cross the pass and camp in the valley beyond (the same valley into which they fled and died).
- They got a late start and made less progress than expected (this much is evident from the last diary entries). They were quite likely more exhausted than they'd been to that point, and I wouldn't be surprised if nerves were frayed.
*NOTE: As I'd previously commented in this thread, I'm still mystified as to why they didn't simply ski down-slope to the tree cover in the valley once they'd attained the pass. It was only about a kilometer, all downhill, and they were already on skis. It shouldn't have taken long to go the extra distance ...
- They found themselves on the exposed flank of the mountain in snowstorm conditions (as the last photos demonstrate) as daylight was failing. Visibility wasn't all that good. They picked a site directly down-slope from the primary peak - an odd choice I suspect was motivated by a combination of frustration and nominal protection from the west winds.
- They never assembled the little stove that was their only heat source. Indeed, some accounts claim they weren't carrying any fuel for it because they'd planned to be camping that night in the valley. (Some searchers claimed no firewood was present; one or more others claimed to have found a single log.)
*NOTE: Other accounts claim Dyatlov's last-minute replanning (back at the village from which they'd set out) would have had them stay above the treeline and proceed toward Mount Ortoten on a 'high road' path.
- All interpretations seem to agree they were not prepared to make the rest of the trip without obtaining additional fuel, even if they had to make side trips off the ridge line to get it.
Beyond this, we cross into the realm of pure speculation. The scenario I currently favor goes like this ...
I tend to think the conditions were bad enough that getting fuel and starting a fire became a priority. This crisis point may not have happened until the following day (we know they all died circa 6-8 hours after the final meal, but it's merely assumed the last meal was the one noted in the last journal entry).
Two of the party (Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle) set out to the valley below to get fuel. They were fully clothed and had boots.
They hadn't returned by the time either (a) a snow-slip collapsed the tent; (b) something other than an actual snow-impact (e.g., noise) convinced everyone else an avalanche was occurring or imminent; or (c) everyone at the tent was already in the throes of early hypothermia.
Either out of panic or hypothermic delusion, the rest of the party descended to the valley (to the cedar tree site) and tried to start a fire. They succeeded, but couldn't keep the fire going.
I believe Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle built the den down in the valley (70 -75 meters from the cedar tree). Its construction seemed too 'rational' to have been done by the under-clothed others. I have no opinion on whether they built it before the others descended off the mountain or afterward. It might have been that either (a) they concluded they weren't going to make it back to the tent soon or (b) one or both of them suffered some of their (impact / compression) injuries and took emergency action to survive in place.
There's no clear evidence that Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle were ever at the cedar tree with the others. They were so well-clothed (with their own clothing) that one has to wonder why none of their clothing was given to anyone else if they'd been with the ill-clothed others. The bodies of these two were not noted as showing any burns (to either flesh or clothing), as were noted for all the other 7 bodies (except Slobodin).
Two died and were left at the cedar tree. The three who died climbing back toward the tent and Dubinina had articles of clothing from the two left there.
Dubinina and Kolevatov were found with Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle, but not inside the den. Both had substantial injuries. Both were under-clothed and / or wearing articles of clothing from the two already dead.
I tend to think the later ill-clothed party gave up and split up at the cedar tree. Three of them (including Dyatlov) set out to get back to the tent, but never made it.
Dubinina and Kolevatov were too badly injured to go with them. These two were either left in the care of Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle (if the later party had even found them ...), or subsequently found (or were found by ...) the two well-clothed guys.
Some clothing from the cedar tree dead was found in the den (not on any body). This doesn't prove that Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle were at the cedar tree; it only proves that Dubinina and Kolevatov weren't wearing all the available clothes at the time they died.
At this point, I need to introduce a disturbing possibility ... If Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle had taken up shelter (possibly already injured) at the den some 70 - 75 m from the cedar tree, the two sub-groups might never have interacted until after the events at the cedar tree (2 dead; 3 departed for the tent).
One reason for entertaining this notion is that the two best-clothed persons were not the ones who attempted to climb back to the tent site. Another is the odd way the cedar tree scene indicated chaotic behavior and panic, whereas the den scene didn't show any such signs.
One possibility is that Zolotarev and Thibeaux-Brignolle discovered Dubinina and Kolevatov and tried to get them to shelter in the den. At some point one or more (maybe all) those four left the den and fell into the 'ravine' where they were all found. Any remaining ones died trying to help the one(s) who'd fallen into the 'ravine'.
As I indicated above, this is simply the nth scenario I've considered, and the one with which I'm most comfortable.
