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Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

With regard to climate change, we're like Wile E. Coyote. We've already gone over the cliff, but we haven't looked down yet.
 
Are there any CC deniers left? If there are, here's another big slice of Humble Pie for them to digest:
Environmental records shattered as climate change 'plays out before us'
Temperatures, sea levels and carbon dioxide all hit milestones amid extreme weather in 2015, major international ‘state of the climate’ report finds
Oliver Milman in New York
Tuesday 2 August 2016 16.00 BST

The world is careering towards an environment never experienced before by humans, with the temperature of the air and oceans breaking records, sea levels reaching historic highs and carbon dioxide surpassing a key milestone, a major international report has found.


The “state of the climate” report, led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) with input from hundreds of scientists from 62 countries, confirmed there was a “toppling of several symbolic mileposts” in heat, sea level rise and extreme weather in 2015.

“The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle,” Michael Mann, a leading climatologist at Penn State, told the Guardian. “They are playing out before us, in real time. The 2015 numbers drive that home.”

[The page contains facts and figures, mostly in the form of charts and graphs - I'll leave you to pick out the most interesting bits for yourself.]

The state of the climate report is now in its 26th year. The peer-reviewed series is published annually by the American Meteorological Society.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...te-change-records-broken-international-report

This is not a good time to be young. Climate change problems will just exacerbate all the world's other problems like droughts, famine, population growth, and extreme weather. Climate change is now a runaway train, but no-one seems able to get onto the footplate and apply the brakes.
 
Climate change is now a runaway train, but no-one seems able to get onto the footplate and apply the brakes.
How? The evil Illuminati are doing their best with their Chemtrail scheme to change Earth's albedo...
 
A Nuclear-Powered US Military Ice Base Will Resurface as the Arctic Melts
Written by KATE LUNAU MOTHERBOARD EDITOR

For decades now, an abandoned, nuclear-powered US military base has been buried under the ice in Greenland—along with hazardous waste including radioactive material. The military believed that Camp Century would stay entombed forever in ice and snow, but now, because of climate change, Greenland is starting to melt.

A lot of messy stuff threatens to be exposed as the ice disappears, including some 200,000 litres of diesel fuel, 240,000 litres of sewage and waste water, some toxicpolychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)—and an unknown amount of radioactive coolant, left over from the site’s nuclear generator, according to a new study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Camp Century was built in 1959, at the height of the Cold War, beneath the surface of the northwestern Greenland ice sheet. There, the US studied deployment of nuclear missiles against Russia.

“It had up to 200 soldiers, called Iceworms, who lived in the ice,” William Colgan, a climate and glacier scientist at Toronto’s York University who is lead author on the new paper, told me. The base was positioned within the ice, not on top of it, so it wouldn’t simply be buried by the relentless snow, he explained.

After it was decommissioned in 1967, the US abandoned pretty much all of the base's contents along with it, which wasn’t an unusual practice. “It was reasonable to expect it to snow forever,” Colgan explained, adding that Camp Century and other bases were legally established under a treaty between Denmark and the US. “The agreement had an implicit assumption: that it would keep snowing,” he said. ...

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/ca...-change-nuclear-military?utm_source=mbtwitter
 
There are still some climate change deniers out there, despite the evidence for consistently rising global temperatures and extreme weather events:
Professor Brian Cox clashes with Australian climate sceptic

Professor Brian Cox has verbally sparred with a newly elected Australian politician who believes climate change is a global conspiracy.
The British physicist behind BBC's Wonders of the Universe was a guest on the adversarial panel show Q&A.
Also on the Australian TV show was senator-elect Malcolm Roberts from the anti-immigration One Nation party.

The celebrity scientist was dumbfounded by Mr Roberts' claim that climate change data was manipulated by Nasa.
The Australian Broadcasting Corp. panel show puts politicians, commentators and experts from different fields in front of a live studio audience to face questions about the issues of the week.
Mr Roberts has previously claimed that the United Nations is using climate change to lay the foundations for an unelected global government.

A member of the audience asked Prof Cox to address Mr Roberts' request for proof of a human element in climate change.
"I could sit here and read out figures until I'm blue in the face," Prof Cox said.
"The absolute, absolute consensus is that human action is leading to an increase in average temperature. Absolute consensus. I know you may try to argue with that," he said to Mr Roberts, "but you can't."

Mr Roberts worked in coal mining and has an honours degree in engineering and a master's degree in business administration.
Throughout the show, the senator repeatedly called for "empirical data" proving that climate change was real.

At one point, Prof Cox produced a graph showing global surface temperatures of the past century.
However, Mr Roberts said the climate data had been "corrupted".
"What do you mean corrupted?" Prof Cox asked.
Mr Roberts responded: "Manipulated".
"By who?" Prof Cox asked.
"Nasa," Mr Roberts said.

When asked earlier this month if he still believed the UN was trying to impose a worldwide government through climate change policy, Mr Roberts answered: "Definitely".
He also wrote a report in 2013 that detailed his rejection of man-made global warming.

Science Minister Greg Hunt was also on the show and was asked to clarify the government's position on climate change.
"All of these different organisations, I don't think they're subject to a collective folly, nor do I think that they're subject to some sort of conspiratorial collusion," he said.
"I respect the right of people to have different views, but we don't make our policy on that. Our policy is it's real and it's important and it's significant."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-37091391
 
Giant ice sheet that could flood London is more resilient than previously thought
However the current rate of sea level rise is expected to cause serious problems for major coastal cities over the next century – and Pacific islands are already disappearing beneath the waves
Ian Johnston Science Correspondent

The vast West Antarctic ice sheet – which contains enough water to raise sea levels by up to nine metres – does not have appear to have suddenly collapsed over a few decades the last time the planet was warmer than it is today, according to new research.

There is concern that once the temperature hits a certain point, ice sheets will disappear increasingly quickly and then disintegrate. The Greenland ice sheet, for example, lost a trillion tonnes of ice between 2011 and 2014, compared to nine trillion tonnes in the past 100 years.

Researchers at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have been trying to work out what happened to the much bigger West Antarctic ice sheet during a natural warm period some 128,000 years ago.

The interactive map below, developed using Nasa information by Alex Tingle of firetree.net, shows the effect of different degrees of sea level rise. At nine metres, vast areas of Yorkshire are submerged, the Wash expands dramatically and much of central London is underwater, while the Netherlands virtually disappears:

About 128,000 years ago, the world was hot enough to allow hippopotamuses to wallow in the Thames Valley.

Dr Louise Sime, a palaeoclimate modeller at the BAS, told The Independent that ice core samples suggested humans might have more time to come to terms with major sea level rise than some had feared.
“We think possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet doesn’t sort of collapse instantly over a very short period – and that’s been a worry,” she said.
“But it certainly may be susceptible to continuous melt over a longer time period.”

She said their results suggested the ice sheet had not melted within about 50 to 200 years – a ‘sudden’ change in these terms. “It probably took longer than that,” she said.

Dr Sime, co-author of a paper in the journal Nature Communications, said this was “potentially” good news, but added there was also some bad news.
“We have found out that sea ice is susceptible to huge losses and that has massive implications in terms of … life under the sea ice,” she said.
“We found out from this [study], that the sea ice is probably responding more quickly than the land ice.”

The sea ice around Antarctica shrank by about 65 per cent in winter during this natural warm period, they found.
While melting sea ice does not raise sea levels, it does increase the pace of global warming as white ice has a cooling effect, reflecting more sunlight back from the Earth’s surface than dark water.

The current rate of sea level rise is already more than enough to cause significant problems for low-lying Pacific islands, which have started to disappear.

Coastal cities like New York and Shanghai are also expected to see more severe floods over the next century with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting sea levels are “likely” to rise between 26 and 82cm by 2100.

The broader lesson from 128,000 years ago is somewhat concerning. The temperature was higher than today even though the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached just 300 parts per million (ppm), compared to 400ppm today.
“The climate [today] hasn’t had time to respond fully to the CO2 we’ve put into the atmosphere,” Dr Sime said.

“We are now heading for a time that will be almost certainly warmer than the last interglacial. It’s just we haven’t got there yet.
“It’s really interesting to look at the past because the climate had long enough to adjust to higher levels of CO2.”

Dr Sime said she and others in the US were now planning to do more research to try to work out how long it took the Western Antarctic ice sheet to melt.
She stressed that the past was only an indication of what might happen in the future, not what would certainly happen.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...change-british-antarctic-survey-a7195481.html
 
China ratifies Paris climate agreement

China's top legislature has ratified the Paris global climate agreement, state news agency Xinhua reports.
The country is the world's largest emitter of harmful CO2 emissions, which cause climate change.
China and the US are expected to jointly announce ratification at a bilateral summit later on Saturday.

In a landmark deal struck in December, countries agreed to cut emissions enough to keep the global average rise in temperatures below 2C (36F).

Members of China's National People's Congress Standing Committee adopted "the proposal to review and ratify the Paris Agreement" on Saturday morning at the end of a week-long session.

The Paris deal is the world's first comprehensive climate agreement. It will only come into force legally after it is ratified by at least 55 countries, which between them produce 55% of global carbon emissions.
When the US - the world's second-largest emitter - follows China's lead, it will bump the tally up to 40%.
Before China made this announcement, the 23 nations that had ratified the agreement accounted for just over 1% of emissions.

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-37265541

Analysis: BBC environmental analyst Roger Harrabin
This is a big step towards turning the Paris climate agreement into reality.

Other nations will still tussle over their own ratification, but this will put pressure on G20 nations over the weekend to move faster with their pledge to phase out subsidies to fossil fuels.

But even if enough other players step forward to make the Paris deal law, huge challenges lie ahead.
 
England's iconic white cliffs eroding 10 times faster now than over past few thousand years
Telegraph Reporters
8 November 2016 • 1:01am

The iconic chalk cliffs on England's south coast are eroding 10-fold faster now than they have over the past few thousand years, a new study has revealed.

Researchers have observed that the erosion rate of chalk cliffs at Beachy Head and Seaford Head in East Sussex over the past 150 years has been of 22 to 32cm a year. They have calculated that in the past 7,000 years it was just two to six centimetres a year.

The acceleration, timed thanks to a technique that tracks changes in rocks when exposed to energetic space particles, would be the result of thinning of cliff-front beaches, worsened by changes in storm intensity.

The researchers, led by Dr Martin Hurst from the University of Glasgow, predict that climate change will accelerate the erosion process.

Video: 1m 25s

“We were very surprised at the stark difference,” Dr Hurst told the Guardian. “If you have a nice thick and wide beach in front of a cliff, that reflects wave energy. But the beaches have all but disappeared.”

The scientists believe the study, published in the leading American journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, will help make better predictions for the future about how climate change will affect coastlines.
"Our coasts are going to change in the future as a result of sea-level rise and perhaps increased storminess, and we want this work to inform better forecasts of erosion," Dr Hurst told the BBC.

etc...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...e-cliffs-eroding-10-times-faster-now-than-ov/
 
Trump seeking quickest way to quit Paris climate agreement, says report
The president-elect wants to bypass the theoretical four-year procedure to exit the accord, according to a Reuters source
Staff and agencies
Sunday 13 November 2016 09.02 GMT

Donald Trump is looking at quick ways of withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement in defiance of widening international backing for the plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions, Reuters has reported.

Since the US president-elect was chosen, governments ranging from China to small island states have reaffirmed support for the 2015 Paris agreement at 200-nation climate talks running until 18 November in Marrakesh, Morocco.

But, according to Reuters, a source in the Trump transition team said the victorious Republican, who has called global warming a hoax, was considering ways to bypass a theoretical four-year procedure for leaving the accord.
“It was reckless for the Paris agreement to enter into force before the election,” said the source, who works on Trump’s transition team for international energy and climate policy, speaking on condition of anonymity. The Paris agreement went into force on 4 November, four days before last Tuesday’s election.

...

Despite the threat of a US withdrawal, US secretary of state John Kerry said on Sunday that he would continue his efforts to implement the Paris agreement until Barack Obama leaves office on 20 January.

Speaking in New Zealand following a trip to Antarctica, Kerry appeared to take a swipe at Trump when he listed some of the ways in which global warming could already be seen. He said that there were more fires, floods and damaging storms around the world, and sea levels were rising.

“The evidence is mounting in ways that people in public life should not dare to avoid accepting as a mandate for action,” Kerry said.
“Now the world’s scientific community has concluded that climate change is happening beyond any doubt. And the evidence is there for everybody to see,” Kerry said.
[Everybody apart from that numpty Trump, it seems! :twisted: How high up the Trump Tower does the rising sea level have to get, I wonder, before he wonders if he got things wrong? Some people in NY take things seriously - on the Lone CG thread recently I posted:
Work on four large flood barriers for Manhatten, New York is on schedule for completion just before Christmas.
Jez Littlejohns, Sales Director, said “ We will be testing all four barriers in a purpose-built jig in the coming weeks. Working with Flood Control International, a UK based specialist supplier and installer of the most comprehensive range of flood defences systems in the world, A&P are using their specialist skills and fabrication facilities to manufacture the four flood barriers.

http://www.falmouthpacket.co.uk/news/14841180.Fabrication_is_still_at_heart_of_port_operations/
]


The Paris agreement was reached by almost 200 nations in December and, as of Saturday, has been formally ratified by 109 representing 76% of greenhouse gas emissions, including the United States with 18%.

The accord seeks to hold global warming to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels to limit rising temperatures that have been linked to increasing economic damage from desertification, extinctions of animals and plants, heat waves, floods and rising sea levels.

United Nations climate chief Patricia Espinosa declined to comment on the Trump source’s remarks to Reuters.
“The Paris agreement carries an enormous amount of weight and credibility,” she told a news conference. She said the UN hoped for a strong and constructive relationship with Trump.

The Trump source blamed US president Barack Obama for joining up by an executive order, without getting approval from the Senate. “There wouldn’t be this diplomatic fallout on the broader international agenda if Obama hadn’t rushed the adoption,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...y-to-quit-paris-climate-agreement-says-report
 
2016 will be the hottest year on record, UN says
World Meteorological Organisation figures show global temperature is 1.2C above pre-industrial levels and will set a new high for the third year running
Damian Carrington
Monday 14 November 2016 11.02 GMT

2016 will very likely be the hottest year on record and a new high for the third year in a row, according to the UN. It means 16 of the 17 hottest years on record will have been this century.
The scorching temperatures around the world, and the extreme weather they drive, mean the impacts of climate change on people are coming sooner and with more ferocity than expected, according to scientists.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) report, published on Monday at the global climate summit in Morocco, found the global temperature in 2016 is running 1.2C above pre-industrial levels. This is perilously close to to the 1.5C target included as an aim of the Paris climate agreement last December.

The El Niño weather phenomenon helped push temperatures even higher in early 2016 but the global warming caused by the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities remains the strongest factor.
“Another year. Another record,” said WMO secretary-general, Petteri Taalas. “The extra heat from the powerful El Niño event has disappeared. The heat from global warming will continue.”
“Because of climate change, the occurrence and impact of extreme events has risen,” he said. “‘Once in a generation’ heatwaves and flooding are becoming more regular.”

The WMO said human-induced global warming had contributed to at least half the extreme weather events studied in recent years, with the risk of extreme heat increasing by 10 times in some cases.
“It is almost as if mother nature is making a statement,” said climate scientist Michael Mann, at Penn State University in the US. “Just as one of the planet’s two largest emitters of carbon has elected a climate change denier [Donald Trump] - who has threatened to pull out of the Paris accord - to the highest office, she reminds us that she has the final word.”
“Climate change is not like other issues that can be postponed from one year to the next,” he said. “The US and world are already behind; speed is of the essence, because climate change and its impacts are coming sooner and with greater ferocity than anticipated.”

etc...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/14/2016-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-un-says
 
US envoy says climate deal is bigger than any one head of state
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, Marrakech

The Paris climate agreement will survive a Trump presidency says the US special envoy on climate change Dr Jonathan Pershing.
He was speaking before the arrival of ministers and some heads of state in Marrakech on Tuesday.
They are coming to try to take the next steps to tackle global climate change.

But the meeting has been rocked by the possibility that President-elect Donald Trump will withdraw the US from the pact.
US lead negotiator Dr Pershing told a packed news briefing that the passion and dedication displayed in the effort to deliver the Paris treaty was strong enough to withstand the impacts of Trump presidency.
“Heads of state can and will change but I am confident that we can and we will sustain a durable international effort to counter climate change,” he said.

Dr Pershing said that he expected personnel from the Trump transition team to start arriving at the State Department in the coming weeks and they would drive the “shape and thrust” of US diplomacy over the next four years.
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump sketched a plan to “cancel” the Paris Agreement and withhold US payments to the UN body tasked with stemming climate change.
He has also appointed Myron Ebell, from the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a man well known for his contrarian views on climate change, to head his Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team.

Dr Pershing said that he had no information on who might lead on climate change issues in a Trump administration. Whoever it was, he said, should recognise the strength of the last year's climate agreement and what it could help the world to achieve.
“The Paris agreement protects economic growth and the environment, all while providing nationally determined flexibility to accommodate differing circumstances,” he said.
“It is durable, it is inclusive it is ambitious.”

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37982080
 
Yeah. TPTB are now making so much money with carbon trading and carbon taxes, that they won't allow anybody to change things.
 
Very scary stuff from Phil Plait well worth reading the whole thing.

TL'DR Arctic ice didn't just reach it's second lowest level ever this summer, it's now failing to come back at it's usual rate, so we're now at a record low for this time of year.

Starting in September every year the ice begins to reform, growing to a maximum. It reached that point on Sept. 10 this year, when it had the second lowest extent on record. After that day, though, it started to grow again.

Except … it didn’t. It started to, but then in early October the growth just stopped. A couple of weeks later it started to rise again, but stalled a second time in late October. In the weeks since then the amount of ice has actually fallen a bit. We are now at record low ice for this time of year, and have been for weeks.

Mind you, it’s winter up there. The Sun shines at most a few hours a day at the southern edge of the Arctic Circle right now. Yet temperatures in the Arctic are soaring; in mid-November it was an average of a staggering 22° Celsius, or 40° Fahrenheit, above normal.

Holy cripes. What the hell is going on?

The obvious answer is: global warming. Like I said, as time goes on, average temperatures go up, and amount of ice decreases.

But there’s a less obvious but more important answer, too. And that is: global warming.
 
Point of No Return...or 'there's always next year'...
 
Point of No Return it is, then!

Cx0sdUqWQAA4jKf.jpg
 
This scares me... think 50 foot high wall of ice coming at you at around 40mph. :eek:

In western Tibet over the summer, however, two glaciers suddenly collapsed. Both caused avalanches, tremendous landslides of ice. While avalanches from glaciers have been known to occur, these were both very odd. For one thing, they occurred in western Tibet, which is a bit of an oddball place on Earth: Unlike most areas, glaciers there have been growing, not retreating.

For another, glacial collapse in western Tibet is unprecedented. As in, this is the first time it’s ever been seen.

That’s a phrase we hear a lot when it comes to global warming and climate change.

Bad Astronomy
 
Some sources are putting this down to global warming though NASA just reports the facts here:

On Nov. 10, 2016, scientists on NASA's IceBridge mission photographed an oblique view of a massive rift in the Antarctic Peninsula's Larsen C ice shelf. Icebridge, an airborne survey of polar ice, completed an eighth consecutive Antarctic deployment on Nov. 18.

Ice shelves are the floating parts of ice streams and glaciers, and they buttress the grounded ice behind them; when ice shelves collapse, the ice behind accelerates toward the ocean, where it then adds to sea level rise. Larsen C neighbors a smaller ice shelf that disintegrated in 2002 after developing a rift similar to the one now growing in Larsen C.

The IceBridge scientists measured the Larsen C fracture to be about 70 miles long, more than 300 feet wide and about a third of a mile deep. The crack completely cuts through the ice shelf but it does not go all the way across it – once it does, it will produce an iceberg roughly the size of the state of Delaware.

NASA
 
Ice-melting temperatures forecast for Arctic midwinter
Temperatures in parts of the Arctic are expected to rise above 0C for the second winter in a row.
Michael Slezak
Wednesday 21 December 2016 15.00 GMT

Scientists are forecasting ice-melting temperatures in the middle of winter for some parts of the Arctic for the second year in a row. And analysis shows such recent record temperatures there would have been virtually impossible without human greenhouse emissions.
Over the coming days, some parts of the Arctic are expected to get gusts of warm air that are more than 20C hotter than usual for this time of year, some of which will tip over the 0C melting temperature of water.

Maximum temperatures in parts of the Arctic will be warmer than the maximum over most of Canada for the next five days, according the global forecasting system run by the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa).

The extreme temperatures predicted coincide with record low sea-ice levels in the Arctic, which have already been wreaking havoc with weather in North America, Europe and Asia, according to leading climate scientists.

etc...

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ng-temperatures-forecast-for-arctic-midwinter
 
Arctic heatwave could break records
By Victoria Gill Science reporter, BBC News

Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.
Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

Temperatures throughout November and December were 5C higher than average.
It follows a summer during which Arctic sea ice reached the second-lowest extent ever recorded by satellites.

Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford's Environmental Change Institute told BBC News that in pre-industrial times "a heatwave like this would have been extremely rare - we would expect it to occur about every 1,000 years".
Dr Otto added that scientists are "very confident" that the weather patterns were linked to anthropogenic climate change.

"We have used several different climate modelling approaches and observations," she told BBC News.
"And in all our methods, we find the same thing; we cannot model a heatwave like this without the anthropogenic signal."

Temperatures are forecast to peak on Christmas Eve around the North Pole - at near-freezing.
The warm air from the North Atlantic is forecast to flow all the way to the North Pole via Spitsbergen, giving rise to clouds that prevent heat from escaping.

And, as Dr Otto explained to BBC News, the reduction in sea ice is contributing to this "feedback loop".
"If the globe is warming, then the sea ice and ice on land [shrinks] then the darker water and land is exposed," she said.
"Then the sunlight is absorbed rather than reflected as it would be by the ice."

Forecasting models show that there is about a 2% chance of a heatwave event occurring every year.
"But if temperatures continue to increase further as they are now," said Dr Otto, "we would expect a heatwave like this to occur every year and that will be a huge stress on the ecosystem."

etc...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

Bad news for polar bears... :(
 
Birds migrating earlier as temperatures rise

Migrating birds are arriving at their breeding grounds earlier as global temperatures rise, a study has found.
Birds have reached their summer breeding grounds on average about one day earlier per degree of increasing global temperatures, according to the research by Edinburgh University.

The study looked at hundreds of species across five continents.
It is hoped it will help scientists predict how different species may respond to future environmental change.
Reaching their summer breeding grounds at the wrong time - even by a few days - may cause birds to miss out on maximum availability of vital resources such as food and nesting places.
Late arrival to breeding grounds may, in turn, affect the timing of offspring hatching and their chances of survival.

Long-distance migrants, which are shown to be less responsive to rising temperatures, may suffer most as other birds gain advantage by arriving at breeding grounds ahead of them.

Takuji Usui, of Edinburgh University's school of biological sciences, said: "Many plant and animal species are altering the timing of activities associated with the start of spring, such as flowering and breeding.
"Now we have detailed insights into how the timing of migration is changing and how this change varies across species.
"These insights may help us predict how well migratory birds keep up with changing conditions on their breeding grounds."

The study examined how various species, which take flight in response to cues such as changing seasonal temperatures and food availability, have altered their behaviour over time and with increasing temperatures.

The researchers examined records of migrating bird species dating back almost 300 years.

The study drew upon records from amateur enthusiasts and scientists, including notes from 19th-century American naturalist Henry David Thoreau.

Species that migrate huge distances - such as the swallow and pied flycatcher - and those with shorter migrations - such as the lapwing and pied wagtail - were included in the research.

The study, published in Journal of Animal Ecology, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-38450228
 
Interestingly, Piers Corbyn, Jeremy's more informed brother, thinks otherwise.
 
I agree that global climate change is happening. But then, it's always happened.
It's impossible to tell how much of the climate change is due to the actions of humans and the action of CO2 on the climate is probably negligible, given the fact that it's at less than 1% of the Earth's atmosphere.
Also, the data that is being used for modelling is so small as to be statistically insignificant.
Also, this idea that science is proven by 'consensus' is a dodgy one. In science-world, normally things are facts or they're not. Also, this idea that we can suddenly stop it happening is on rocky ground. We should accept that it's happening and do everything we can to adapt.

Piers Corbyn is a meteorologist, so I think he knows a bit more about it than Jeremy. He also doesn't look at issues through a politicised lens in the same way as Jeremy.
Socialists all over the world have seized upon global climate change as a handy-dandy way of sucking money from rich nations and handing it over to poor ones. It's a conspiracy that we are now exposing.
 
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