Global Warming & Climate Change: The Phenomenon

[QuaziWashboard]

And with the earth heating up, it then starts this nasty little chain reaction.

The potential bad news is that the methane in methane ice is a very powerful greenhouse gas. Remember what we said about the methane fizzing from the ice like soda pop? Scientists theorize that increasing sea temperatures will make all this gas soda popping a lot more common. Come to think of it, it's kind of like a vicious cycle, isn't it? Waters warm, methane escapes, water eventually gets more warm, more gas eventually escapes.

Worse yet, scientists also speculate that a massive release of methane from hydrates, and the resulting global warming, caused one of the hottest periods in Earth's history, known as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. They also think it may be a possible reason (or one of the reasons) for what's known as the Permian-Triassic extinction, also known as the "Great Dying." That can't be good.

Source;
http://science.qj.net/rss.xml?cid=2370& ... 0Resources
It's a big page but the bit I quoted is near the bottom.

 

[Scunnerlugzz]

The thing is, it is undeniable that Co2 among other gasses is what we call a green house gas, that is a FACT, now if the sun is heating up, a position I agree with based upon astronomical observations, our vast increase in the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere at just the wrong time isn't gonna help is it. My biggest worry is that a solar cycle coupled with a man made atmospheric changes could heat the shallow coastal seas by the few degrees necessary to melt the Methane gas hydrates which would cause the runaway global warming that supposedly brought about the Permian extinctions.

CO2 is only one of the greenhouse gasses, and when compared to water vapour its an insignificant one.
What dictates how much water vapour we have in the atmosphere?
The Sun.

Pumping lots of CO2 into the atmosphere may not be great idea, but its not going to cause the end of the world, mother nature is perfectly capable of doing that that without our help and there's not a thing that we can do about it.
So lets not get hysterical about man made CO2.

 

[crunchy5]

The thing is, it is undeniable that Co2 among other gasses is what we call a green house gas, that is a FACT, now if the sun is heating up, a position I agree with based upon astronomical observations, our vast increase in the amount of Co2 in the atmosphere at just the wrong time isn't gonna help is it. My biggest worry is that a solar cycle coupled with a man made atmospheric changes could heat the shallow coastal seas by the few degrees necessary to melt the Methane gas hydrates which would cause the runaway global warming that supposedly brought about the Permian extinctions.

CO2 is only one of the greenhouse gasses, and when compared to water vapour its an insignificant one.
What dictates how much water vapour we have in the atmosphere?
The Sun.

Pumping lots of CO2 into the atmosphere may not be great idea, but its not going to cause the end of the world, mother nature is perfectly capable of doing that that without our help and there's not a thing that we can do about it.
So lets not get hysterical about man made CO2.

So there will be no temperature rise at all caused by Co2 and therefore no extra water vapour caused by said temperature rise and maybe this wont be augmented by an increase in solar activity. A comforting thought for the oil company propagandists and the fools or the greedy who believe them.

 

[rynner2]

As the weather gets hotter so the sheep are getting smaller
Lewis Smith, Environment Reporter

While every physics pupil knows that heat can usually be relied on to make objects expand, for the semi-wild sheep of the Outer Hebrides it appears to have the opposite effect.

Observations of Soay sheep on Hirta island have shown that the warmer temperatures associated with global warming allow more smaller animals to survive the winter. And with greater numbers of smaller sheep living through the cold months, the average size of the animals falls.

Research led by Imperial College London, published in the journal Science, is the first to establish a direct link between the genetic changes of an animal population and climate change. It indicates that mankind, on top of the ecological legacy of causing species to become extinct or vastly reduced in number, is leaving an evolutionary legacy by affecting natural selection.

On Hirta, the researchers used a combination of population data and field observations to track the size of individual sheep and how their survival rates influenced their numbers.

They found that in years when there were harsh winters, more of the largest sheep survived, whereas in milder years more of the smaller sheep thrived and brought the average size down.

Tim Coulson, from Imperial College London, said that the alterations in the genetic traits could be linked to climate change. “Data shows that in the 1980s big sheep were genetically favoured in this population, as big sheep had more chance of surviving the Outer Hebrides’ harsh winters,” he said.

“But as the climate changes and the Soay sheep are not subject to such tough winters, there will be reduced natural selection for larger animals. Winters have been getting better on this island. This could mean that if the climate in this region of Scotland continues to change, there will be changes in the size of sheep due to natural selection, which could have a significant impact on the population dynamics of the Soay sheep overall.”

He added: “We already know that human activity affects the ecology. We’ve seen lots of species numbers going very, very low, so we are leaving an ecological legacy.

“What this study means is that we are going to be leaving an evolutionary legacy. We are changing the way animals are being selected. Climate change is leaving an evolutionary signature.”

The research is likely to have implications for animals which live in a similar environment to the Soay sheep, where the harshness of winters has a direct bearing on the size of individuals and the overall population.

There was no evidence that climate change led to an increase in the average number of sheep, but it did even out the peaks and troughs in population numbers caused by harsher weather.

The Soay sheep are closely related to the wild sheep originally domesticated by man. They run wild on the island, which was abandoned by its human inhabitants in the 1930s after 2,000 to 3,000 years of occupation.

Wild and woolly

— Latin name Ovis aries

— Unlike other sheep, they do not group in flocks

— Shearing is unnecessary because the fleece is shed naturally

— Thought to be similar to Neolithic sheep.

— The most primitive domestic breed

— Population on Hirta descended from 107 sheep brought from Soay island by the Marquess of Bute in the 1930s, when the last permanent human occupants were evacuated

— Soay is said to derive from the old Scandinavian name Saudaey, meaning “Island of sheep”

— Biologists began researching them on Hirta in 1955

— In 1971 the Queen became the only British monarch to visit Hirta

— Hirta is part of the St Kilda archipelago

— In bad years up to 60 per cent of the sheep die during the winter

Source: Times Database

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 522223.ece

A reader adds this comment:

Could the researchers really have it backward? Maybe the smaller sheep have an advantage because the summers are now warmer. Maybe they overheat and tire less quickly so they are able to compete for food and mates more effectively.

David Devant, Pasadena, CA, USA

 

[rynner2]

World's most important crops hit by global warming effects
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Published: 19 March 2007

Global warming over the past quarter century has led to a fall in the yield of some of the most important food crops in the world, according to one of the first scientific studies of how climate change has affected cereal crops.

Rising temperatures between 1981 and 2002 caused aloss in production of wheat, corn and barley that amounted in effect to some 40 million tons a year - equivalent to annual losses of some £2.6bn.

Although these numbers are not large compared to the world-wide production of cereal crops, scientists warned that the findings demonstrated how climate change was already having an impact on the global production of staple foods. "Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future, but this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on global food supply," said Christopher Field of the Carnegie Institution in Stanford, California.

The study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed yields of cereals from around the world during a period when average temperatures rose by about 0.7C between 1980 and 2002 - although the rise was even higher in certain crop-growing regions of the world.

There was a clear trend, showing the cereal crops were suffering from lower yields during a time when agricultural technology, including the use of chemical fertilisers and pesticides, became more intensive. The study's co-author, David Lobell of America's Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said that the observed fall in cereal yields could be clearly linked with increased temperatures during the period covered by the study.

"Though the impacts are relatively small compared to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate that negative impacts of climate trends on crop yields at the global scale are already occurring," Dr Lobell said.

The two scientists analysed six of the most widely grown crops in the world - wheat, rice, maize, soybeans, barley and sorghum. Production of these crops accounts for more than 40 per cent of the land in the world used for crops, 55 per cent of the non-meat calories in food and more than 70 per cent of animal feed.

They also analysed rainfall and average temperatures for the major growing regions and compared them against the crop yield figures of the Food and Agriculture Organisation for the period 1961 to 2002.

"To do this, we assumed that farmers have not yet adapted to climate change, for example by selecting new crop varieties to deal with climate change," Dr Lobell said.

"If they have been adapting, something that is very difficult to measure, then the effects of warming may have been lower," he said.

The study revealed a simple relationship between temperature and crop yields, with a fall of between 3 and 5 per cent for every 0.5C increase in average temperatures, the scientists said.

http://news.independent.co.uk/environme ... 371569.ece

 

[rynner2]

Birds winter further north as the US warms
By Andrew Buncombe in Washington
Published: 20 March 2007

Increasing numbers of birds are spending their winters further north in what experts say is a clear response to global warming. In one example, the sandhill crane, which normally spends its winters in the south of the US, has been spotted in Nova Scotia.

Experts say an examination of 30 years of data gathered by birders supports other evidence of climate change. Greg Butcher, of the National Audubon Society, said: "The American crow, the Carolina wren, the American robin, the eastern bluebird. They are all spending the winter farther north than they were 30 years ago."

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/ame ... 374355.ece

 

[Scunnerlugzz]

As no doubt they were wintering farther south during the colder spells of the last century.

All the bird species mentioned here will cope with global warming perfectly well, as indeed will the Polar bear, Harp seal et al as long we leave them to ge on with it.

We know this because the Earth has been warmer in the past and these species are still around today.

I fear that gobal warming will certainly increase a long as we continue to churn out hot air of this type.

 

[Pete Younger]

As no doubt they were wintering farther south during the colder spells of the last century.

All the bird species mentioned here will cope with global warming perfectly well, as indeed will the Polar bear, Harp seal et al as long we leave them to ge on with it.

We know this because the Earth has been warmer in the past and these species are still around today.

I fear that gobal warming will certainly increase a long as we continue to churn out hot air of this type.

A voice of reason!

 

[Pietro_Mercurios]

As no doubt they were wintering farther south during the colder spells of the last century.

All the bird species mentioned here will cope with global warming perfectly well, as indeed will the Polar bear, Harp seal et al as long we leave them to ge on with it.

We know this because the Earth has been warmer in the past and these species are still around today.

I fear that gobal warming will certainly increase a long as we continue to churn out hot air of this type.

A voice of reason!

Tell me, can you say, 'Holocene Extinction'?

 

[rynner2]

Birds can travel pretty fast, but plants can't. Some plant species may be too stressed by climate change and die off.

But birds rely on a particular habitat for the different times of the year, be it wetland, grassland, whatever. It might not do them any good flying further north or south if they can't find the right habitats there, with the foodstuff that they need.

This sort of environmental stress is what drives evolution - a few will adapt and survive, but many will die.

 

[Scunnerlugzz]

Can you say Medieval Climate Optimum (Medieval Warm Period will suffice)?

The flora and fauna that are here today clearly survived that period.

Incidently, this is the period which coincided with the peak in solar activity known as the Medieval Maximum. What a coincidence that the present warm period also coincides with a period of great solar activity.

 

[wembley8]

All the bird species mentioned here will cope with global warming perfectly well, as indeed will the Polar bear, Harp seal et al as long we leave them to get on with it.

We know this because the Earth has been warmer in the past and these species are still around today.

You are making a lot of assumptions here. I suspect the populations and general conditions are very different from last time it was this warm. Animals go extinct all the time (a species a week is it?) for lots of reasons, and a change in their environment may very well be the last straw. There are only about 25,000 polar bears left and declining - how many do there need to be before we stop 'leaving them to get on with' dying out?

 

[Scunnerlugzz]

All the bird species mentioned here will cope with global warming perfectly well, as indeed will the Polar bear, Harp seal et al as long we leave them to get on with it.

We know this because the Earth has been warmer in the past and these species are still around today.

You are making a lot of assumptions here. I suspect the populations and general conditions are very different from last time it was this warm. Animals go extinct all the time (a species a week is it?)for lots of reasons, and a change in their environment may very well be be the last straw. There are only about 25,000 polar bears left and declining - how many do there need to be before we stop 'leaving them to get on with' dying out?

I am making a lot of assumptions?

You SUSPECT populations and GENERAL conditions were very different.
Animals go extint FOR LOTS OF REASONS.
A change in their environment MAY VERY WELL BE the last straw.

Well the FACT is that every species on Earth today has survived a warmer climate.

 

[Pietro_Mercurios]

...

Well the FACT is that every species on Earth today has survived a warmer climate.

Which wouldn't include the species which have become extinct, of course.

So, when was this 'warmer climate'?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MWP_and_LIA_in_IPCC_reports

Description of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in IPCC reports

...

2001 report (TAR)

The 2001 report used northern hemisphere warm-season and annual reconstructions from 1000 AD to present by Mann et al (1999), Jones et al (1999) and Briffa (2000) [1].

The IPCC TAR says of the MWP that the posited Medieval Warm Period appears to have been less distinct, more moderate in amplitude, and somewhat different in timing at the hemispheric scale than is typically inferred for the conventionally-defined European epoch. The Northern Hemisphere mean temperature estimates of Jones et al. (1998), Mann et al. (1999), and Crowley and Lowery (2000) show temperatures from the 11th to 14th centuries to be about 0.2°C warmer than those from the 15th to 19th centuries, but rather below mid-20th century temperatures [2].

The TAR discusses Was there a "Little Ice Age" and a "Medieval Warm Period"? and says Thus current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this timeframe, and the conventional terms of "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries.[2]

...

 

[eburacum]

There have been numerous warm and cool periods since the end of the last Ice age; the Younger Dryas cold spell being perhaps the most famous. When the Romans were here in Britain the climate may have been temporarily warmer and drier, based (if I recall correctly) on the fact the the Somerset Levels were drier than normal at that time.

I think it is undeniable that the climate has been variiable in the past, and that many species of plants and animals were able to adapt to these changes in times gone by. In fact the species which survive today are all species which have at one point been subjected to reasonably rapid climate change , and survived or even thrived.

But-
it is not possible to state that those species will therefore be able to thrive, or even survive, in any climate change brought on by global warming. For a start, the current level of CO2 is unprecedented in the Holocene, so we are in uncharted waters as far as climate change and atmospheric mechanisms go.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the landscape has changed from a natural patchwork of biomes which could respond to climate change and allow relatively free movement and migration of species from one region to another. Today the landscape is covered in a web of inhospitable human-made roads and railways, towns, dams, seawalls, monoculture fields and forest plantations. A species which is forced to move its range because of climate change will be faced with a myriad obstacles.

This too is unprecedented. Only a few species might be able to overcome all these obstacles if and when there is next a period of considerable climate change.

 

[ramonmercado]

New Round in Snowball Fight
By Krista Zala
ScienceNOW Daily News
28 March 2007

The debate over whether Earth ever became a giant ice ball has heated up again. A new study looking at isotopes and minerals in sedimentary rocks has found evidence of warming and cooling cycles during a period of time some claim Earth should have been encased in massive glaciers. The finding, say the researchers, deals a blow to the so-called "Snowball Earth" theory.

According to the Snowball Earth theory, advancing glaciers covered so much of the planet's surface 600 million to 700 million years ago that they pushed Earth's climate past a tipping point, causing thick layers of ice to form over the land and oceans. The planet was so frozen that it took 5 million to 10 million years for CO2 from volcanoes to build up enough heat to thaw the ice. Proponents of the theory point to evidence such as variations in carbon isotopes, which suggest a massive marine die-off during the supposed Snowball Earth period. But critics cite significant photosynthesis near the equator at that time--proof, they say, that oceans near the tropics had little or no ice.

To plow further, Philip Allen, a geologist at Imperial College London, and colleagues looked at changes in the composition of mudstone in outcrops in Oman dating back 650 million years. They analyzed how these rocks, which formed beneath Earth's surface, changed chemically when they reached fresh air. In reacting to oxygen, water, CO2, or other compounds in the environment, such rocks serve as a record of the contemporary climate. The team also examined patterns in the sediments deposited by glaciers.

The evidence indicated that glaciers were advancing and retreating in cycles of warming and cooling--something the researchers argue should not have happened on a fully frozen Earth. Earth may have come "dangerously close" to the tipping point during this massive glaciation, says Allen, but it never fully froze. The team reports its findings in the April issue of Geology.

"There's no doubt whatsoever that very significant glaciation episodes occurred during this period," agrees physicist and climate modeler Dick Peltier of the University of Toronto in Canada, who notes that Earth was probably more of a "slushball" at this time than a snowball. But Harvard geochemist Daniel Schrag isn't convinced. Snow and sublimation of ice would keep a hydrologic cycle going on land during a Snowball Earth, he argues, allowing glaciers to flow and generating enough water to affect rocks in a way similar to retreating ice. In addition, he says, CO2 levels were likely rising during most of the glaciation, and the acidic water that resulted may have weathered rocks in ways similar to warm, humid conditions.

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/co ... 2007/328/4

 

[rynner2]

Arctic sea ice is shrinking in 'downward spiral'
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Published: 05 April 2007

Winter sea ice in the Arctic has failed to reform fully for the third year in a row. Scientists said yesterday that the area of ocean covered by Arctic ice at the end of the winter months was lower only in March 2006.

Researchers fear that the floating sea ice is now on a downward spiral of shrinkage that cannot recover fully even during winter because of warmer temperatures.

Walt Meier of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado, which released the satellite data yesterday, said: "We're seeing near-record lows and higher-than-normal temperatures. We expect the downward trend to continue in future years."

The maximum area of the northern hemisphere covered by sea ice in March 2007 was 5.7 million square miles, compared to the 5.6 million square miles recorded in March 2006.

The long-term average for March sea ice, as determined by Nasa measurements from 1979 to 2000, is 6.1 million square miles, according to the centre.

Sea ice in the Arctic oscillates naturally during the seasons, with the area of ocean covered by ice shrinking to its peak minimum extent during September and expanding to its annual maximum during March.

Since 1979, when satellite measurements began, summer sea ice had declined significantly. In September 2005 it reached an all-time record low, with September 2006 the second-lowest.

Scientists fear that the winter failure of the ice to recover fully will mean there is less ice to start with at the beginning of the summer melting period, leading to more rapid shrinkage with each subsequent year.

This is bad news for polar bears, which rely on floating sea ice to hunt for seals. With little ice, polar bears have to swim further in open water, burning much-needed body fat in the process.

One of the greatest concerns is that the melting sea ice will lead to greater areas of open, darker ocean being exposed to sunlight during the summer. Instead of 90 per cent of the heat of the sun being reflected by a cap of sea ice, the heat will be absorbed by the open water, which will exacerbate the trend towards regional warming.

"Low winter recovery means that the ice is freezing up later in the fall [autumn] and growing at a slower pace in the winter," said a spokesman for the centre.

"September usually marks the end of the summer melting season. Low summer extent means that ice is melting faster during the summer and leaving less ice to build on during the winter recovery," he said.

Computer models predict that the summer sea ice will be totally gone by the end of the century. Some scientists, however, believe that this could occur as early as 2040.

If the sea ice of the Arctic disappears completely in summer, regional temperatures could increase faster than in the past. Some scientists also believe that the change in the regional climate could have far-reaching impacts on other parts of the northern hemisphere, perhaps by altering ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream.

http://news.independent.co.uk/environme ... 422640.ece

 

[rynner2]

Del Boy basks in palms of Peckham
Will Iredale

Forget the ranks of municipal marigolds, the beds of blooming fuchsias and the busy lizzies. This summer you are more likely to see palm trees in Peckham, mimosas in Marylebone and cordylines in Coventry.

Local authorities have begun replacing traditional — but water-hungry — bedding plants with species better able to cope with a warming climate. Parks, roundabout displays and flowerbeds are taking on an exotic appearance as councils prepare for temperatures that are forecast to rise by up to 4C by the end of the century.

Once outdoor palms were a rare sight in Britain, dotted around resorts such as Torquay, in Devon, and on the west coast of Scotland, which is warmed by the Gulf Stream. But now experts estimate that the number of palm trees planted by councils has increased 50-fold to more than 10,000 since 1990.

Peckham, the south London suburb, was once known as the home turf of Del Boy in the television sit-com Only Fools and Horses. In 2000 it also became synonymous with inner-city knife crime when 10-year-old Damilola Taylor was stabbed to death in the stairwell of a dingy Peckham tower block.

Now, however, it hopes that the hot weather plants can contribute to the revival of its image. In recent weeks 23 palm trees and 33 yuccas have been planted along the central reservation of Queen’s Road, the main thoroughfare, at a cost of £30,000.

Julia Edwards, the designer, said that in addition to the water-saving advantages of the plants they “reflect the multicultural diversity of Peckham which people enjoy looking at. Before, it was just nondescript with municipal plants and shrubs”.

In Coventry, three species of palm along with yuccas have been planted around the city’s public spaces. “People have told me it is like being on holiday here and gives Coventry a year-round happy, fun feel,” said Carl Wright, a senior parks manager in the city.

Coventry may look a little more like Cannes this summer, but the exotic makeover is not coming at the expense of native plants. “Busy lizzies came from Tanzania and Mozambique and marigolds came from Mexico and Guatemala,” said Guy Barter, head of advisory services at the Royal Horticultural Society.

“In the coming years it may be just as common to see cabbage palms and olive trees in Britain.”

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/u ... 626849.ece

Palm trees are already common in Cornwall - there's one outside my window as I write!
And Draceana Avenue in Falmouth is named for the palms planted along it.

 

[rynner2]

FLUTTERBYS

Butterflies make early appearance
By Lesley Richardson
Published: 04 May 2007

The hottest April on record has meant butterflies are hatching up to two months early.

The charity Butterfly Conservation said butterflies had been emerging an average of half a day earlier each year from the mid-Seventies until last year. But Richard Fox, surveys manager for the charity, said: "This year has blown all that away. We have had lots of species coming out two weeks earlier than last year, some a month or two months early. It's really a very dramatic situation."

The Lulworth Skipper was spotted in its native Dorset on 26 April this year, compared with first sightings of mid-June in previous years.

The Meadow Brown, right, Britain's most abundant native butterfly, was also reported on 30 April as far north as County Antrim.

"It's just astonishing. It's a dramatic jump and that's because we have had a very mild winter and an exceptionally hot April and the butterflies are responding to that," said Mr Fox. "The warmer the weather, the faster caterpillars can grow and develop and turn into butterflies."

Migrant butterflies, which would usually breed over the winter in hotter Mediterranean countries, have also started to survive the winter in the UK. "The most dramatic example is the Red Admiral," said Mr Fox. "20 or 30 years ago it would have appeared as a visitor in the summer but now they are surviving in huge numbers.

The National Trust has reported early signs of summer on the 8,800 hectares of coast and countryside it manages. Holly Blue butterflies have been spotted on the Purbeck Estate, in Dorset, and Grizzled Skipper butterflies have been seen at Fontmell Down, on the Dorset-Wiltshire border, with bumblebees spotted as early as February.

Last month was the hottest April since records began in 1659. The month's final figure of 11.2C (52.16F), as measured by the central England temperature (CET) which takes into account daytime and night-time readings, far surpassed the previous high of 10.6C (51.08F) in 1865.

http://news.independent.co.uk/environme ... 511435.ece

 

[Pietro_Mercurios]

Every day, it's a' gettin' closer...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6665147.stm

Polar ocean 'soaking up less CO2'
By Paul Rincon. Science reporter, BBC News. 17 May 2007

One of Earth's most important absorbers of carbon dioxide (CO2) is failing to soak up as much of the greenhouse gas as it was expected to, scientists say.

The decline of Antarctica's Southern Ocean carbon "sink" - or reservoir - means that atmospheric CO2 levels may be higher in future than predicted.

These carbon sinks are vital as they mop up excess CO2 from the atmosphere, slowing down global warming.

The study, by an international team, is published in the journal Science.

This effect had been predicted by climate scientists, and is taken into account - to some extent - by climate models. But it appears to be happening 40 years ahead of schedule.

The data will help refine models of the Earth's climate, including those upon which the predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based.

Of all the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere, only half of it stays there; the rest goes into carbon sinks.

There are two major natural carbon sinks: the oceans and the land "biosphere". They are equivalent in size, each absorbing a quarter of all CO2 emissions.

The Southern Ocean is thought to account for about 15% of all carbon sinks.

Sink efficiency

It was assumed that, as human activities released more CO2 into the atmosphere, ocean sinks would keep pace, absorbing a comparable percentage of this greenhouse gas.

The breakdown in efficiency of these sinks was an expected outcome, but not until the second half of the 21st Century.

...

 

[WhistlingJack]

Warm Spring 'Affecting Wildlife'

Warm spring 'affecting wildlife'

A warm spring has brought about the early arrival of some UK wildlife, the first results of the Springwatch 2007 survey suggest.

Over the past few months, amateur naturalists have logged more than 24,000 first sightings of six key species of plants and animals.

Some, such as the peacock butterfly and frogspawn, have been spotted earlier than expected.

The Woodland Trust said it was worried "because the changes are so rapid".

Springwatch, now in its third year, is run by the Woodland Trust and the BBC.

The survey data is being compiled to build up a picture of the season as it unfolds across the UK so that it can be compared to previous years.

As the survey has been running for a limited time, the results cannot be interpreted as definitive guide to how a changing climate is affecting wildlife, but researchers are already examining the data for trends.

Recent weather in the UK has been extremely mild, and records show it has been the warmest spring since the Springwatch survey began in 2005.

Nick Collinson, head of conservation policy at the Woodland Trust, believes the warm conditions may be responsible for some earlier-than-expected sightings.

He said: "This has been our earliest Springwatch year, well ahead of the normal time we would have expected to see these events 30 years ago."

Members of the public were asked to record the dates they have first seen red-tailed bumblebees, frogspawn, flowering hawthorns, seven-spot ladybirds, peacock butterflies and swifts.

Some of the preliminary findings of this year's survey include:

* Frogspawn spotted on average two weeks earlier than in 2006 and three weeks earlier than the "phenological norm" (an average first-sighting date based on data gathered over the last 30 years).

* Peacock butterflies sighted on average one month earlier than 2006, two weeks earlier than 2005, and one month earlier than the norm.

* For swifts, the data is still returning, but initial results suggest the date has stayed much the same as 2006, 2007 and the phenological norm.

Mr Collinson was worried about the possible impact of increasingly warm springs.

He said: "We are concerned because the change seems to be so rapid.

"And we know there is a mismatch of timing, so, for example, when insects would pollinate flowers, the flowers are coming out earlier than the insects are available, and we know this is happening.

"It is very difficult to tell what that means, but certainly we know that wildlife is under pressure."

Story from BBC NEWS:

Published: 2007/05/25 05:08:59 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[OneWingedBird]

i was thinking similar when my cherry tree blossomed in early April... worried there weren't enough bees around to pollinate it, and sure enough, it doesn't actually seem to have much of a crop of cherrys on now

 

[TVgeek]

Now you're expecting snow?!?

http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007230784,00.html

I thought Minnesota had the market cornered on weird weather...

TVgeek

 

[WhistlingJack]

Great Apes 'Facing Climate Peril'

Great apes 'facing climate peril'

Great apes are facing an "inevitable crisis" arising from climate change, a leading conservationist has warned.

Dr Richard Leakey said that growing pressure to switch from fossil fuels to biofuels could result in further destruction of the animals' habitats.

The chair of WildlifeDirect called for immediate action and proposed financial incentives to save forests from destruction as one possible solution.

He said: "Climate change will undoubtedly impact everything we know."

The great apes - gorillas, chimps, bonobos and orangutans - are already under threat from habitat destruction, poaching, logging and disease.

The Great Apes Survival Project (Grasp), a United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) initiative, has warned that great apes are at risk of imminent extinction unless drastic action is taken.

In advance of a talk at the UK's Royal Geographical Society, Dr Leakey told journalists that climate threats now had to be added to the mix.

The former director of the Kenyan Wildlife Service said: "I am concerned about the pressures on the land as a result of changes to the climate, but also the pressures on the land in terms of people's reaction to climate change and the shift away from fossil fuels to biofuels."

He said that "great swathes" of forest had already been destroyed in South Asia to make way for palm oil plantations, and this had had a dramatic impact on orangutans, which currently number 50,000.

Palm oil is used in vegetable oil, soaps, shampoos, industrial substances, but it has also been proposed as an alternative to fossil fuel.

Dr Leakey said the growing pressure to turn to biofuels such as palm oil could place the great apes' habitat in further peril.

He added: "People shrug their shoulders and say what are poor countries to do if they cannot exploit their natural resources, and I can understand this, but it is not sustainable the way it is going."

There is also evidence that deforestation would further drive climate change itself by raising the amount of greenhouse gas carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, Dr Leakey said.

Dr Leakey suggested "biodiversity credits" could be a possible solution.

"Being paid for not cutting down indigenous forests and getting credit for that is a further step that builds on the idea of getting paid for planting new forests," he explained.

"It does seem that we cannot stop development, but it does also seem that perhaps we can stop development where critical species are threatened, and perhaps there could be a price added to that."

He said that there could be creative ways to solve the problems that climate change could bring, but added that it was crucial that action was taken now.

Dr Leakey told journalists: "Could the great apes go because of climate change? Yes. Possibly not within our lifetime, but what about in 100 or 200 years?

"Climate change is measurable and is happening at rate that is almost unprecedented from what we know in previous history, and the implications for biodiversity are there for all to see."

Richard Leakey is a palaeo-anthropologist, responsible for extensive fossil finds related to human evolution, and renowned Kenyan conservationist. His parents, Louis and Mary Leakey, were prominent palaeontologists, finding and excavating key sites around Africa.

Story from BBC NEWS:

Published: 2007/05/30 15:03:08 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[WhistlingJack]

Arctic Ice No Barrier For Plants

Arctic ice no barrier for plants



Arctic plants are able to migrate the distances needed to survive changes to the climate, scientists have suggested.

Habitats are expected to shift further north as the planet warms, and plants' inability to move quickly enough has been a cause for concern.

But researchers, writing in the journal Science, suggest seeds can be carried vast distances by the wind and sea ice.

The biggest challenge, they added, was likely to be their ability to establish themselves in the new habitat.

Researchers from Norway and France analysed more than 4,000 samples of nine flowering plant species found on the remote Svalbard islands inside the Arctic Circle.

By analysing the genetic fingerprints of the plants, the team reconstructed past plant colonization and decline in the area.

They found evidence that seeds from plants from various sources, including Russia and Greenland, had repeatedly colonized the islands over the past 20,000 years when climatic conditions allowed.

Likewise, when the islands cooled, the plants died out because they were unable to survive under blankets of ice.

Climatologists project the polar regions are going to experience the largest degree of climate change over the coming century, risking the long term stability of ecosystems.

"Climate change is expected to cause the distribution area of many plant species to shift northwards in the Northern Hemisphere," the researchers wrote in their paper.

"The composition of future ecosystems will critically depend on the long-distance dispersal capabilities of individual species."

It had been assumed that long-distance dispersal of seeds happened rarely and randomly, making the chance of colonization unlikely.

Yet, the team said, the study suggested it was more common than previously thought.

"Probable dispersal vectors are wind, drift wood and drifting sea ice, birds and mammals.

"North-western Russia and Greenland are frequently connected to Svalbard by way of sea ice during the winter.

"Bank erosion along the Russian rivers routinely results in logs and other debris finding their way onto drifting sea ice, which reaches Svalbard by means of surface currents."

They suggested the main limiting factor was the plants' ability to establish themselves through "germination, survival and local reproduction".

"This interpretation is supported by our observation that 80-90% of the most cold-adapted species that occur in the potential source zones are currently present in Svalbard," the team wrote.

Whereas, they added, only 40-60% of the species limited to zones where summer temperatures of 6-7C (43-45F) were found on the islands.

The findings suggest future studies should have greater confidence that seeds can travel long distances, and place more emphasis on whether there is suitable habitat to sustain the plant species.

Story from BBC NEWS:

Published: 2007/06/15 07:50:13 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[eburacum]

Plants (and insects) may be able to survive periods of rapid climate change; after all, that is the defining characteristic of the Quaternary period (or so it seems to me). But large animals might find it more difficult.

In other periods of rapid change, such as the beginning or end of a glaciation period, large animals could generally migrate to follow the biomes as they moved noth and south, only prevented by major mountain ranges. But today the planet is covered in human habitation and infrastructure, even more barriers which will probably prevent such adaptive movements.

 

[rynner2]

Climate change blamed as Superior shrinks
By Leonard Doyle in Washington
Published: 20 June 2007

Lake Superior, largest of the Great Lakes and the world's largest freshwater reservoir, has fallen to its lowest level in 81 years, further evidence of the effect that climate change is having on the North American continent.

The lake is a foot and a half below its long-term average. The last time it was this low was in 1926. Falling water levels mean that once-floating boat docks are high and dry, cargo vessels are severely restricted, hydroelectric power is curtailed and lakeshore ecology is changing fast.

Researchers at the University of Minnesota have measured an average temperature rise of 4.5F since 1979. The warmer water is evaporating faster and holding less ice in winter. For the first time in living memory, the ice and snow that usually covers the lake by early December arrived late, allowing water to evaporate.

"It's been a long time since we've been this low, but it has happened," said Tim Calappi of the US Army Corps of Engineers, which is responsible for all large dams and public engineering projects in the US. "We still think this is within range of what's normal, but we have to wait and see."

Others are certain the cause is global warming and in the absence of an official explanation conspiracy theories abound. The effects are dramatic and obvious, however. Boats with keels can no longer operate in many areas, beaches have been left far from the water and large areas of wetlands where wild rice grew have dried out.

Other large bodies of water are also severely depleted. Lake Huron and Lake Michigan are well below average. Thousands of miles away to the south and east, Lake Mead near Las Vegas and Lake Powell on the Utah-Arizona border are only half full. Florida's vast and shallow Lake Okeechobee is at an all-time low.

http://environment.independent.co.uk/cl ... 679474.ece

 

[WhistlingJack]

Heatwaves Will 'Boost Death Rate'

Heatwaves will 'boost death rate'

The increasing number of deaths caused by heatwaves as the climate changes will not be offset by fewer deaths in milder winters, US research claims.

The study in Occupational and Environmental Medicine said the death rate in 50 US cities rose more sharply in very hot spells than very cold ones.

People had already adapted to the cold with central heating, the study said, but remained unused to intense heat.

Many more people currently die in cold weather conditions than hot ones.

In the UK for instance, there are 20,000 cold-related deaths each year and 1,000 heat-related.

Many experts believe we will see fewer deaths as a result of the milder winters climate change may bring, and that getting warmer is far preferable to getting colder.

Researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health looked at the deaths of more than 6.5 million people in 50 US cities between 1989 and 2000.

They found that during two-day cold snaps there was a 1.59% increase in deaths because of the extreme temperatures, but during similar periods of extremely hot weather death rates rose by 5.74%.

While all 50 US cities showed similar rises in deaths when temperatures plummeted, more deaths were seen during extreme temperature hikes in cities with usually milder summers and less air conditioning.

The authors suggest that this is because the use of central heating is widespread, whereas fewer people have air conditioning in their homes.

They did say however that the problem could be reduced by greater access to air conditioning facilities.

Professor Bill Keatinge of Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry in London said the study's findings did not present any cause for alarm.

People were learning to protect themselves against both the cold and the heat. Even now, he said, "we're seeing fewer cold-related deaths without a big rise in heat-related deaths".

"In the long term we may have to make some lifestyle changes - working at different times for instance, but nothing that is not manageable."

Story from BBC NEWS:

Published: 2007/06/27 23:48:18 GMT

© BBC MMVII

 

[rynner2]

The authors suggest that this is because the use of central heating is widespread, whereas fewer people have air conditioning in their homes.

They did say however that the problem could be reduced by greater access to air conditioning facilities.

And the increase in power use to run AC would increase CO2 emissions, accelerating global warming......


We're doomed! Doomed!

 

[rynner2]

June wettest for nearly 50 years

June was the wettest for 50 years

Northern Ireland has experienced its wettest June in nearly 50 years with 133.3 mm of rainfall - more than twice the monthly average.
But weather experts said while it was wetter, it was also a degree warmer than usual.

John McFarland, Armagh Observatory, said June had the highest rainfall since 1958 and was the fifth wettest since 1838.

Sunshine was down by about 25%, although the temperature was up.

Hundreds of homes in Belfast and parts of counties Tyrone and Down were flooded after June's torrential rain.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6260766.stm

My bolds. Makes yer think, don't it!

Of course, this is not proof of Global Warming; it's just another straw on the camel's back...