Human Population Growth & Overpopulation

eburacum

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The population of every continent will be in decline by 2100 - except for Africa. We have basically solved the problem of population everywhere else. Solving the problem of population growth in the continent of Africa will be the biggest challenge of the 21st century. But there is a trend in the West to abandon Africa to its fate, and to build barriers and walls to reduce our interaction with countries with continued growth.

That might work, from our point of view, but I doubt it. We can't bury our heads in the sand.

In any case, the influence of China in those countries will be growing. By 2200, nearly everyone in the world will be Chinese, Indian or African, and the influence of the West in the world will be minimal. Hopefully, by 2200 every country in the world will have passed the demographic transition and will have a declining population- but of course by that time our median age will be about 60.
pop.png
 

INT21

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Eburacum,

That chart is very depressing; though possibly accurate.

As for, metaphorically building a wall around Africa and leaving them to it, many, if not most of the people coming into Europe via the various back doors are Africans. If we can't stop them now, what chance in the future ?
 

brownmane

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This may have already been mentioned, but in past (before industrial revolution) families were large due to reality of high infant mortality and families needing hands to work to maintain survival.

Third world countries are still scrabbling to survive and have few resources for much else.
 

INT21

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Brownmane,

There was an interesting documentary a while back in which the commentator followed a woman in Africa who was an onion farmer. She was having trouble selling her onions because the country was importing them from China and selling them for less than she could. Also the same problem for chicken portions.

If the African states are used in this way, simply as a market place for other countries surplus goods, or as a means of barter for oil etc, then the local population will not be able to prosper.
 

Mythopoeika

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Brownmane,

There was an interesting documentary a while back in which the commentator followed a woman in Africa who was an onion farmer. She was having trouble selling her onions because the country was importing them from China and selling them for less than she could. Also the same problem for chicken portions.

If the African states are used in this way, simply as a market place for other countries surplus goods, or as a means of barter for oil etc, then the local population will not be able to prosper.
The Chinese have bought up vast swathes of some African countries and are employing locals to grow crops at a really cheap price. Those crops are sent to China and the locals can't buy them (unless they are prepared to pay more money).
 

brownmane

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Brownmane,

There was an interesting documentary a while back in which the commentator followed a woman in Africa who was an onion farmer. She was having trouble selling her onions because the country was importing them from China and selling them for less than she could. Also the same problem for chicken portions.

If the African states are used in this way, simply as a market place for other countries surplus goods, or as a means of barter for oil etc, then the local population will not be able to prosper.
Do you remember the name of the documentary? I saw one about Walmart working the same way, and one farmer who gave an example that if it cost him $1.00 to produce a cabbage, Walmart would only give him $0.50 per, leaving him with the problem of leaving the produce to rot or selling it for less than it cost to produce. This farmer was from Britain.
 

INT21

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Sorry, can't help. It was a while ago and was only a short docu' that I happened to accidentally see; I tend to record the longer ones.
There are many similar cases. The cost of producing dairy being more than the farmers are paid.

It's all a mess.
 

Mythopoeika

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Do you remember the name of the documentary? I saw one about Walmart working the same way, and one farmer who gave an example that if it cost him $1.00 to produce a cabbage, Walmart would only give him $0.50 per, leaving him with the problem of leaving the produce to rot or selling it for less than it cost to produce. This farmer was from Britain.
Tesco does similar things here in the UK. That's got to change at some point.
 

Mungoman

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Unfortunately this seems to be the way of the world in general.

It is happening in Australia too Brownmane.

Chinese ownership of Australian land - be it private or directly connected to the Government of the PRC, totals an area of 91,000 square kilometres - approximately one and a half Tasmania's...

And, the Australian Government have leased every major shipping Port to China for 99 years.

It seems that Australia IS for sale.
 

AlchoPwn

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And what do women in third world countries have to do with constant asexual reproduction as Alcopwn suggests or with ARGH FEMINAZIS as Enola Gaia suggests? o_O
In case you haven't noticed, there has been a steady increase in female education in the developing world, and it is slowly applying some brakes to population growth. I never suggested that reproduction was asexual, but, educated women are less likely to breed as they don't want to spend their lives taking care of chilcren, and are more likely to understand and choose to use contraception.
 

Min Bannister

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In case you haven't noticed, there has been a steady increase in female education in the developing world, and it is slowly applying some brakes to population growth. I never suggested that reproduction was asexual, but, educated women are less likely to breed as they don't want to spend their lives taking care of chilcren, and are more likely to understand and choose to use contraception.
Sure but in case you have forgotten what you wrote, here it is again:-

For example, female education does provide a brake on population growth to some degree, but what about women who are just naturally stupid and fecund and won't keep their legs crossed?
Those naturally stupid women can keep their legs open all they want but they will be unable to chug out any babies unless naturally stupid men have unprotected sex with them.

Tl;dr - it takes two to tango.
I've consistently witnessed these exact three vectors in publicly espoused reactions on reproductive and gender issues, dating back to the sometimes riotous contraception debates in the 1960's.
On here? I have only ever seen that sort of stuff trotted out on here by men, claiming that is what women say. No women on here say it. The only people on here who talk about hating men are men and a very small minority of men at that. Do you hate yourselves? It is very tiresome.
 

AnonyJoolz

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It's because, in 3rd world countries in particular, women don't have equality. Educate them about their life choices and they may not have so many babies. There would be some form of rebellion against being baby making machines. At least, that's the idea.
The predicted rise in global population is mainly caused by older people not dying sooner due to better medical care; the global children-per-woman figure is almost down to replacement levels at 2.44 (in 2016) and may well fall further. Many 'third world' countries have similar child-per-woman stats as the developed world, particularly in parts of Asia, where education for girls has really been promoted, as has the message of the desirability of small families. Cf Nepal 2.12 to Netherlands 1.75 in 2016, for example.

However there does remain the thorny issue in that Muslim-majority countries are tending to consistently give birth to multiple children and this may well have implications for the world demographic as a whole. However female rights and education could act against this.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN

I can recommend Prof. Hans Rosling's documentary about population that challenges our belief about the effects of various assumptions we make about population growth: The short version is that it's the number of people using the highest level of resources we have to worry about, and that the global population has to take a step down from being uber-consumers in order to survive.


 
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eburacum

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The late Prof Rosling was my hero, as you may have noticed.
Brownmane said:
Third world countries are still scrabbling to survive and have few resources for much else.
They are scrabbling to survive, but they have plenty of resources. The continent of Africa as a whole, for example, has sufficient water for its needs, unlike the continent of North America, which is in a state of constant water famine.

This is the so called Resource Curse, and it is basically caused by kleptocracy and trade imbalances.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
 

AlchoPwn

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Sure but in case you have forgotten what you wrote, here it is again:- Those naturally stupid women can keep their legs open all they want but they will be unable to chug out any babies unless naturally stupid men have unprotected sex with them.
Remember, half of all people have an IQ below 100, and and IQ of 100 is already pretty dumb. So yeah, the 50% of the female population for whom education simply doesn't take (the half who are dumber than the other half) do tend to add "meaning" to their lives by overproducing children from what I have observed of the human condition. Nature's little miracles are pretty thick under foot in dumbdumb-land.

Tl;dr - it takes two to tango.
So you've never heard of artificial insemination? It doesn't take 2 to tango on this issue anymore. The courts have also stripped men of any say whatsoever in a mother's choice to have or not have a baby, despite thefact that the guys were also responsible for producing the child and will be responsible for paying for raising them. Nope, the courts just pick your pocket. Again, that's a pretty 1-sided tango these days and I'm very glad I didn't trigger that trap; it's a full-on life wrecker that I want no part of.

On here? I have only ever seen that sort of stuff trotted out on here by men, claiming that is what women say. No women on here say it. The only people on here who talk about hating men are men and a very small minority of men at that. Do you hate yourselves? It is very tiresome.
Well, let's just say that life as a single man is pretty blissful, and I'd never trade it for marriage, which is such a brittle and obsolete institution these days. As far as I am concerned women have priced themselves out of the market. As for children, well, they're okay I guess, but they do constitute a fairly boring hobby for the first 15 years of their lives, then just when they start to have opinions worth listening to, you get a 3 year window, then they're packed off to college. I just short circuited the process and went to work at a college.
 
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AlchoPwn

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@AlchoPwn - I know you love a good wind up but I can't really be bothered to play any more. :hoff:
In other words, you can't really make a solid argument against my position, and I make you philosophically uncomfortable because I don't validate your life choices and social programming. Don't worry, I have that affect on women.
 

brownmane

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The late Prof Rosling was my hero, as you may have noticed.

They are scrabbling to survive, but they have plenty of resources. The continent of Africa as a whole, for example, has sufficient water for its needs, unlike the continent of North America, which is in a state of constant water famine.

This is the so called Resource Curse, and it is basically caused by kleptocracy and trade imbalances.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse
I was not referring to land resources, I was referring more to the poor people who expend more energy to just survive daily and their fight to improve their situations. They may have water resources, but the ability and ease to access clean water is another issue or to access other resources, such as housing and education.

Sorry I see I used the word "countries" when I should have been more specific and said people.
 

brownmane

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As far as I am concerned women have priced themselves out of the market
I have never asked a guy to buy me anything (other than a b-day gift). I pay my own way, thanks.:cat:

And it is being discussed that in the future, men may not have to be used for fertilization. That in itself might keep the population at bay.:jtease:
 

AlchoPwn

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I have never asked a guy to buy me anything (other than a b-day gift). I pay my own way, thanks.:cat:
Great! Keep it up.

And it is being discussed that in the future, men may not have to be used for fertilization. That in itself might keep the population at bay.:jtease:
Or completely end the species. But really, who cares? Society is atomizing under the forces of individualist alienation, and technology is pushing the process along rapidly. The logical outcome of all life is ultimately eventually extinction. It's the classic trap of giving people exactly what they want and watching them kill themselves with it. Really, that's okay tho because if life is meaningless, then so is death.
:jtease:
 

INT21

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..The predicted rise in global population is mainly caused by older people not dying sooner due to better medical ..

No it isn't , any more than replacement numbers will cause an increase even if every one died at 60.

INT21
 

EnolaGaia

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I was not referring to land resources, I was referring more to the poor people who expend more energy to just survive daily and their fight to improve their situations. They may have water resources, but the ability and ease to access clean water is another issue or to access other resources, such as housing and education. ...
As long as daily life in a particular locale or setting involves considerable reliance on basic human effort, there will continue to be a tacit motivation to enhance one's household's (or village's; etc.) labor reservoir by adding children. Consider the longstanding meme or conventional wisdom that large families are a means to facilitate effective, if not expanded, farming.

This is a sort of steady-state situation in the sense it expands a certain layer or stratum of the labor force without necessarily fostering mobility out of that stratum. Phrased another way - improving the situation is not the objective.

Meanwhile, the purported profits from resource riches have rarely been significantly directed to improving the situations of the overall population and / or providing the opportunities to bootstrap oneself out of the strata where child production has traditionally been construed as valuable.
 

INT21

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AlchoPwn,

...
Again, that's a pretty 1-sided tango these days and I'm very glad I didn't trigger that trap; it's a full-on life wrecker that I want no part of...

Definitely a MGTOW
 

INT21

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Enola Gaia,

..
This is a sort of steady-state situation in the sense it expands a certain layer or stratum of the labor force without necessarily fostering mobility out of that stratum. Phrased another way - improving the situation is not the objective.

Quite clearly so. But your argument does not address the common situation where there are very many people hanging around with nothing to do. Many on land that they could bring into productivity if they only organised themselves.
Often these places are, quite literally, shitholes. With piles of rubbish everywhere, open sewers or people just crapping where ever the urge takes them.
And in the case of many African states, the only thing in common is that they are heavily armed and run buy a few well heeled gangsters who hold the top positions.


Really just 21 Century tribalism.

INT21
 
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Mungoman

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I recently had access to a breakdown of my DNA concerning ethnicity. Interesting. I have a 4% linkage to the Indian Sub Continent, a 5% linkage to the Iberian Peninsula, 3% to the Caucasus and the usual Norway, Scotland, Ireland and east Midlands.

Through a family tree (thanks to my Daughter, Faith, and the wonders of genealogists everywhere) It has also introduced me to the vagaries of life as far back as the late 1500's so far.

Some women died at 50...after a lifetime of childbirth, I would imagine (most births from one poor woman -15) the men at 40 or so (occupational hazards) - but those that survived, more then two thirds lived past 70, with one dying in the late 1600's at 92. Those that did die early were of stock from the midlands predominantly, with the longer aged being from Haddington East Lothian, Chesire and Alnwick.

It HAS been an eye opener.
 

AlchoPwn

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AlchoPwn, Again, that's a pretty 1-sided tango these days and I'm very glad I didn't trigger that trap; it's a full-on life wrecker that I want no part of...
Definitely a MGTOW
Now that I have looked it up, I can certainly sympathize with all those MGTOWs. Thanks for clueing me in to their existence.

With regards to parenthood, as Rust Cole/Pizzolato puts it "I think of the hubris it must take, to yank a sole out of nonexistence into this meat; a force of life into this thresher." is something more parents should be forced to confront. While some people can say that parenthood is a wonderful, life-affirming, and positive experience, nobody really puts enough of a case for the negative, and there are HUGE negatives.
 
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EnolaGaia

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... Quite clearly so. But your argument does not address the common situation where there are very many people hanging around with nothing to do. ...
This is a different factor relating to the outcome (generating more worker bees than requirements demand) rather than the basic scenario.

This excess beyond requirements is evident to me worldwide, not just in those areas where basic human physical effort is a fundamental and critical resource.
 
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