One thing that definitely seems to be on the increase is the general public fascination with other people being homosexual. If two consenting adults have sex in private, and if there is no unfaithfulness involved, it affects no one else. Nevertheless, it becomes a big story if someone in the public eye is "discovered" to be gay. We seem to have swung from "it goes on but we don't talk about it" to "it goes on and we can't shut up about it."
That aside, the opening question of this thread was
is homosexuality on the increase?
It seems insensitive to discuss this in quite the dispassionate and analytical terms we might use when considering "Does Bigfoot exist?" or "Are ghosts real?"
We are discussing something that is, or ought to be, a matter of personal identity and privacy for a substantial minority of the population. For the straight majority, perhaps it is "none of our business".
There is also a danger of using the wrong form of words, or expressing something clumsily, or inadvertently relying on a stereotype or preconception, and causing upset when none is intended.
With these caveats out of the way, my preliminary question would be, "What do we mean by homosexuality?" This is not a trivial question.
Are we referring solely to homosexual acts and activity, or to homosexuality as an innate quality of some individuals? There are many different things going on. Homosexuality is not one monolithic thing.
- Homosexual activity that relies on context: prisoners who have no access to heterosexual sex. People who use forced sex as a tool of control or as a way of asserting their dominant position. With more people in prison than ever before (in some western countries) perhaps there is an increase. Historically, it may have been the case that homosexual activity was accepted and common in certain other contexts such as seafaring, when no women were available. There is also the cliché about homosexuality at boarding schools.
- Homosexual activity as a cultural choice. Upper class men in ancient Greece took a younger male lover as a protégé. Certain homosexual acts were not only accepted or "permissible" but were de rigueur. However, other homosexual acts, or homosexuality in different social contexts, was considered shameful. In crude terms, the older man could only be "tops", and a man who continued to be "bottoms" after a certain age was frowned upon. More recently, in the 1960s/80s, there was a period when female homosexual activity was, for want of a better term, "fashionable" in certain social groups. I personally know women who "had a lesbian phase" when they were involved in various protest movements, before they reverted to heterosexual relationships or marriage as their lives moved on.
- Homosexuality as an innate preference. What used to be referred to, somewhat pejoratively, as a "proclivity". There is no obvious reason to think that in a couple of generations, there has been a detectable evolutionary trend in favour of homosexuality. Indeed, I am no geneticist, but it seems to me that the "homosexual gene" if such a thing exists would have a reduced probability of being passed on.
- Homosexual activity that is now engaged in but which might previously have been repressed for social, religious, or legal reasons. There is almost certainly an increase in this. If it is no longer illegal and no longer stigmatised, it is likely to happen more often.
- Homosexual experimentation. A combination of de-stigmatisation coupled with increased visibility in the media (more high profile gay performers and sports personalities) may encourage more young people to experiment as they are learning about themselves.
- Homosexual activity by people who are bisexual. If it is the case that this is increasing then that might be measured as an increase in homosexual activity rather than homosexuality per se.
- Increased homosexual activity that parallels a general increase in sexual freedom. If, as a working assumption, homosexuals are a fixed percentage of the population, then now that we as a society have more sexual freedom, it follows that there will be more homosexual activity. The increase will be more or less in proportion to the increase in heterosexual activity. Set against this is that the increase in heterosexual activity is largely because of reliable birth control. This does not affect homosexual activity.
Another aspect is the difference, in my mind at least, between a person who is homosexual in their private life and someone who is homosexual and is an active part of the gay community. Not all gay men are camp and fabulous. I have two gay friends, a married couple, who are the scruffiest most unfashionable blokes you could meet. When the straight majority notices the Pride marches, and high camp gay performers on TV, and so on, we do not notice the countless people unobtrusively getting on with their lives as homosexuals.