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Supervolcanoes / Supervolcanos

Vulcanism and Impacts

Emp is correct that flood basalts are an important factor in explaining past extinction events. One notable absence from the list of such deposits is that of the Columbia Plateau in the northwest US. During late Miocene and early Pliocene times (between 17 and 6 million years ago), one of the largest basaltic lava floods ever to appear on the earth's surface engulfed about 63,000 square miles of the Pacific Northwest. Over a period of perhaps 10 to 15 million years lava flow after lava flow poured out, eventually accumulating to a thickness of more than 6,000 feet. However, most of the lava flowed during the first 1.5 million years. Being that the molten flooding occured on the cusp of recent geologic epochs, the eruptions are linked to the extinctions of many large mammals.

http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/ColumbiaPlateau/framework.html

Recent detractors from the impact theory for the vast K-T extinction event provide solid evidence that the an impact(s) was not the ONLY factor in the mass extinction. According to Gerta Keller, a paleontologist of Princeton University, the impact of a meteor or comet in the Late Cretaceous was "the straw that broke the camel's back" and not the sole cause of extinctions. Furthermore, it has long been known that dinosaurs were in decline when a geologically sudden event authored their demise. Of course, many other species went with them, though in separate ecosystems. While the sequence of events may be argued, it does seem clear that more than one factor triggered the K-T carnage.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2003/09/030926065930.htm
 
I definetely think a meteorite 6 miles accross would have helped wipe out a lot of life, I remember reading somewhere that the Deccan lava flood plains in India may have been caused by said meteorite?(they being geometrically opposite the yucatan impact point). Also I thought an Iridium layer was the best indicator that the layer did not originate from vulcanism?
 
xeno: Flood basalts are definitely caused by the upwelling of magma from deep in the mantel.

The Iridium layer demonstrates that the origin was either extra terrestrial or from deep inside the mantel (as ordinary volcanoes are formed by melting crust in the upper mantle).

Emps
 
With all due respect Emp, I must correct your spelling of "mantle."
 
Emp: I was unaware of that and had always seen "mantle." I learn something new every day.

As to the subject, I wonder about how devastating an eruption from a caldera could be. Though it would certainly be huge, one hopes that it would be somewhat localized in its effects. However, I don't think we know the duration of an event like that. Nevertheless, when atmospheric circulation is considered, the plume of particulates and gases would go far and wide.

Historical records of large volcanic explosion events are few, namely, Krakatoa and Thera. While Thera formed a caldera, where the Minoan Culture was centered, no actual historical record of the event exists. It is however, implied when taking various evidence into consideration. Perhaps one effect of that explosion were particular Biblical plagues in Egypt. In fact, that argument is well-developed. One could also argue it was so devastating that another effect of it was to erase the memory of it from human history!
 
In terms of the lifetime of a supervolcano, how much is 50000 years? Are we looking at 0.0001% or 20%?

That probably affects how much we should worry about it.
 
Breakfast: Worry surely never accomplishes anything, awareness however, enlightens. The likelihood of an explosion may be explicable statistically, but that doesn't say when it will occur. However, the fact remains that the record of explosions is indicative of a blast at any time. Moreover, the rising land surface in the caldera does not bode well either. Geologically, though, the time scale of eruptive events far exceeds human history.
 
I see your point, but there is a question of significance - if my bus is 30 seconds late it is nothing out of the ordinary, but if the bus is 30 minutes late it is time for a strongly worded letter.

I don't think that, aside from that one that wiped out all but a few hundred humans 70000 years ago (sketchy memory, but I think it had it's own episode of Horizon...) there have been any of these global-scale catastrophies in anyone's life time and geological time is so slow that I'm not in the least bit worried about any of them really. I'm sure we have lots of stupid ways of wiping ourselves out, which are probably more of a problem than some maybe or maybe not kind of a natural cataclysm. And anyway, it may not be a great consolation as the comet hits the super-volcano at the moment the mega-tsunami arises by freak co-incidence, but really there are far too many of us humans and we are little more than a destructive plague on the face of the planet so no great loss, in terms of the bigger picture...
 
Well said, Breakfast. Unfortunately that is very good point in your conclusion. Also I believe that it is correct that humans are more of a danger to ourselves than external factors. Hopefully we may become transcendent of our base natures.

http://www.alberteinstein.info/
 
Bulging earth under Yellowstone Lake raises fears
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, Wyo. -- Below the blue waters of Yellowstone Lake, a mysterious dome 2,100 feet across and 100 feet high is causing concern among scientists and citizens who don't know whether it's a harmless curiosity or a hazard on the verge of exploding.

The dome, also called a bulge, is less than a mile from shore and was recently explored by researchers with the U.S. Geological Survey, using unmanned submarines and sonar.
"It could be the precursor to a hydrothermal explosion," said Lisa Morgan, a geologist leading the team.

Hydrothermal blasts occur when super-heated water, often under extreme pressure, rapidly flashes to steam, hurling rocks and sometimes gouging out huge craters.
News of the dome comes at a time of increased activity beneath Yellowstone, which experienced a magnitude 4.4 earthquake in August.
In July, the park shut down part of a popular trail near the Norris Geyser Basin because the ground heated up to 200 degrees.

The events have sparked Internet chatter and fear from some that a catastrophe is at hand.
But scientists and park officials have cautioned against panic, saying that Yellowstone is intensely monitored for any changes.
Morgan said while the dome may explode, it might just as easily collapse or simply do nothing.
Still, she and park officials are drawing up a hazard-assessment plan just in case.
"A hydrothermal explosion is an extreme event and a rare event but they have happened," Morgan said.

Mary Bay, an area of the lake near the dome, was created by a hydrothermal blast more than 13,000 years ago that scientists consider to be one of the biggest explosions in geologic history. There are at least five other craters in Yellowstone Lake caused by enormous eruptions.

Exactly what damage an explosion would cause today is being investigated. Morgan said it could eject rocks and poisonous gas and cause waves as high as 20 feet. Whether the damage would spread beyond the park depends on the force of the blast.
"No one has ever witnessed a large hydrothermal explosion. It's a steam explosion, which can be as powerful as TNT," park geologist Hank Heasler said.
Heasler keeps tabs on the rising temperatures in the park through a network of sensors.

The park, which draws 3 million visitors a year, sits atop one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, a deep caldera 45 miles long and 30 miles across, with more than 10,000 vents, geysers and bubbling pools of hot water.
Scientists compare the place to a piecrust expanding with steam then subsiding as heat escapes through the crust.

Geologists estimate that the last big eruption happened 640,000 years ago, when the volcano sent ash as far south as Texas. Scientists say it was 1,000 times more powerful than the Mount Saint Helens cataclysm in 1980. There have been 30 eruptions since.

The lake floor remained largely a mystery until researchers using cameras on robot submarines began exploring it.
Down among the shadows, the team saw more than 250 thermal vents, fissures, geyser basins and columns of silica soaring 30 feet high.
"Everyone is paying attention to the bulge, but it's only one feature," said Morgan, who has studied the lake for five years. "We found extensive fault systems and landslides. When you think of all the seismic energy that could be released, it could be extreme."
A Web site claims Yellowstone "will blow its cork" in the next six months, causing "the three days of darkness spoken of in the Bible."
Such talk confounds park officials and scientists.
"We say the park is safe," said Yellowstone spokeswoman Cheryl Matthews.
Click to expand...
 
I saw a TV prog about this, probably on the usual Discovery Channel. Very scary. If you want a real fright, put the word 'caldera' into Google. :eek:
 
I've seen one a bit more recent than the Horizon but I think I saw that one too. Scared me stiff.

So we have the caldera to look forward to, plus the super-tsunami, plus whatever super-meteors are lurking in space. That's before we get onto global warming, the cessation of the Gulf Stream, pollution, CJD, AIDS, destruction of the ozone layer...........:eek:

*pours self a stiff Lucozade and gulps it down.*
 
Not to mention the imminent pole shift. Just reminds you how fragile this whole system is. It's survivable, it seems, just so long as you're not sat on top of it when it blows! I wonder what kind of a civilization will sprout from the pruned one of today. Who is better equipped to survive, those that live with hardship every day or the technologically dependent Westerners? I wonder.
 
escargot said:
I saw a TV prog about this, probably on the usual Discovery Channel. Very scary. If you want a real fright, put the word 'caldera' into Google. :eek:
Click to expand...

I get lots of sites about UNIX ... :eek!!!!:
 
unicycle said:
I'm willing to bet that the science based armageddon that gets us is the one that hasn't been thought of yet. Good bet to make, who's gonna be around to collect?
Click to expand...
I still think its more probable that the way armageddon will occur will be by something discovered by humans [insert mushroom cloud here]:eek:
 
Search said:
I still think its more probable that the way armageddon will occur will be by something discovered by humans [insert mushroom cloud here]:eek:
Click to expand...

Armageddon? Caused by us? Quite possibly.

But an extinction event is more likely to finish the lot of us for good.
 
Maybe old news? From Sky News anyhow:

SUPERVOLCANOES WARNING

Slumbering supervolcanoes powerful enough to wipe out much of the planet may awaken much sooner than it had previously been thought.

Experts believed it would take hundreds of thousands of years for reservoirs of molton rock, or magma, beneath a supervolcano to build for an eruption.


But a new study indicates the time between super-eruptions can actually be tens of thousands of years - and many are already long overdue.

A blast from a supervolcano would be strong enough cause mass extinction and change the world's climate.

The findings, published in the Journal of Petrology, are bad news for anyone living in the centre of the US.

An overdue monster supervolcano is hidden underneath one of the country's premier holiday spots - Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming.

The last blast there, which occurred more than 600,000 years ago, covered half the US - around 3,000sq miles - with volcanic ash.

Researchers in New Zealand analysed zircon crystals, which grow within volcanic magma, to calculate how long build up takes before eruptions.

Their answer was no more than 40,000 years - a relatively short time in geological terms.

Supervolcanoes are estimated to carry a force thousands of times that of a normal explosion.

They spew thousands of cubic yards of ash, dust and poisonous sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere and create a giant crater, or caldera.

Recent measurements indicate that over the past century the earth above the Yellowstone magma chamber has risen almost 19 inches. Scientists say this is telling evidence of pressure building below.
 
Experts weigh super-volcano risks
By Paul Rincon
BBC News science reporter

Geologists have called for a taskforce to be set up to consider emergency management in the event of a massive volcanic eruption, or super-eruption.

The recommendation comes in a report timed to coincide with a BBC TV drama that depicts a fictional super-eruption at Yellowstone Park in Wyoming, US.

Experts say such an event would have a colossal impact on a global scale.

A super-eruption is also five to 10 times more likely to happen than an asteroid impact, the report claims.

Prof Stephen Self, Open University

The authors want to highlight the issue, which they feel is being ignored by governments. They emphasise that while catastrophic eruptions of this kind are rare in terms of a human lifetime, they are surprisingly common on a geological scale.

The effects, say the authors, "could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilisation" - putting events such as the Asian tsunami into the shade.

The fallout from a super-eruption could cause a "volcanic winter", devastating global agriculture and causing mass starvation.

High frequency

It would have a similar effect to a 1.5km-diameter space rock striking Earth, they claim.

But while impacts of this type are estimated to occur once every 400-500,000 years, the frequency of equivalent super-eruptions is about once every 100,000 years.

"These are minimum estimates. Super-eruptions could be even more frequent; we just don't know," said Professor Stephen Self, a geologist at the Open University in Milton Keynes and a member of the working group that produced the report.

"We still have a lot of unassessed regions of the world. The US is the place where we see the largest number of super-eruptions. But that may be because more work has been done there."

One past super-eruption struck at Toba in Sumatra 74,000 years ago and is thought by some to have driven the human race to the edge of extinction. Signs from DNA suggest human numbers could have dropped to about 10,000, probably as a result of the effects of climate change.

The TV drama, called Supervolcano, sticks closely to scientific understanding of these events.

The plot revolves around a series of violent eruptions at Yellowstone in Wyoming that send thousands of cubic metres of rock, gas and ash spiralling up in cloud that rains down over three-quarters of the United States.

Contingency plans

Highways become blocked with cars as millions flee the unfolding disaster, and as the chain of eruptions unzips Yellowstone's volcanic crater, hundreds of thousands are killed as the ash swamps whole towns and cities.

America's food-producing regions are devastated, communications are knocked out and planes are forced out of the sky.

Sulphuric acid droplets form in the atmosphere, blocking out sunlight, and causing global temperatures to plummet.

Professor Stephen Sparks, of Bristol University, an author on the new report, said civil contingency plans would need to be similar to those for a nuclear war.

"You would need contingencies for food and shelter. But you would need to put a serious amount of resources into any effort to cope with an event on this scale, so it poses a dilemma," he said.

The volcanic winter resulting from a super-eruption could last several years or decades, depending on the scale of an eruption, and according to recent computer models, could cause cooling on a global scale of 5-10C.

Damage limitation

Ailsa Orr, producer of Supervolcano, said that when the programme team presented the scenario to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), the agency admitted it had given little thought to such an event happening on American soil.

"We don't want to be sensationalist about this, but it's going to happen. We just can't say exactly when," said Professor Self.

"But we have just had a natural disaster affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Now is the time to be thinking about this."

Yellowstone is the largest volcanic system in North America. The area's cauldrons of bubbling mud and roaring geysers attract nearly three million visitors each year.

It was an obvious choice for the programme makers as the site of their super-eruption because of its location on a highly populated continent and because it has already had three of these events, which have occurred roughly 600,000 years apart from each other.

The crater from the last super-eruption, 640,000 years ago, is large enough to fit Tokyo - the world's biggest city - inside it.

The report, released by The Geological Society in the UK, identifies at least 31 sites where super-eruptions have occurred in the past. They include Lake Taupo in New Zealand and the Phlegrean Fields near Naples, Italy.

The drama Supervolcano is broadcast in two parts, on BBC One on Sunday 13 March and Monday 14 March. Both transmissions are at 2100 GMT. Two science documentaries called Supervolcano: The Truth About Yellowstone are broadcast after the drama, on BBC Two. Again, these air on Sunday and Monday but at the later time of 2200 GMT
Click to expand...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4326987.stm
 
Experts weigh super-volcano risks

There is soon to be a program looking into what would happen if a massive erruption occured.Apologies if this has been discussed previously, i did search but couldnt find a thread solely about it.


Experts weigh super-volcano risks



Geologists have called for a taskforce to be set up to consider emergency management in the event of a massive volcanic eruption, or super-eruption.

The recommendation comes in a report timed to coincide with a BBC TV drama that depicts a fictional super-eruption at Yellowstone Park in Wyoming, US


Experts say such an event would have a colossal impact on a global scale.

A super-eruption is also five to 10 times more likely to happen than an asteroid impact, the report claims.

The authors want to highlight the issue, which they feel is being ignored by governments. They emphasise that while catastrophic eruptions of this kind are rare in terms of a human lifetime, they are surprisingly common on a geological scale.

The effects, say the authors, "could be sufficiently severe to threaten the fabric of civilisation" - putting events such as the Asian tsunami into the shade.

The fallout from a super-eruption could cause a "volcanic winter", devastating global agriculture and causing mass starvation.

High frequency

It would have a similar effect to a 1.5km-diameter space rock striking Earth, they claim.

But while impacts of this type are estimated to occur once every 400-500,000 years, the frequency of equivalent super-eruptions is about once every 100,000 years.

"These are minimum estimates. Super-eruptions could be even more frequent; we just don't know," said Professor Stephen Self, a geologist at the Open University in Milton Keynes and a member of the working group that produced the report.

"We still have a lot of unassessed regions of the world. The US is the place where we see the largest number of super-eruptions. But that may be because more work has been done there."

One past super-eruption struck at Toba in Sumatra 74,000 years ago and is thought by some to have driven the human race to the edge of extinction. Signs from DNA suggest human numbers could have dropped to about 10,000, probably as a result of the effects of climate change.

The TV drama, called Supervolcano, sticks closely to scientific understanding of these events.

The plot revolves around a series of violent eruptions at Yellowstone in Wyoming that send thousands of cubic metres of rock, gas and ash spiralling up in cloud that rains down over three-quarters of the United States.

Contingency plans

Highways become blocked with cars as millions flee the unfolding disaster, and as the chain of eruptions unzips Yellowstone's volcanic crater, hundreds of thousands are killed as the ash swamps whole towns and cities.

America's food-producing regions are devastated, communications are knocked out and planes are forced out of the sky.

Sulphuric acid droplets form in the atmosphere, blocking out sunlight, and causing global temperatures to plummet.

Professor Stephen Sparks, of Bristol University, an author on the new report, said civil contingency plans would need to be similar to those for a nuclear war.

"You would need contingencies for food and shelter. But you would need to put a serious amount of resources into any effort to cope with an event on this scale, so it poses a dilemma," he said.

The volcanic winter resulting from a super-eruption could last several years or decades, depending on the scale of an eruption, and according to recent computer models, could cause cooling on a global scale of 5-10C.

Damage limitation

Ailsa Orr, producer of Supervolcano, said that when the programme team presented the scenario to the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema), the agency admitted it had given little thought to such an event happening on American soil.

"We don't want to be sensationalist about this, but it's going to happen. We just can't say exactly when," said Professor Self.

"But we have just had a natural disaster affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Now is the time to be thinking about this."

Yellowstone is the largest volcanic system in North America. The area's cauldrons of bubbling mud and roaring geysers attract nearly three million visitors each year.

It was an obvious choice for the programme makers as the site of their super-eruption because of its location on a highly populated continent and because it has already had three of these events, which have occurred roughly 600,000 years apart from each other.

The crater from the last super-eruption, 640,000 years ago, is large enough to fit Tokyo - the world's biggest city - inside it.

The report, released by The Geological Society in the UK, identifies at least 31 sites where super-eruptions have occurred in the past. They include Lake Taupo in New Zealand and the Phlegrean Fields near Naples, Italy.

The drama Supervolcano is broadcast in two parts, on BBC One on Sunday 13 March and Monday 14 March. Both transmissions are at 2100 GMT. Two science documentaries called Supervolcano: The Truth About Yellowstone are broadcast after the drama, on BBC Two. Again, these air on Sunday and Monday but at the later time of 2200 GMT


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4326987.stm
 
*Crawls under table*

I love volcanoes. They are truly scary and they are REAL! :shock:
Thank you for this link and the TV preview. I'm there, Dude.

(We have a TV thread too, for frightening peeps in advance. 8) )
 
Details of the Beebs Supervolcano fest:

A factual drama (wassat??) on BBC1:

Supervolcano

Sun 13 Mar, 9:00 pm - 10:00 pm 60mins

Part One

Supervolcano is a drama imagining the consequences for the world in the wake of one of nature's most cataclysmic events - a supervolcanic eruption.

There are only about 40 super-volcanoes around the world. But the one with the most lethal potential lies beneath Yellowstone Park in North America, a country home to 300 million people. Scientists know that one day the molten lava that's bulging against the Earth's crust, causing Yellowstone's world famous geysers, mud pots and hot pools, will explode through with devastating consequences - its just a question of when.

Based on the predictions of top volcano experts and scientists, the detailed planning and evacuation scenarios of government agencies and the forecasts of top futurologists, Supervolcano combines the latest scientific knowledge with high drama and stunning visual effects to deliver a television event that will change the way we view the world forever.

Part two of Supervolcano is on BBC ONE on Monday at 9.00pm.

Supervolcano is accompanied by a two-part documentary, The Truth About Yellowstone, which begins tonight on BBC TWO at 10.00pm.

Website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/supervolcano
Click to expand...

Followed by a documentary on BBC2:

Supervolcano: The Truth About...

Sun 13 Mar, 10:00 pm - 10:30 pm 30mins

...Yellowstone.

First of a two-part documentary revealing the cutting-edge research behind the drama series Supervolcano and meeting the experts whose job it is to predict the next eruption.
Click to expand...

and again the next night:

BBC1:

Supervolcano

Mon 14 Mar, 9:00 pm - 10:00 pm 60mins

Conclusion of a two-part factual drama using specially commissioned research to chart the possible consequences of one of nature's most cataclysmic events: a supervolcanic eruption.

There are only about 40 supervolcanoes around the world. But the one with the most lethal potential lies beneath Yellowstone Park in North America, a country home to 300 million people. Scientists know that one day the molten lava that,s bulging against the Earth's crust, causing Yellowstone's world famous geysers, mud pots and hot pools, will explode through with devastating consequences, it's just a question of when.

Based on the predictions of top volcano experts and scientists, the detailed planning and evacuation scenarios of government agencies and the forecasts of top futurologists, Supervolcano combines the latest scientific knowledge with high drama and stunning visual effects to deliver a television event that will change the way we view the world forever.


Website: http://www.bbc.co.uk/supervolcano
Click to expand...

BBC2:

Supervolcano: The Truth About...

Mon 14 Mar, 10:00 pm - 10:30 pm 30mins

...Yellowstone. Second of a two-part documentary revealing the cutting-edge research behind the drama series Supervolcano and meeting the experts whose job it is to predict the next eruption.
Click to expand...
 
Discovery Channel in the US with be airing this in the next few weeks, I think. They a volcano show last night (Tambora, the Cascades and Hawai'i) and they were running teasers for a Supervolcano special.

Growing up in Hawai'i, yeah, volcanoes are astonishing.
 
would it possible to "tap" the volanco, to let the pressure subside?
 
Good fatual drama (better than I thought it would be but I suppose that wasn't difficult) and the documentary was good but I think they ran rather fast and loose with the terms supereruption and supervolcano - Toba may have been more powerful than Krakatoa but it is not in the same league as something like Yellowstone which would count as a true supervolcano and even then (given its position) it is releasing its energies over a long period of time and while it erupting would cause us a very very bad time it wouldn't be comparabale to the potential extinction level events like the Deccan Traps and the Siberian eruptions.

melf said:
would it possible to "tap" the volanco, to let the pressure subside?
Click to expand...

I was wondeirng about that but the sheer scale of the thing is daunting.

Are there geothermal power stations in the area? I suppose it is a national park and that might be restricted but something might work in taking the oomph out of it.

That said the eruption will probably happen in the next 100,000 so we might have developed some cunning way of dealing with it by then. ;)
 
You would hope so.Whenever i hear talk of the possibility it is always asked 'within our life time' and if the probable answer is no then everyone seems to relax and say 'oh well not for us to deal with'. This is obviously passing the buck, but what exaclty could be done (for those in the imediate danger area) anyway.Something on that scale would need a whole continent evacuating!
 
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