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Chance Of Nuclear War Is Greater Than You Think

Presumably it was a mistake in setting up or tinkering with the early-warning drill for North Korean attack. That looks more unlikely today than for months. The secret talks in December led to a positively cordial (by NK standards) New Year's message from Kim Jong-Un and the internal NK media are now talking peninsular unity, which is not a topic even whispered since Kaesong shut down--you can be assured that they didn't come up with the idea themselves.

I'll be frank and say that despite my dislike of Trump it would appear that he has either played a blinder or made a breakthrough with pure dumb luck. I don't much care which, but this might turn out to be his first foreign policy success--too early to judge, of course.
 
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Yithian said:
Presumably it was a mistake in setting up or tinkering with the early-warning drill for North Korean attack. That looks more unlikely today than for months. The secret talks in December led to a positively cordial (by NK standards) New Year's message from Kim Jong-Un and the internal NK media are now talking peninsular unity, which is not a topic even whispered since Kaesong shut down--you can be assured that they didn't come up with the idea themselves.
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It looks like Trump's ultra-militaristic rhetoric have become an excuse for Un to move to the negotiating table with South Korea without appearing like a weakling. Now other nations are praising his restraint. Classic carrot and stick.

Yithian said:
I'll be frank and say that despite my dislike of Trump it would appear that he has either played a blinder or made a breakthrough with pure dumb luck. I don't much care which, but this might turn out to be his first foreign policy success--too early to judge, of course.
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The situation is far from resolved. NK hasn't agreed to anything involving its nuclear program. Having played a game of nuclear chicken, I don't think anyone should "count them before they've hatched"
 
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Ermintruder said:
Japan has had a Hawaiian-style national panic today in response to a broadcast national warning of a North Korea missile launch....another one that didn't happen, false alarm.
https://www.cnn.com/cnn/2018/01/16/asia/japan-false-missile-alarm-intl/index.html
This is all horribly counter-productive.
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On the contrary, I think a holiday for the overworked people of Japan while expecting nuclear annihilation is well earned and not counter-productive at all. A bit like Hiroshima day x2. Think of it as enforced interactive street theatre. YAY! :badge::dpoo::domo::cheer::fnord::nelly::mattack:
 
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Worrying news seeing as a dirty bomb is on the agenda of ISIS.

Deadly radioactive material has gone missing in Malaysia, prompting fears it could be used by terrorists to build a dirty bomb.

The iridium was part of an industrial radiography device which disappeared while being carried on a pickup truck. Two drivers were arrested but later released because of insufficient evidence, the New Straits Times reports.

  • READ MORE
Dirty bomb fears after Isis suspects monitored nuclear scientist
It is unknown exactly how much iridium was in the device but the UN atomic agency has warned any loss or theft of radioactive material could put it in the hands of militants who might try to build a crude nuclear device.

Such a weapon would combine radioactive material with conventional explosives to contaminate a wide area.

“It cannot fall into the wrong hands as the consequences can be deadly,” a source at Malaysia’s Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB) told the newspaper.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...bomb-material-missing-militants-a8499061.html
 
Transport of nuclear material is pretty lax these days, even in this country.
I once drove past a truck that had a nuclear flask on the back, clearly labelled as such.
There were no escorting vehicles or security men.
 
Mythopoeika said:
Transport of nuclear material is pretty lax these days, even in this country.
I once drove past a truck that had a nuclear flask on the back, clearly labelled as such.
There were no escorting vehicles or security men.
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Might have been empty, might have been really low grade stuff like discarded overalls and such.
 
ramonmercado said:
Worrying news seeing as a dirty bomb is on the agenda of ISIS.

Deadly radioactive material has gone missing in Malaysia, prompting fears it could be used by terrorists to build a dirty bomb.
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If you're troubled by excessive restful sleep at night, give this a read:

The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg (ISBN 9781608196708)

During the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear forces had security measures that we were assured made an unauthorized strike impossible. Turns out those measures would have been childishly simple to circumvent had anyone been so inclined. And the story that only the President can authorize a nuclear strike? 'Taint so. Authority is actually delegated far down the chain of command, to prevent decapitation of the U.S. response by a surprise first strike. Just how far down the delegation goes, no one is willing to say. My conclusion is that we were just damned lucky . . .

And for folks who like to think the danger has been lessened by the end of the Cold War. Both the U.S. and Russia are moving closer to a launch-on-warning policy, while relying more on automated systems to make the launch decision. What could possibly go wrong?

We're not out of the woods yet . . .
 
The leftover chicken might have caused food poisoning.

A British Royal Navy officer has been sent home from a submarine after he arrived at work to take charge of nuclear missiles while unfit for duty.

Lieutenant Commander Len Louw is facing an investigation after being sent back to Faslane in Scotland following the incident in the US.

Colleagues raised concerns when the weapons engineering officer arrived for work at HMS Vigilant while it was docked at the US navy's Kings Bay base in Camden County, Georgia for maintenance.

It is understood he had been drinking the night before and was carrying a bag of leftover grilled chicken from a barbecue for his lunch.


https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/1019/1172460-submarine-hms-vigilant/
 
Frasier Buddolph said:
If you're troubled by excessive restful sleep at night, give this a read:

The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner by Daniel Ellsberg (ISBN 9781608196708)

During the Cold War, the U.S. nuclear forces had security measures that we were assured made an unauthorized strike impossible. Turns out those measures would have been childishly simple to circumvent had anyone been so inclined. And the story that only the President can authorize a nuclear strike? 'Taint so. Authority is actually delegated far down the chain of command, to prevent decapitation of the U.S. response by a surprise first strike. Just how far down the delegation goes, no one is willing to say. My conclusion is that we were just damned lucky . . .

And for folks who like to think the danger has been lessened by the end of the Cold War. Both the U.S. and Russia are moving closer to a launch-on-warning policy, while relying more on automated systems to make the launch decision. What could possibly go wrong?

We're not out of the woods yet . . .
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More on Ellsberg's revelations including analysis/war games regarding the 1958 Taiwan crisis.

... "War games appear to show that the Chinese would win a conventional war over Taiwan and against the US," Mr Ellsberg said.

"That would immediately raise the question of the US initiating nuclear war against China to prevail in that situation, just as US decision-makers committed themselves to doing if it was necessary in 1958."

In the end, it was not necessary in 1958. But what material released by Mr Ellsberg shows, in sobering detail, is why American military leaders believed it might have been.

Short presentational grey line

That material amounts to dozens of redacted pages from a study of the crisis of 1958, when Communist Chinese forces began shelling islands controlled by Taiwan's nationalist government. Dated 1966, the study was written by Morton Halperin for the Rand Corporation, a government-funded think tank, before being declassified in 1975 with portions removed. In one censored passage, the study suggests senior military leaders, including Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Nathan Twining, "felt that the use of atomic weapons was inevitable".

Another section suggests Twinning indicated the US "would have no alternative but to conduct nuclear strikes deep into China" if it did not cease its attacks on Taiwan.

When Communist Chinese bombardments abated, none of this came to pass.

Still, highlighting this episode does serve an important objective, said Professor Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London. He told the BBC the risk of a military confrontation over Taiwan will become greater as China develops "the right kind of capabilities" in terms of weaponry. ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57341592
 
When the US considered using tactical nukes in Vietnam. The reasons why they didn't use them appear to be largely related to effectiveness.

DID THE U.S. CONSIDER USING NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN VIETNAM?​

The short answer is yes, though with important qualifications

Prior to 1968, the nearest the United States came to deploying nuclear weapons in Vietnam was in early 1954 when the French garrison at Dien Bien Phu was in danger of being overrun by an independence movement led by communist Viet Minh forces, the predecessor to the North Vietnamese Army. President Dwight D. Eisenhower and his advisers privately discussed the use of tactical nuclear weapons to save the fort. Eisenhower chose not to deploy nuclear weapons because their use would generate an international outcry and not guarantee the French garrison’s survival.

Between 1963 and 1965, the U.S. Army conducted a series of war games to examine the use of tactical nuclear weapons in land warfare. Though largely focused on a potential war against the Soviet Union in Europe, the games, code-named Oregon Trail, also looked at scenarios pitting the U.S. against communist China in Asia. The Army concluded that tactical nuclear weapons were highly effective against massed formations of enemy troops and vehicles but only marginally effective against dispersed or dug-in enemy formations, such as the United States faced in South Vietnam.

https://www.historynet.com/nuclear-weapons-vietnam/
 
A former military commander and current hardliner Russian MP has spoken openly on TV about the Kaliningrad situation triggering World War 3 and nuclear weapons usage. He predicts London will be the first target for Russian nukes.
Close ally calls on Vladimir Putin to ‘strike London first in WWIII’ on Russian media

A close Putin political ally and reservist general has called for London to be hit first in a World War Three.
MP Andrey Gurulyov, 54, a member of Russian parliament’s defence committee, advocated the Russian invasion of the NATO Baltic countries.

On state TV’s Channel 1 he said there was no other way to prevent the West blockading Russian exclave Kaliningrad.

Such a move would trigger NATO’s clause five and spark World War Three.

“We’ll destroy the entire group of enemy’s space satellites during the first air operation,” said Lt-Gen Gurulyov, a senior commander who now represents United Russia, the main pro-Putin political party.

“No-one will care if they are American or British, we would see them all as NATO.

“Second, we’ll mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100 per cent.

“Third, we certainly won’t start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin.

“The first to be hit will be London. ...
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FULL STORY: https://www.news.com.au/world/europ...a/news-story/b4025f801f9966ffa35e3595aaf79553
 
EnolaGaia said:
A former military commander and current hardliner Russian MP has spoken openly on TV about the Kaliningrad situation triggering World War 3 and nuclear weapons usage. He predicts London will be the first target for Russian nukes.

FULL STORY: https://www.news.com.au/world/europ...a/news-story/b4025f801f9966ffa35e3595aaf79553
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What a horrifying and ridiculous statement the Russians are making:

“It’s crystal clear that the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons.”
 
London? That's not where our nukes are!
The bulk of the Russian population is concentrated around a few cities. It would only require a handful of nukes for them to be toast, just as it would only require a few nukes to knock us out.
I don't know what they are trying to achieve, apart from inducing a state of terror.
 
Mythopoeika said:
London? That's not where our nukes are!
The bulk of the Russian population is concentrated around a few cities. It would only require a handful of nukes for them to be toast, just as it would only require a few nukes to knock us out.
I don't know what they are trying to achieve, apart from inducing a state of terror.
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That's what they are trying to achieve.
 
Hmm, what secret information have NYC emergency management agency obtained?

A NEW PUBLIC service announcement targeted at New Yorkers – on surviving a nuclear attack – has sparked worry and bafflement.

NYC residents are accustomed to warnings about all kinds of potential threats, including severe weather, public health, and mass shootings.

But the 90-second video on nuclear bombs, released this week by the city’s emergency management agency, has led to concern.

A narrator says: “So there’s been a nuclear attack. Don’t ask me how or why. Just know that a big one has hit.”

It gives advice to residents, telling them to stay indoors and wash off any radioactive dust or ash. ...

https://www.thejournal.ie/new-york-nuclear-attack-warning-5815701-Jul2022/
 
ramonmercado said:
Hmm, what secret information have NYC emergency management agency obtained?

A NEW PUBLIC service announcement targeted at New Yorkers – on surviving a nuclear attack – has sparked worry and bafflement.

NYC residents are accustomed to warnings about all kinds of potential threats, including severe weather, public health, and mass shootings.

But the 90-second video on nuclear bombs, released this week by the city’s emergency management agency, has led to concern.

A narrator says: “So there’s been a nuclear attack. Don’t ask me how or why. Just know that a big one has hit.”

It gives advice to residents, telling them to stay indoors and wash off any radioactive dust or ash. ...

https://www.thejournal.ie/new-york-nuclear-attack-warning-5815701-Jul2022/
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Living just a few miles from NYC is becoming a nightmare, we've been hearing about this for days.
The 1993 bombing was one thing, the Twin Towers September 2001 was another, and now this, which no one knows what to make of it.
Mr. R says if this happens, the oceans will be affected big time, along with this entire area.
 
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If a nuclear war starts, nobody will survive, whether New Yorker, Londoner or Parisian, we'll all get blast and roasted. With over 12 000 nuke heads in circulation worldwide, there will be plenty of ammo for everybody to enjoy the ride to hell, alas ! As long as crazy dictators rule nuclear countries, we'll be in danger.
 
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As for nuclear attacks, can't worry about it, we'd be gone in the blink of an eye. I don't believe it, but the USA is in need of strong leadership.
 
Mythopoeika said:
London? That's not where our nukes are!
The bulk of the Russian population is concentrated around a few cities. It would only require a handful of nukes for them to be toast, just as it would only require a few nukes to knock us out.
I don't know what they are trying to achieve, apart from inducing a state of terror.
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I'm sure that is the point, induce terror, a very good terrorist tactic without using any weapons except words.
 
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