Frederick Valentich Disappearance (Australia; 1978)

[AngelAlice]

According to Planetcalc, sunset local time at Melbourne (just north of the locus) was 1942 hrs.

Wikipedia gives Valentich’s time of disappearance as 1912 AEST.

maximus otter

ok - if sunset was at 7.42pm and Valentich "disappeared" at 7.20pm then we know it wasn't nighttime or even twilight - the sun was still above the horizon and it was basically pretty broad daylight.

Surely that's one factor we can regard as definite?

Whatever it was, it happened with the sun 22 minutes above the horizon, which itself seems to rule out several hypotheses right there.

 

[BS3]

ok - if sunset was at 7.42pm and Valentich "disappeared" at 7.20pm then we know it wasn't nighttime or even twilight - the sun was still above the horizon and it was basically pretty broad daylight.

Surely that's one factor we can regard as definite?

Whatever it was, it happened with the sun 22 minutes above the horizon, which itself seems to rule out several hypotheses right there.

From the DoT papers sunset was at more like 18.42 local time (18.50 IIRC). 'End of daylight' was at about 19.20, a few minutes after Valentich's disappearance.

 

[AngelAlice]

From the DoT papers sunset was at more like 18.42 local time (18.50 IIRC). 'End of daylight' was at about 19.20, a few minutes after Valentich's disappearance.

Well this is weird because according to this site sunset on October 21 in Melbourne is, as Maximus says, 19.42!

I wonder if summer/winter time transition is creating confusion?

 

[BS3]

Well this is weird because according to this site sunset on October 21 in Melbourne is, as Maximus says, 19.42!

I wonder if summer/winter time transition is creating confusion?

This is probably what is going on. The Manifold photograph was taken at sunset, yet was taken about 30 minutes before Valentich actually got to Cape Otway.

I think the overall evidence is that by about 19.06 when the 'incident' began it was twilight - as Richard Haines says in his paper, a quite dark sky to the east but still with some sunset colouration to the west (possibly a little more extended at altitude).

 

[AngelAlice]

This is probably what is going on. The Manifold photograph was taken at sunset, yet was taken about 30 minutes before Valentich actually got to Cape Otway.

I think the overall evidence is that by about 19.06 when the 'incident' began it was twilight - as Richard Haines says in his paper, a quite dark sky to the east but still with some sunset colouration to the west (possibly a little more extended at altitude).

I'm not sure about that.

All meteorological websites are clear that sunset on October 21 in Melbourne is ~ 19.42. Which presumably means at 19.20 the sun would be on the horizon but still above it.

And George Simpson, alleged witness to Valentich flying past on the fateful night, is very clear it was NOT dark at the time.

In the below video (4:35) he says

"...a lot of people make the mistake of saying it was his first night flight...had he reached his destination yes it would have been his first night flight coming back but it was still daylight when he was going down..."​

ps - looks like clocks go forward around Oct 1 in Australia

 

[BS3]

I'm not sure about that.

All meteorological websites are clear that sunset on October 21 in Melbourne is ~ 19.42. Which presumably means at 19.20 the sun would be on the horizon but still above it.

And George Simpson, alleged witness to Valentich flying past on the fateful night, is very clear it was NOT dark at the time.

In the below video (4:35) he says

"...a lot of people make the mistake of saying it was his first night flight...had he reached his destination yes it would have been his first night flight coming back but it was still daylight when he was going down..."​

The DoT's own investigation is absolutely clear on this:

Sunset at Cape Otway was at 08.50 (ie 18.50)
Last light at Cape Otway was at 09.21

Valentich arrived at Cape Otway at about GMT 09.00, so ten minutes after sunset. I can only assume the meteorological websites are not taking account of local daylight saving time or something...

When Simpson talks about the outward leg of the flight being in 'daylight', he's actually suggesting that it was in twilight. He elsewhere claims there is a very 'long twilight' locally, saying that because of this Valentich didn't need the King Island airfield lights on at his projected arrival time of 19.30 local time or thereabouts (not sure this is correct: we know that the airfield lights were turned on anyway at about then so another aircraft could depart).

I guess the problem is that as usual people tend to favour the interpretation of the conditions that supports their preferred hypothesis - Simpson describes it as 'daylight', because he doesn't support the idea Valentich was disoriented. Sheaffer by contrast talks about "the situation Valentich found himself in when darkness fell on that moonless night", which makes it sound like it was fully dark - partly because he thinks Valentich was disoriented.

As is often the case the truth may be somewhere in the middle - it was after sunset and night was falling, but it wasn't completely dark.

 

[BS3]

Daylight saving time in Victoria started on 29 October 1978.

 

[BS3]

Going back to this video;

If all the poster has said is correct, this is the only public source I'm aware of that includes any of the recording of the conversation with Melbourne Flight Service - ie the 'evidence' at the heart of this case- other than the 'metallic noise' bit. All the other versions floating around are from later reconstructions.

The DoT gave Valentich Sr a copy of the tape on the understanding that this wasn't normal procedure and it wouldn't be appropriate to make the tape public. Further (hence second- or third- generation) copies found their way to the late Paul Norman of VUFORS and Richard Haines. Haines may still have his copy, but the audio above is taken from a tape recording of a presentation he gave. So it's really a recording of Haines' third generation copy being played on a tape recorder - not ideal. The bits available above don't really tell us much other than that as far as I can hear, Valentich's tone of voice was indeed fairly matter-of-fact as the DoT stated.

One of the big talking points around the 'tape' over the years has been the idea that bits were edited out before the DoT released it to Valentich. This particularly centres around things like the part a couple of minutes in transcribed "it's not an aircraft it's a [open microphone for 2 seconds]", with the implication being that much of Valentich's description of the object, craft, secret weapon or whatever was removed. However Haines, who has listened to the best version of the tape available, has explicitly said that there's no evidence of this happening.

 

[AngelAlice]

Daylight saving time in Victoria started on 29 October 1978.

Yes you're correct! So, it was basically dark when he was heading out.

I don't know if this vid has been shared before, but it's a very thorough and fair in depth look at the Valentich case.

Simpson is very economical with the truth. This vid gives a much clearer and factual picture of a not very smart kid, struggling and failing to pass his commercial pilot exams, lyibg to his instructor and claiming to have passed and altogether being a little odd and off-centre.

He was also very interested in the subject of UFOs - as was his mother. In fact they claimed to have witnessed one together.

His conduct on the day he disappeared is also a little odd. He told different stories to different people about his reason for flying to the island. None of the stories seem to have been true.

Of course this doesn't automatically mean there's nothing strange about his disappearance - there is a great deal that seems strange or might be strange. But it does imo increase the possibility he was responsible for whatever happened to some degree, either deliberately or not.

 

[BS3]

His conduct on the day he disappeared is also a little odd. He told different stories to different people about his reason for flying to the island. None of the stories seem to have been true.

In fairness there is a possible partial explanation in the DoT investigation. I'm not sure whether flying seafood from King Island was a regular thing, but one of the people interviewed commented that Southern Air Services (the Cessna's owner) didn't like people doing this and that Valentich's cover story about 'passengers' might have been for this reason.

Of course this doesn't explain why Valentich didn't actually place an order for crayfish. You might say this was an oversight, but he'd apparently brought back a load of them for his mess on a previous occasion so should have known what he was doing. More significant to me perhaps is the fact he didn't ask about airfield lighting, which he would certainly have needed to land.

 

[Erinaceus]

As an aside, today is the anniversary of the disappearance of Moncrieff and Hood while attempting a flight from Australia to New Zealand in 1928. Perhaps the aliens were starting their collection.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moncrieff_and_Hood_disappearance

 

[Ronnie Jersey]

This October 2023 marks the 45th Anniversary of Frederick Valentich's disappearance -
And are they any updates on the investigation?

 

[charliebrown]

I wish there could be new information.

I am curious that Frederick struggled to get his license, was breaking rules near the Sydney Airport, and never told Kings Island his flight plan

Frederick could have flown anywhere with no flight plan.