The Moscow Concert Hall Attack

[blessmycottonsocks]

With the terrible death toll from the attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow having reached 133 and still likely to rise, some interesting facts have emerged today.

The American embassy in Moscow had warned the Russian authorities some two weeks ago of intelligence that an attack by Islamic fundamentalists at a major event in Moscow was imminent. The Americans even specified concert hall, theatre or shopping mall as likely targets.

And yet, security at the huge Crocus City venue did not appear to have been beefed up at all and, after concertgoers alerted the security services about the attack, the response from police and ambulances was extremely slow.

Despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility, Putin, in a public address today, seems keen to ignore his state's failure to act on intelligence received and appears desperate to divert the blame onto Ukraine, saying the ISIS terrorists (4 of whom have allegedly already been detained) were heading towards the Ukrainian border.

A lot of issues don't seem to add up here.

 

[Mythopoeika]

With the terrible death toll from the attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow having reached 133 and still likely to rise, some interesting facts have emerged today.

The American embassy in Moscow had warned the Russian authorities some two weeks ago of intelligence that an attack by Islamic fundamentalists at a major event in Moscow was imminent. The Americans even specified concert hall, theatre or shopping mall as likely targets.

And yet, security at the huge Crocus City venue did not appear to have been beefed up at all and, after concertgoers alerted the security services about the attack, the response from police and ambulances was extremely slow.

Despite the Islamic State claiming responsibility, Putin, in a public address today, seems keen to ignore his state's failure to act on intelligence received and appears desperate to divert the blame onto Ukraine, saying the ISIS terrorists (4 of whom have allegedly already been detained) were heading towards the Ukrainian border.

A lot of issues don't seem to add up here.

It's a bit of a mystery, why Islamic State is attacking Russia in this manner.
But, I guess they're attacking everybody.

 

[Paul_Exeter]

The excellent 'Red Storm Rising' WW3 novel by Tom Clancy begins with Chechen islamic fundamentalists attacking Russian oil refineries and I believe this is based in fact:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_in_Russia

 

[Spookdaddy]

It's a bit of a mystery, why Islamic State is attacking Russia in this manner.
But, I guess they're attacking everybody.

Russia has a relatively very large Muslim population, but - unlike the rest of Europe - this is largely the result of conquest, rather than immigration. Many of these people consider themselves indigenous, and their culture, religion, and homeland distinct from Russia. There are - I think - several separatist movements scattered around the regions.

To be honest, I find it kind of surprising there aren't more attacks like this. But then - if this event actually is exactly as it is being presented - I suspect the apparent effectiveness of the attack may have something to do with the authorities dropping the ball while their attention is very much focused elsewhere.

 

[Paul_Exeter]

Very odd narrative now emerging of these guys getting caught and having being paid to carry out this attack...?

(Source: mail online)

 

[Stormkhan]

My first thought is that this awful outrage is being exploited by Putin - or at least they're thinking about how they can exploit it. On the back of his recent landslide election victory*, this is a very ... useful incident.

* When you have no opponents and you control the 'game' then you have no victory.

 

[Mythopoeika]

Very odd narrative now emerging of these guys getting caught and having being paid to carry out this attack...?

(Source: mail online)

Let me guess... they'll try to pin it on the CIA or NSA.

 

[Spookdaddy]

Very odd narrative now emerging of these guys getting caught and having being paid to carry out this attack...?

(Source: mail online)

After barely 24 hours I'm not sure that I'd bet on anyone having access to enough reliable information to create an accurate narrative - even if that information was coming from a much less controlled environment than Russia is just now.

 

[Tempest63]

The attack may be the excuse the Яussians need to attack Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. I am told by someone who is professionally involved in the current situation that the Яussians are desperate to close that land bridge above Belarus.

If the German intelligence is correct and Яussia are preparing to launch an attack on a NATO country within two years, this is where it will take place. Either there or against Finland.

There is an interesting article on Wiki as to whether there has ever been an agreement between NATO and Яussia on an Eastwards NATO expansion?

Whether there was or there wasn’t I’m sure the inhabitants of those countries who have recently joined NATO are glad they are in the club with a Sociapath such as Putin in charge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contr...ing_the_legitimacy_of_eastward_NATO_expansion

 

[Krepostnoi]

It's a bit of a mystery, why Islamic State is attacking Russia in this manner.
But, I guess they're attacking everybody.

Shouldn't be that much of a surprise: Russia has been heavily involved in propping up the Syrian regime against the latter's local enemies, including IS. There is also lingering deep resentment at the brutal way in which the second Chechen War was prosecuted.

(One of the unintended but fairly predictable outcomes was the way in which the fairly secular - just like elsewhere in the USSR, pork and vodka consumption was typical - lifestyles in Soviet-era Chechnya transformed into hardline fundamentalist interpretations of Islam, as a way of differentiation from the Orthodox Christian identity ascribed to the other side.)

None of which excuses the taking of civilian lives, whatever may be happening elsewhere.

 

[charliebrown]

From TV news opinion, Russia occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 killing 1,000,000 civilians and Russia and ISIS losing a combined total 125,000 soldiers.

A lot of people in Afghanistan still angry at Russia.

Usually ISIS are fanatical so surrendering to the Russian Police is mysterious.

The U.S. warning to Russia about the attack is mysterious.

 

[kesavaross]

From TV news opinion, Russia occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 killing 1,000,000 civilians and Russia and ISIS losing a combined total 125,000 soldiers.

A lot of people in Afghanistan still angry at Russia.

Usually ISIS are fanatical so surrendering to the Russian Police is mysterious.

The U.S. warning to Russia about the attack is mysterious.

As far as I'm aware the warning wasn't to the Russian authorities, it was from the American Embassy to Americans in Russia to stay out of concert halls, theatres, etc, but no reason was given.

 

[Spookdaddy]

...The U.S. warning to Russia about the attack is mysterious.

Surprisingly, it's not actually that mysterious.

The US government still operates a 'Duty to Warn' directive which applies even if the country being warned is a theoretical enemy - by that, I mean an ideological adversary, but one with which no official state of war with the US exists.

It was being reported back in January that the US, possibly through a private backchannel, warned - of all people - the Iranian authorities about the potential for the ISIS attack on the anniversary commemorations of Qasem Soleimani's funeral in Tehran.

Kind of ironic, given that Soleimani had been killed by a targeted US drone strike in Iraq four years earlier.

But then, although the 'Duty to Warn' directive theoretically applies to individuals as well as to groups, I get the feeling that it is possibly more assiduously applied when there is the potential for large scale civilian casualties.

Edit: Copy of Intelligence Community Directive 191 - Duty to Warn, here. (Don't worry - it's unclassified):

...Duty to Warn means a requirement to warn U.S. and non-U.S. persons of impending threats of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping...

...An IC element that collects or acquires credible and specific information indicating an impending threat of intentional killing, serious bodily injury, or kidnapping directed at a person or group of people (hereafter referred to as intended victim) shall have a duty to warn the
intended victim or those responsible for protecting the intended victim, as appropriate. This includes threats where the target is an institution, place of business, structure, or location. The term intended victim includes both U.S. persons, as defined in EO 12333, Section 3.S(k), and non-U.S. persons...

 

[Spookdaddy]

From TV news opinion, Russia occupied Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 killing 1,000,000 civilians and Russia and ISIS losing a combined total 125,000 soldiers...

ISIS didn't exist at that point - I think they must mean the Afghan mujahideen. (The Taliban themselves only came to prominence later.)

 

[kesavaross]

Russia is assisting Assad in Syria who are still at war and one objective of Assad is the destroy IS or ISIS, I'm not sure which.

 

[Ascalon]

Agreed, there are distinct elements of this that do not add up.
And Putin's known history of false flag operations when it suits his purpose, such as the aprtment bombings that he pinned on the Chechens, it may well be that he used the credible warning of an immenent attack to craft his own incident that he could attribute as he pleased.

Very suspect from a suspicious operator.

 

[kesavaross]

Agreed, there are distinct elements of this that do not add up.
And Putin's known history of false flag operations when it suits his purpose, such as the aprtment bombings that he pinned on the Chechens, it may well be that he used the credible warning of an immenent attack to craft his own incident that he could attribute as he pleased.

Very suspect from a suspicious operator.

Russia says the same about incidents in the west.

 

[Krepostnoi]

Russia says the same about incidents in the west.

Russia propagates many different and often contradictory accounts simultaneously as a deliberate strategy to conceal whatever the truth might be amidst a firehose of bullshit. The Kremlin troll factories are real, and their existence has been credibly established.

None of the above discounts the possibility, nay, likelihood that other states are likewise diligently engaged in similar misdirection. There's been a minor example these past few days emanating from the UK regarding the royal family. But the Russians are particularly profligate with the taps.

 

[brownmane]

It's a bit of a mystery, why Islamic State is attacking Russia in this manner.
But, I guess they're attacking everybody.

To answer some of the earlier questions:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/moscow-russia-isis-attack-concert-hall-arrests-1.7153454

From the above article:

Putin, who extended his grip on Russia for another six years in this week's presidential vote after a sweeping crackdown on dissent, had publicly denounced the Western warnings of a potential terrorist attack as an attempt to intimidate Russians...

The group, which operates mainly in Syria and Iraq but also in Afghanistan and Africa, also has claimed several attacks in Russia's volatile Caucasus and other regions in the past years. It recruited fighters from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union...

Putin changed the course of the Syrian civil war by intervening in 2015, supporting President Bashar al-Assad against the opposition and Islamic State.

ISIS-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticizing Putin in its propaganda," said Colin Clarke of the Soufan Center, a New York-based research group.

 

[ramonmercado]

The attack may be the excuse the Яussians need to attack Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania. I am told by someone who is professionally involved in the current situation that the Яussians are desperate to close that land bridge above Belarus.

If the German intelligence is correct and Яussia are preparing to launch an attack on a NATO country within two years, this is where it will take place. Either there or against Finland.

There is an interesting article on Wiki as to whether there has ever been an agreement between NATO and Яussia on an Eastwards NATO expansion?

Whether there was or there wasn’t I’m sure the inhabitants of those countries who have recently joined NATO are glad they are in the club with a Sociapath such as Putin in charge.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contr...ing_the_legitimacy_of_eastward_NATO_expansion

View attachment 74994

If they can't win in Ukraine are they really likely to attack any of the Baltic States? They're overstretched as it is.

 

[Analogue Boy]

The chances of being attacked by a duck are slim but never impossible.
I wouldn’t rule anything out.

 

[Krepostnoi]

The chances of being attacked by a duck are slim but never impossible.
I wouldn’t rule anything out.

An easily underestimated adversary. You hear the warning cry, and your instinctive reaction merely brings your face closer to the danger.

 

[ramonmercado]

The chances of being attacked by a duck are slim but never impossible.
I wouldn’t rule anything out.

Indeed, But if Russia can't beat the Ukrainian Armed Forces then are they likely to attack a NATO country and face the full military might of NATO?

 

[Xanatic*]

Moldova seems a more likely target. They have support in Transnistria and it would give them another front against Ukraine.

 

[charliebrown]

I could be wrong but Putin’s official statement did not mention ISIS but Putin blamed the U.S. and the Ukraine.

 

[Stormkhan]

If they can't win in Ukraine are they really likely to attack any of the Baltic States? They're overstretched as it is.

Thing is, you can't rely on reason being used by someone as volatile as Putin.
Ukraine's unexplained successful resistance is being put down to corruption in the Russian military, with unfounded confidence and misappropriated funding by the higher echelons. Putin was confident of success because he'd been misled. The 'misleaders' didn't expect to have to mobilise so much materiel but what Putin demands, Putin gets ...
However, the latest statement from Moscow, that the perpetrators were going to flee to Ukraine and had been given a 'window' through to Ukraine, cannot indicate future actions. They've got a very public scapegoat in Ukraine, which allows Putin to maintain his stance of complete absorption of Ukraine, whatever the cost to Russian lives.

 

[Spookdaddy]

It's worth noting that a lot of rhetoric coming out of Russia is at least as much for home consumption as it is a useful indicator of actual policy.

I'm almost through re-reading Ryszard Kapuściński's, Imperium - which is in essence part travelogue, and part biography of the author's relationship with Russia. It covers the years 1939-1967 and 1989-1993, but it's amazing how much the author writes in regard to the Russian psyche, and how politics and leadership work in the country, seems totally applicable now - in general, in the context of the conflict with Ukraine, and in the context of public statements after the Crocus City Hall attack.

(Actually @Krepostnoi I've been meaning to ask - if you've read the book - what you think of it, having actual experience of the country. I find it absolutely fascinating, but then I have no experiential references to use as context.)

Russia has a relatively very large Muslim population, but - unlike the rest of Europe - this is largely the result of conquest, rather than immigration. Many of these people consider themselves indigenous, and their culture, religion, and homeland distinct from Russia. There are - I think - several separatist movements scattered around the regions...

Further to the above, I found a list of separatist movements in Russia - if the list is anything to go by, turns out 'several' was a considerable underestimation on my part (36 are listed).

I dare say there are very varying degrees of militancy, and obviously, not all relate to majority Muslim regions (although many do). This again, brings to mind Imperium and Kapuściński - who appears to suggest that much of what drives the style of Russian leadership and government that never seems to change that much in essence, whatever the political situation at the time, is a kind of paranoia that any change in momentum will result in the whole thing falling apart. Again, I don't know enough to know if that's a fair assessment, but it does seem to make a kind of sense.

See here for - MAJOR SECESSIONIST MOVEMENTS IN RUSSIA

I was quite surprised to see that even Kaliningrad has a separatist movement, although - given the history - I probably shouldn't be. Strikes me that having an enclave within an exclave would be somewhat tortuous politically speaking - but maybe this, in a relatively concentrated way, illustrates the sheer geo-political complexity of the Russia/rest of the world relationship.

 

[blessmycottonsocks]

the latest statement from Moscow, that the perpetrators were going to flee to Ukraine and had been given a 'window' through to Ukraine,

Which, surely everyone outside of Russia, knows is utter bullshit?
It would be absolutely illogical for the attackers to flee towards an active war zone, where they would likely be targeted by both sides, and the front line between Russia and Ukraine has become one of the most mined areas on Earth.
Putin cannot dare admit that he ignored the warnings given by the US that an ISIS attack was imminent in Moscow and he is employing the time-honoured "Goebbels principle" of telling a big lie and sticking to it, then repeating it frequently until it becomes the "truth".

 

[RaM]

Who knows, I have a suspicion that Russia was behind the Palestinian attack on Israel,
to give the west something else to take their minds of the Ukraine.

 

[Xanatic*]

It makes sense for the terrorists to head for Ukraine if they were in cahoots, which I imagine is what Putin wants to imply.