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The Moscow Concert Hall Attack

Xanatic* said:
It makes sense for the terrorists to head for Ukraine if they were in cahoots, which I imagine is what Putin wants to imply.
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But the Russian side of the border is heavily defended by Russian troops which makes it illogical to drive straight into a situation where they are sure to be caught.
 
This BBC article summarises things very well.

The US warned its own citizens on 7th March that extremists had imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow and specifically mentioned concerts.
The US government also shared this information directly with the Russian authorities in accordance with its long-standing 'duty to warn' policy.
Putin though publicly dismissed the warnings as "provocative statements from the West" and that the warnings "resemble outright blackmail and the intention to intimidate and destabilise our society".
Putin got this very wrong and is now spouting outrageous propaganda to distract from the fact that he dropped the ball and, consequently, a lot of people are dead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68646375
 
blessmycottonsocks said:
...Putin got this very wrong and is now spouting outrageous propaganda to distract from the fact that he dropped the ball and, consequently, a lot of people are dead.
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Putin's likely to have been suspicious of the timing - major disruption of public events so close to the supposed election would not be a good look for a man who wants to give the impression of running a steady ship; disruption in regard to Ukraine can be packaged under the banner of a great patriotic 'special military operation' - but admitting to major threats from entirely different directions might give the impression that the authorities are losing control. And after all, a false warning under the guise of the Duty to Warn directive would be an utterly risk free and cost-effective psyop, requiring virtually nothing in the way of human resources or logistical outlay.

But, clearly, he misread the situation. Again.

Is it possible that the man once portrayed in the West, as well as at home, as a wily and infallible grandmaster might just have been playing draughts, rather than chess, all along?
 
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blessmycottonsocks said:
The US warned its own citizens on 7th March that extremists had imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow and specifically mentioned concerts.
The US government also shared this information directly with the Russian authorities in accordance with its long-standing 'duty to warn' policy.
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*grits teeth* To be fair to Putin, with no specific date or even range of dates, a practical response to this would have virtually closed down Moscow.

Imagine if the Russians warned us that Islamic terrorists were likely to attack a "large gathering, probably a concert" in London, "soon." The response might well have caused more disruption than an actual attack.

This is precisely the tactic used by the IRA: Give a nebulous warning of a bomb, and watch the chaos unfold. Then, if despite the authorities' best efforts a bomb detonates causing casualties, the terrorists can intone piously, "Well we tried to warn you..."

Win/win for the criminals.

maximus otter
 
They still could have improved security at venues (they are at war after all)

Mmmm... I'm very wondering if this incident, whatever its truth, will be used by Putin to escalate the war.
 
The talking heads on TV news claim that Putin will waste no time in blaming Ukraine for the concert attack.

An old saying is that never waste a crisis and make it to your advantage.
 
pandacracker said:
They still could have improved security at venues (they are at war after all)

Mmmm... I'm very wondering if this incident, whatever its truth, will be used by Putin to escalate the war.
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lt wouldn’t surprise me if it’s revealed that the terrorists had dickers out surveilling numerous venues. As soon as one of them spotted a security guard sneaking off for a fag, they call in the murderers.

maximus otter
 
It may be opportunistic of Putin to use this attack as an excuse to escalate things in the Ukraine. Worryingly, it has been reported here in Sweden that Ukraine has now been labelled a "terrorist state" and that Kiev must now be held acocuntable and punished. I saw that Kiev was hit by missiles today.

And the "special military operation" is now officially a "war".
Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/...slage?inlagg=9ef6d39c8424d5571f32baa3420f3f79
 
Ringo said:
It may be opportunistic of Putin to use this attack as an excuse to escalate things in the Ukraine. Worryingly, it has been reported here in Sweden that Ukraine has now been labelled a "terrorist state" and that Kiev must now be held acocuntable and punished. I saw that Kiev was hit by missiles today.

And the "special military operation" is now officially a "war".
Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/...slage?inlagg=9ef6d39c8424d5571f32baa3420f3f79
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On a news debate at 20:00 last night, there was talk of an inevitable slide towards World War III. This being an all-out conflict between the Free World (basically the West and its allies) and the totalitarian world (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran and a handful of other islamic and African states).
This talk of normalising war is deeply disturbing.
 
The moderators would appreciate it if we could constrain the scope of this conversation--as far as possible--to the narrow subject of conspiracy around these attacks.

Not broad 'terrorism' and not 'global politics'.

Thank you.
 
And while 'injuries being sustained while resisting arrest' can cover a multitude of ... sins, they look pretty much 'subdued'.
I mean, some reports say the bandage on the side of one 'suspects' head covers an ear that 'was lost during arrest'.
Considering the outrage committed (undeniably horrific), you might expect some 'rough justice', but they're not suspects. They are dead men walking, they know it, the public know it (and demand it) and I'm sure - relating to a conspiracy - they'll now be so subdued and malleable that they'll admit to anything ... right up until their execution.
 
One thing that puzzles me. Whenever members of ISIS commit an atrocity they always wear suicide vests and then blow themselves up. So why didn't they do that on this occasion?
 
Stormkhan said:
And while 'injuries being sustained while resisting arrest' can cover a multitude of ... sins, they look pretty much 'subdued'.
I mean, some reports say the bandage on the side of one 'suspects' head covers an ear that 'was lost during arrest'.
Considering the outrage committed (undeniably horrific), you might expect some 'rough justice', but they're not suspects. They are dead men walking, they know it, the public know it (and demand it) and I'm sure - relating to a conspiracy - they'll now be so subdued and malleable that they'll admit to anything ... right up until their execution.
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There is reputedly video of Russian soldiers cutting the man’s ear off & feeding it to him, & torturing others with electric shocks. I haven’t looked for it though.
 
hunck said:
There is reputedly video of Russian soldiers cutting the man’s ear off & feeding it to him, & torturing others with electric shocks. I haven’t looked for it though.
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The official line is the suspects ear was 'lost' while resisting arrest.
Take that as you will.
 
Spookdaddy said:
I'm almost through re-reading Ryszard Kapuściński's, Imperium - which is in essence part travelogue, and part biography of the author's relationship with Russia. It covers the years 1939-1967 and 1989-1993, but it's amazing how much the author writes in regard to the Russian psyche, and how politics and leadership work in the country, seems totally applicable now - in general, in the context of the conflict with Ukraine, and in the context of public statements after the Crocus City Hall attack.

(Actually @Krepostnoi I've been meaning to ask - if you've read the book - what you think of it, having actual experience of the country. I find it absolutely fascinating, but then I have no experiential references to use as context.)
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Sorry, I've been slow to respond to this, although the quick answer is I haven't read it. Sounds like an interesting read, and I certainly think that there has been a lot of continuity in Russia's corridors of power in terms of the way things are actuallly done as opposed to the labels attached. This can arguably be traced not only in the transition from monarchy to Bolshevism and subsequent Communist Party rule, but also in the post-Communist (Party) era, the failed experiment in liberalisation in the 90s notwithstanding.

But I have to admit that I am behind the loop in terms of knowledge and experience. I had a really dispiriting time in St Petersburg in 2017, which effectively ended my love affair with the country. Subsequent events have merely reinforced that sense of withdrawal. So whatever level of expertise I may once have been able to lay claim to, I can no longer describe it as current. And I think I'm ok with that, despite my having put in about 40 years of effort prior to that point. I remember making this post back in 2016 - the contrast is stark.
 
kesavaross said:
As far as I understand it, it's because dead men can't speak.
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Which makes the rapid arrest of the 4 suspects all the more suspicious.
Hard to believe the heavily armed attackers would allow themselves to be captured without a shoot-out.
The Charlie Hébdo terrorists escaped Paris and were on the run for a while, before being killed in a shoot-out.
 
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Sunday France issued the highest alert for ISIS-K activity in France and France has warned other European countries.

The American Embassy in France has issued a ISIS-K warning for all Americans in Paris to be extra careful.

Afghanistan has protected ISIS-K encouraging ISIS-K to cause complete mayhem in Europe.
 
Krepostnoi said:
Sorry, I've been slow to respond to this, although the quick answer is I haven't read it. Sounds like an interesting read, and I certainly think that there has been a lot of continuity in Russia's corridors of power in terms of the way things are actuallly done as opposed to the labels attached. This can arguably be traced not only in the transition from monarchy to Bolshevism and subsequent Communist Party rule, but also in the post-Communist (Party) era, the failed experiment in liberalisation in the 90s notwithstanding.

But I have to admit that I am behind the loop in terms of knowledge and experience. I had a really dispiriting time in St Petersburg in 2017, which effectively ended my love affair with the country. Subsequent events have merely reinforced that sense of withdrawal. So whatever level of expertise I may once have been able to lay claim to, I can no longer describe it as current. And I think I'm ok with that, despite my having put in about 40 years of effort prior to that point. I remember making this post back in 2016 - the contrast is stark.
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I had a fair bit to do with Russia around 2000 - we had a team of programmers in St Petersburg for a while, and I visited several times. Moscow as well. St Pete's in particular was quite enjoyable and fairly Westernised then.

It's a shame to hear things have deteriorated since.
 
The town or the country hasn't deteriorated, Cochise - the ... administration has. I say this in fairness to Russia, the country and the people. I willingly avoid politics (as much as I can) but this outrage, at this time in this year, really will skirt on politics.
In my very humble opinion, in order to avoid political discussion - of any level - Mods should 'observe' this thread very carefully. There's a discussion of nutty conspiracy theories (Fortean) and suggestions, suppositions, and observations on a very real, and horrific mass killing.
If someone is insensitive or insane enough to posit "It was done by aliens!" then ... well ... fair game. But these days, all bets are off when it comes to the actions of the political leaders of the world especially when they run a totalitarian regime and can control the narrative*.

* A case in point: Turkmenistan. They may be ruled by an utter fruit-loop and worthy of derision, but he has impact on the 'stage' nevertheless.
 
The Director of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov made some Extremely Bold Claims today about Friday’s Terrorist Attack in Moscow while also expressing a some Very Dangerous Rhetoric; this includes him stating that while the Attack was conducted by ISIS using “Radical Islamists” they were Facilitated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) as well as the United States and U.K, with him further stating that the Attack will require Retaliatory Action against Ukraine which may include the possible Assassination of Ukrainian Spy Chief, Kyrylo Budanov and other High-Ranking Intelligence Leadership.

From Twitter: OSINTdefender @sentdefender

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And this one is weird. THere are many such factoids. I don't think it means anything, but we see the birth of conspiracy theories live!

BroSINT 69™ @osint_69 Video from the terrorist attack in Moscow on Friday. What is that guy in blue doing? Why did he push that woman? Why is that woman now hiding down when everyone is trying to evacuate the theater?

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Mykhaïlo Golub @golub
Russians begin to suspect that the Crocus massacre was an inside job by the Russian secret service.

It's about the "men in blue"

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Sparky @1980_sparky
I dunno, maybe they just hiding and then hitting the phone to find out WTF is going on.
I mean that's less interesting than all people in blue are FSB, I get it.
But, people behaving weird in an extreme situation to me does not automatically = grassy knoll territory.

Chrissi @chilichrissy
Everybody else starts moving to get out. He pushes this woman and sit's down quite chilled making a bit videos. Having a couple of times eye contact with an other not stressed blue man. Behavior not normal when panic kicks in.
The other one in the top row also not stressed at all

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Vid at link.

Moscow concert attack: Russian papers blame West​

Russia's Wednesday newspapers reflect Moscow’s continuing attempts to connect Ukraine and the West to the attack on the Crocus City concert hall.

That is despite the Islamic State group saying it was behind the mass shooting.

The BBC’s Russia editor Steve Rosenberg takes a look at what the papers are saying and showing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68674588
 
uair01 said:
And this one is weird. THere are many such factoids. I don't think it means anything, but we see the birth of conspiracy theories live!...
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I think the suggestion of weirdness rests on an assumption that in a stampede situation everyone simply joins in the stampede - I suspect that this is not the case (in fact, not joining the crush may well end up saving your life). It also presupposes that in the initial moments of such a movement en masse, everyone within the mass knows what type of threat the movement is a response to, what direction it's coming from, and what the best way to counter it is. And again, I think this ignores the complexities involved.

In all honesty, to me, they just look like people who maybe don't know what the fuck is going on - which is probably kind of reasonable under the circumstances.

And from the information available in those images, the 'eye contact' thing seems to me to be really pushing it. I'm also not sure I actually see him actively 'pushing' the women.
 
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