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U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

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Hmmmmm

Interesting deal for the US, turn over (to be killed) all the insurgents they've publicly supported in return for promises that
Iran will stop being naughty.

So after the insurgency has been wiped out what prevents Iran from then backing out of the rest of the deal?

Might be a point to start talking at but the turn over of the insurgents would be a no go.
 
Hanslune said:
Hmmmmm

Interesting deal for the US, turn over (to be killed) all the insurgents they've publicly supported in return for promises that
Iran will stop being naughty.

So after the insurgency has been wiped out what prevents Iran from then backing out of the rest of the deal?

Might be a point to start talking at but the turn over of the insurgents would be a no go.

they weren't publicly supporting the insurgents at that point, though. iirc, in '97 they were added to the list of terrorist organisations. iran could renege on the deal of course but then that would effectively leave them where they are now anyway.
 
Iggore said:
the insurgents, who pretty much work toward achieving something that would look like a Hobbesian state of nature.

Huh - where are you getting that? I don't think that any of them have suggested that, though obviously there are elements within the Pentagon who might wish you to believe that.

"The insurgents kill because they're just bad people. We kill because we have a hgher moral purpose."

Iggore said:
Its not secure, not just for our own selfish interests, but for the very people living there too.

Whereas the current arrangement IS secure? Be serious.

I get the impression that US civilians matter more to you than Iraqi or Iranian ones.

Iggore said:
Maybe if the Insurgents were united ideologically, with a clear aim and goals, maybe if they could be negociated with, but its not the case.

Why can't we negotiate with multiple groups? That's the way it usually works.

Iggore said:
But this is all suppositions.

So you're really accusing Iran simply on the basis of suppositions rather than evidence. That's an appalling basis to start a war.
 
- 1)Since that the insurgency is clearly working toward the removal of american military power and the destabilization of the Bagdad government...

2)...and since that the insurgency have nothing to offer to fill the void that would be created by the removal of american military power and since that no insurgent group possess a fraction of the legitimacy of the irakian government, it seems clear to me that...

3)...a Hobbesian state of nature would follow an american retreat, because there would be no central authority anymore, but only a multitude of heterogenous fighting groups working toward different, contradictory goals with murderous means. Saudi backed sunni militias, iranian backed shiits death squads, a multitude of foreign fighters with their own agenda, irakian nationalists, kurds working toward an independant Kurdistan, some fighting for an islamist State, etc. It would look like Somalia.

I dont need the "Amerikkkan imperal propaganda machine" to convince me of what would follow if the Insurgency manage to remove the americans out of Iraq, I can use my own jugement, for what its worth.

- Of course the american proposition is more secure. The only reason it is not secure is because it is not working because of the efforts of the Insurgency.

- I believe that some of the insurgent groups can't be negiotiated with because they work toward contradictory goals. This is true, as the civil war prove. This mean that you can't give what one group wants without offending another one, which will cause them to go on fighting. Of course, you can always play one group against another, but I dont know how that would work out.

It would be easy to negotiate wit the insurgents if they were united against the americans, but they're fighting each others now.

- You can always attack the credibility of my suppositions, but you can't attack my argument for being based on suppositions, since I can't work with anything else. I'm more interested to know if my suppositions make sense rather than being told that suppositions are all I have. I already know that. Heck, what would you accept has evidence? the declaration of the military officials working in Irak? I already have that in the news item I posted, but its apparently not enough.
 
Iran Ready But Says Strike On Nuclear Sites Unlikely

Iran is as target rich this week, as it was last week, and as it will be next week.
by Siavosh Ghjazi
Tehran (AFP) Jan 17, 2007
Iran believes a military strike against its nuclear installations is highly improbable but has nonetheless taken the necessary precautions in case it is attacked, top officials said on Wednesday. "We think that it is highly improbable that our nuclear sites would be bombed but we have taken the necessary precautions even for this," said Mohammad Saeedi, vice president of Iran's atomic energy organisation, according to the ISNA agency. The United States and Israel, Iran's two arch-enemies, have never ruled out military action against the Islamic republic to thwart its nuclear programme, which they allege is aimed at making an atomic weapon.
Saeedi did not specify what the precautions have involved.

Defence Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najar also said Iran was prepared for any potential move against it.

"Iran's armed forces are closely watching all movements in the region and will not allow any aggression from enemies," he said according to the IRNA news agency.

A report in the Sunday Times newspaper in Britain earlier this month said that Israel was already planning a small-scale nuclear strike on Iranian nuclear sites, although this was strongly denied by the Jewish state.

Iran has already been hit by UN Security Council sanctions over its nuclear programme, which it insists is peaceful and aimed at meeting the energy needs of a growing population.

Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, echoed Saeedi's comments, saying that "all the options have been taken into account".

"But this talk (of an attack) should not be taken too seriously. We think they have the minimum of intelligence not to do a thing like this," he told reporters, according to IRNA.

Saeedi also said Iran would press on with its nuclear programme, even if the UN Security Council agreed even tougher resolutions against Tehran in the future.

"Even if worse resolutions are adopted, we have started our work and we will continue with it. The secret of our success is unity," he said.

"UN Security Council resolutions will not prevent the Iranian people from achieving their objectives," he added.

Iran's parliament reacted to the UN Security Council resolution by passing a law that obliges the government to "revise" its cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog.

But almost a month after the adoption of the UN resolution, the government has yet to indicate how it intends to interpret the law and Larijani said that there were no need for over-hasty action.

"Why do you want us to react in a hurry? We have to react in a measured way. We want to act in a way that takes into account the country's national interests," he said.

Iran has nonetheless made clear it has no intention of surrendering its nuclear ambitions.

The government spokesman said Monday Tehran wanted to install "even more" than 3,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium at a key nuclear plant in defiance of the UN Security Council demand to freeze the sensitive activity.

Officials have also predicted Iran would make a major announcement on the "completion" of Iran's nuclear programme during the 10-day anniversary celebrations for the Islamic revolution in February.


US Defence Chief Seeks Saudi Support On Iran
by Jim Mannion
Riyadh (AFP) Jan 17 - US Defence Secretary Robert Gates touched down in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday angling for support from the oil-rich kingdom in confronting Iran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. Gates, who flew into Riyadh from Kabul, was also expected to discuss Washington's new strategy for taming sectarian bloodshed and chaos in Iraq when he sees King Abdullah for face-to-face talks.

He is the first Pentagon chief to visit Saudi Arabia -- a key US ally in the Gulf region and wider Middle East -- since his predecessor Donald Rumsfeld came in April 2003, soon after the US-led invasion of Iraq.

King Abdullah received Gates at a desert camp at Rawdhat Khuraim, 80 kilometres (50 miles) northeast of Riyadh, together with Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who is also defense minister.

Prince Meqrin bin Abdul Aziz, who heads the Saudi intelligence services, was also present, the state-run Saudi Press Agency reported. No other details of the talks were disclosed.

Speaking to reporters travelling with him, Gates indicated that Washington was counting on Riyadh's support in addressing hot-button issues in the region, starting with Iran's nuclear programme.

"I think we can always use Saudi cooperation on these issues in the Gulf region," said Gates when asked if Washington was seeking Riyadh's support to check Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes only, has defied UN Security Council demands to halt its uranium enrichment work -- prompting the world body to impose limited sanctions.

"I think above all, I will be interested in hearing the king's views in these issues, and how the king sees the situation in the region," said Gates, who replaced Rumsfeld as defence secretary a month ago.

"His perspective on these things is specially what I'm interested in."

Gates, former head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), has moved to raise the US military's profile in the Gulf since his appointment by US President George W. Bush.

A second US aircraft carrier battlegroup has been ordered to the Gulf region -- the first time the United States has had so much seagoing muscle in the vicinity since the Iraq invasion.

Bush has meanwhile ordered the deployment of a Patriot missile defense battalion to the region to protect against any possible Iranian ballistic missile threat.

The moves were announced last week as part of the new US strategy for Iraq that will see 21,500 additional troops being deployed, the lion's share of them going to Baghdad to help Iraqi forces quell rampant sectarian bloodshed.

Prior to leaving Afghanistan earlier Wednesday, Gates said that US commanders there had asked for more troops for Afghanistan as well.

The new US strategy calls for placing Iraq within a regional context, and Gates's brief stop in Saudi Arabia was aimed at re-engaging important US allies in the region.

He said Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's government "needs, I think, help from other governments in terms of its influence and authority at home."

"I think anything that governments within the region and outside the region can do, particularly on the economic reconstruction and development side in Iraq, would be immensely helpful to the Maliki government and to the Iraqi people," he said.

Saudi Arabia is the fourth stop in a trip that has taken Gates -- who visited Iraq in December -- to London, NATO headquarters in Brussels, and Kabul.

Iran
 
Iggore said:
2)...and since that the insurgency have nothing to offer to fill the void that would be created by the removal of american military power and since that no insurgent group possess a fraction of the legitimacy of the irakian government.

I don't know why you don't think they can run the place - or why a government without US military occupation would be less legitimate.
But you might have to accept the de facto partition fo Iraq.

Iggore said:
3)...a Hobbesian state of nature would follow an american retreat...It would look like Somalia. .

Has anyone attempted peace negotiations yet? That might help account for the continued violence.

Iggore said:
- Of course the american proposition is more secure. The only reason it is not secure is because it is not working because of the efforts of the Insurgency. .

That really is doublethink. the reason for the insurgency is the US presence.

Iggore said:
It would be easy to negotiate wit the insurgents if they were united against the americans, but they're fighting each others now. .

And why can't they all sit round the same table? That's how multilateral peace negotiations go.

At the end of the day, by one means or another, they will have to come to terms over Iraq. They're not stupid either, and they prefer peaceful means to destroying their country too.

Iggore said:
Heck, what would you accept has evidence? the declaration of the military officials working in Irak? I already have that in the news item I posted, but its apparently not enough.

Obviously not, because they have an agenda. And they got it so horribly wrong last time. Something independent would be a start, and some actual nuts and bolts.
 
i'm not really sure that the insurgency only exists because of the american prescence. of course it would never have happened without the american invasion but the situation has moved on since then and the differing communities in iraq have scarred each other to a greater extent than they have the americans. removing US forces is not going to stop the recriminations that come around as a result of car bombs and death squads. from the way saddam was executed it does not suggest to me that the divisions causing the violence only exist in an american inspired vacuum.
 
A bit of data on the closure of Hormuz and world oil reserves

http://orbat.com/site/index.html

Oil Reserves: Hormuz Closure Scenario

v.1.1 August 1, 2006


Approximately 16 million/barrel-per-day moves through Hormuz, approximately 90% of Persian Gulf oil exports. Of this Iran accounts for about 2 million/bpd.


Assume all except 5 million/bpd is lost due to closure, and Saudi Arabia assigns Yanabu Pipeline throughput on pro-rata basis depending on normal imports.


Only government stocks are counted. To the extent private companies are holding/can hold above normal reserves to buffer against disruptions, this is the worst-case figure.


OECD countries held an additional 2,568-million/bbl in stock. US as of end July 2006 held approximately 330 million barrels of commercial stocks independent of the government's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.


Period Country Million Bbl .67Gulf Loss Days in reserve

End 2005 USA 686 1.461 469

End 2005 Japan 4052 3.471 117

End 2005 ROK 1432 1.33 108

End 2005 Rest OECD 321 2.8731 112


Oil in transit at sea is estimated at 500-million barrels as of July 2006.

1. 2004 average imports

2. Includes government mandated reserves in private hands
 
i suppose if iran was to be engaged it would realistically be an intensifying or expansion of one front rather than the addition of another. the impact that it would have on the insurgency in certain areas of iraq would in effect make it part of the same front.
 
ted_bloody_maul said:
i suppose if iran was to be engaged it would realistically be an intensifying or expansion of one front rather than the addition of another. the impact that it would have on the insurgency in certain areas of iraq would in effect make it part of the same front.
It could certainly be argued that the Invasion of Iraq was simply part of the preparation for engagement with Iran and quite possibly with Syria.
 
Pietro_Mercurios said:
ted_bloody_maul said:
i suppose if iran was to be engaged it would realistically be an intensifying or expansion of one front rather than the addition of another. the impact that it would have on the insurgency in certain areas of iraq would in effect make it part of the same front.
It could certainly be argued that the Invasion of Iraq was simply part of the preparation for engagement with Iran and quite possibly with Syria.

you could argue the same of the invasion of afghanistan. iran is effectively a hog on a spit should america use its bases on either side. i don't think that was the basis for the invasion of afghanistan and certainly the iranians didn't think so either but it probably occured some time after that. what is intriguing is the US rejection of the deal that iran offered after the invasion of iraq (which i think could still have stood as an end in itself). that certainly suggests that regime change in iran was very much on the mind of the americans even before the nuclear issue and ahmedinijad reared their contentious heads. of course, they'd have to have assumed a far speedier resolution to the pacifying of both afghanistan and iraq to do this.
 
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... meline.htm

interesting site with information on Iran's bomb

The nuclear issue with Iran started 18 years ago and can go back as far as the building of Bushehr.

A time line of the Iranian nuclear issue

1956: Marion King Hubbert publishes his prediction that world oil production will peak in the year 2000.[44]

1957 The United States and Iran sign a civil nuclear co-operation agreement as part of the US Atoms for Peace program.[42]

9 August 1963, Iran signs the Partial nuclear test ban treaty (PTBT) and ratifies it on 23 December 1963.[45]

1967: The Tehran Nuclear Research Centre is built and run by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).

September 1967, The USA supplies 5.545 kg of enriched uranium, of which 5.165 kg contain fissile isotopes for fuel in a research reactor. The USA also supplies 112 kg of plutonium, of which 104 kg are fissile isotopes, for use as start-up sources for research reactor.[42]

July 1968: Iran signs the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty and ratifies it. It goes into effect on March 5, 1970.

1970s: Under the rule of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, plans are made to construct up to twenty nuclear power stations across the country with U.S. support and backing. Numerous contracts are signed with various Western firms, and the German firm Kraftwerk Union (a subsidiary of Siemens AG) begins construction on the Bushehr power plant in 1974.

1974: Iranian oil production peaks at 6.1 million barrels per day.[46]

1974: the Atomic Energy Act of Iran was promulgated. The Act covers the activities for which the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran was established at that period. These activities included using atomic energy and radiation in industry, agriculture and service industries, setting up atomic power stations and desalination factories, producing source materials needed in atomic industries, creating the scientific and technical infrastructure required for carrying out the said projects, as well as co-ordinating and supervising all matters pertaining to atomic energy in the country.[47]

1975: Massachusetts Institute of Technology signs a contract with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran to provide training for Iranian nuclear engineers.

1979: Iran's Islamic revolution puts a freeze on the existing nuclear program and the Bushehr contract with Siemens AG is terminated as the German firm leaves.

1982: Iranian officials announced that they planned to build a reactor powered by their own uranium at the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre.

1983: International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors inspect Iranian nuclear facilities, and report on a proposed co-operation agreement to help Iran manufacture enriched uranium fuel as part of Iran's "ambitious program in the field of nuclear power reactor technology and fuel cycle technology." The assistance program is later terminated under U.S. pressure.

1984: Iranian radio announced that negotiations with Niger on the purchase of uranium were nearing conclusion.

1985: Iranian radio programs openly discuss the significance of the discovery of uranium deposits in Iran with the director of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation.

1989: the Radiation Protection Act of Iran was ratified in public session of April 9 1989 by the Parliament and was approved by the Council of Law-Guardians on April 19 1989.[47]

January 1995: Iran signs an $800 million contract with the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy (MinAtom) to complete reactors at Bushehr under IAEA safeguards.[48]

1996: China and Iran inform the IAEA of plans to construct a nuclear enrichment facility in Iran, but China withdraws from the contract under U.S. pressure. Iran advises the IAEA that it plans to pursue the construction anyway.

2002: Iran's oil production, following the OPEC double peak model, peaks at 3.4 million barrels a day and goes into terminal decline.[46]

January 29, 2002: US president George W. Bush speaks of an "Axis of evil" gathering Iran, Iraq and North Korea during his State of the Union Address.

August 2002: A spokesman for the MEK terrorist group holds a press conference to "expose" two nuclear facilities in Natanz and Arak that they claim to have discovered. However, the sites were already known to US intelligence. Furthermore, under the terms of Iran's then-existing safeguards agreement with the IAEA, Iran was under no obligation to disclose the facilities while they were still under construction and not yet within the 180-day time limit specified by the safeguards agreement.

December 2002: The U.S. accuses Iran of attempting to make nuclear weapons.

Spring 2003: Iran makes an offer of negotiation with the US that covers nuclear matters and Iran's support for Palestinian groups resisting Israeli occupation. The offer is spurned by the Bush administration, which instead criticizes the Swiss ambassador who forwarded the offer.

16 June 2003: Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, declares that "Iran failed to report certain nuclear materials and activities" and requests "co-operative actions" from the country. However, at no point does the International Atomic Energy Agency declare Iran in breach of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. [22]

October 21 2003: As a confidence-building measure, Iran and the EU-3 agree to negotiations under the terms of the Paris Agreement, pursuant to which Iran agrees to temporarily suspend enrichment and permit more stringent set of nuclear inspections in accordance with the Additional Protocol, and the EU-3 explicitly recognizes Iran's right to civilian nuclear programs in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The EU-3 violate this pledge in August 2005 by submitting a demand that Iran abandon enrichment nonetheless.

October 31 2003: The IAEA declares that Iran has submitted a "comprehensive" declaration of its nuclear program.[23]

November 11 2003: The IAEA declares that there is no evidence that Iran is attempting to build an atomic bomb. [24]

November 13 2003: Washington claims that the IAEA report is "impossible to believe". The UN stands behind the facts provided in the report. [25]

December 18 2003: As agreed in the Paris Agreement, Iran voluntarily signs and implements the Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty[49] Though the Protocol was not binding on Iran until ratified, Iran voluntarily agrees to permit expanded and more intensive IAEA inspections pursuant to the Protocol, which fail to turn up a nuclear weapons program in Iran. Iran ends the voluntarily implementation of Additional Protocol after two years of inspections, as a protest to continued EU-3 demands that Iran abandon all enrichment.

June 2004: Kamal Kharrazi, Iran's foreign minister, responding to demands that Iran halt its nuclear program, says: "We won't accept any new obligations. Iran has a high technical capability and has to be recognised by the international community as a member of the nuclear club. This is an irreversible path." [26]

June 14 2004: Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, accuses Iran of "less than satisfactory" co-operation during the IAEA investigation of its nuclear program. ElBaradei demands "accelerated and proactive cooperation" from Iran which exceed the terms of Iran's legal obligations.

July 27 2004: Iran removes seals placed upon uranium centrifuges by the International Atomic Energy Agency and resumes construction of the centrifuges at Natanz. (AP)

On June 29, 2004, IAEA Director General Mohammad El-Baradei announced that the Bushehr reactor was "not of international concern" since it was a bilateral Russian-Iranian project intended to produce nuclear energy.

July 31 2004: Iran states that it has resumed building nuclear centrifuges to enrich uranium, reversing a voluntary October 2003 pledge to Britain, France, and Germany to suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities. The United States contends that the purpose is to produce weapons-grade uranium.

August 10 2004: Several long-standing charges and questions regarding weapons-grade uranium samples found in Iran are clarified by the IAEA. The samples match Pakistani and Russian sources which had contaminated imported Iranian equipment from those countries. (Jane's Intelligence)

August 24 2004: Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi declares in Wellington, New Zealand, that Iran will retaliate with force against Israel or any nation that attempts a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear program. Earlier in the week, Israel's Chief of Staff, General Moshe Ya'alon, told an Israeli newspaper that "Iran is striving for nuclear capability and I suggest that in this matter [Israel] not rely on others."

September 6 2004: The latest IAEA report finds that "unresolved issues surrounding Iran's atomic program are being clarified or resolved outright". [27]

September 18, 2004: The IAEA, the United Nations's nuclear watchdog agency, unanimously adopts a resolution calling on Iran to suspend all activities related to uranium enrichment.

September 21, 2004: Iran announces that it will continue its nuclear program converting 37 tonnes of yellowcake uranium for processing in centrifuges. (Reuters)

October 18 2004: Iran states that it is willing to negotiate with the U.K., Germany, and France regarding a suspension of its uranium enrichment activities, but that it will never renounce its right to enrich uranium.

October 24 2004: The European Union makes a proposal to provide civilian nuclear technology to Iran in exchange for Iran terminating its uranium enrichment program permanently. Iran rejects this outright saying it will not renounce its right to enrichment technologies. A decision to refer the matter from the International Atomic Energy Agency to the United Nations Security Council is expected on November 25 2004.

November 15, 2004: Talks between Iran and three European Union members, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany, result in a compromise. Iran agrees to temporarily suspend its active uranium enrichment program for the duration of a second round of talks, during which attempts will be made at arriving at a permanent, mutually-beneficial solution.

November 15 2004: A confidential UN report is leaked. The report states that all nuclear materials within Iran have been accounted for and there is no evidence of any military nuclear program. Nevertheless, it still cannot discount the possibility of such a program because it does not have perfect knowledge. (BBC)

November 22 2004: Iran declares that it will voluntarily suspend its uranium enrichment program to enter negotiations with the EU. Iran will review its decision in three months. The EU seeks to have the suspension made permanent and is willing to provide economic and political incentives.

November 24 2004: Iran seeks to obtain permission from the European Union, in accordance with its recent agreement with the EU, to allow it to continue working with 24 centrifuges for research purposes.

November 28 2004: Iran withdraws its demand that some of its technology be exempted from a freeze on nuclear enrichment activities. (BBC)

June 2005, the U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice said IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei should either toughen his stance on Iran or fail to be chosen for a third term as IAEA head. Following a one on one meeting between Dr Rice and Dr ElBaredai on 9 June the US withdrew its opposition and Dr ElBaradei was re-elected to his position on 13 June 2005.[50]

August 8 and August 10 2005: Iran resumed the conversion of uranium at the Isfahan facility, under IAEA safeguards, but does not engage in enrichment of uranium.

August 9 2005: The Iranian Head of State Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa forbidding the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons. The full text of the fatwa was released in an official statement at the meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna.

August 11 2005: The thirty-five-member governing board of the IAEA adopted a resolution calling upon Iran to suspend uranium conversion, and instructing director general Mohammed ElBaradeil to submit a report on Iran's nuclear program by September 3, 2005. The resolution is considered by many to be weak since it does not include the threat of referral to the security council.

August 15 2005: Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, installed his new government, however Iranian presidents do not have exclusive control over Iran's nuclear program, which falls mainly under the purview of Iran's Supreme Leader. Ali Larijani replaced Hassan Rowhani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran's top policy-making body, with nuclear policy in his purview.

September 15 2005: At a United Nations high-level summit, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stated Iran had the right to develop a civil nuclear-power program within the terms of the 1970 treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. He offers a compromise solution in which foreign companies will be permitted to invest and participate in Iran's nuclear program, which he said would ensure that it cannot be secretly diverted to make nuclear weapons. The majority of the U.S. delegation left during his speech, but the U.S./UN mission denied there was a walkout.[51]

October 10 2005, Iranian Oil Ministry Deputy for International Affairs Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian said that Iran could run out of oil reserves in nine decades.[52]

November 5 2005: The Iranian government approved a plan that allows foreign investors to participate in the work at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. The cabinet also authorised the AEOI to take necessary measures to attract foreign and domestic investment in the uranium enrichment process.[53]

November 19 2005: The IAEA released a report saying that Iran blocked nuclear inspectors from the United Nations from conducting a second visit to a site known as Parchin military complex, where Iran was not legally required to allow inspections at all. The first inspections had failed to turn up any evidence of a nuclear program. IAEA Director-General Mohamed El-Baradei said in the report, "Iran's full transparency is indispensable and overdue." Separately, Iran confirmed that it had resumed the conversion of new quantities of uranium pursuant to its rights under the NPT, despite an IAEA resolution to stop such work. CNA

January, 2006: Iran provides the European negotiating side with a six-point proposal, which includes an offer to again suspend uranium enrichment for a period of 2 years, pending the outcome of continued negotiations. The offer is dismissed by the Europeans, and not reported in the Western press.[54] This offer of compromise follows several other offers from Iran, all of which were summarily dismissed by the US.

January 31 2006: The IAEA reports that "Iran has continued to facilitate access under its Safeguards Agreement as requested by the Agency ... including by providing in a timely manner the requisite declarations and access to locations" and lists outstanding issues.[55]

January 2006: The New York Times reporter James Risen published State of War, in which he alleged a CIA operation code-named Operation Merlin backfired and may have helped Iran in its nuclear program, in an attempt to delay it feeding them false information.

February 2 2006: Pakistani Finance Minister Sirajul Haq: "Attack on Iran will be construed as attack on us"[56]

February 4 2006: The IAEA votes 27-3 to report Iran to the United Nations Security Council. After the vote, Iran announced its intention to end voluntary co-operation with the IAEA beyond basic Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty requirements, and to resume enrichment of uranium.[57]

March, 2006: The U.S. National Security Strategy decried Iran, stating that "Iran has violated its Non-Proliferation Treaty safeguards obligations and refuses to provide objective guarantees that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes."[58] The term "objective guarantees" is understood to mean permanent abandonment of enrichment.

March 15 2006: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reaffirms Iran's commitment to developing a domestic nuclear power industry.[59]

March 27 2006: In a Foreign Policy article entitled "Fool Me Twice", Joseph Cirincione, director for non-proliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, claimed that "some senior officials have already made up their minds: They want to hit Iran." and that there "may be a co-ordinated campaign to prepare for a military strike on Iran." Joseph Cirincione also warns "that a military strike would be disastrous for the United States. It would rally the Iranian public around an otherwise unpopular regime, inflame anti-American anger around the Muslim world, and jeopardise the already fragile U.S. position in Iraq. And it would accelerate, not delay, the Iranian nuclear program. Hard-liners in Tehran would be proven right in their claim that the only thing that can deter the United States is a nuclear bomb. Iranian leaders could respond with a crash nuclear program that could produce a bomb in a few years."[60]

Wikinews has news related to:
Former Iranian president Rafsanjani states Iran is enriching uraniumApril 11 2006: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had enriched uranium to reactor-grade using 164 centrifuges. He said, "I am officially announcing that Iran has joined the group of those countries which have nuclear technology. This is the result of the Iranian nation's resistance. Based on international regulations, we will continue our path until we achieve production of industrial-scale enrichment". He reiterated that the enrichment was performed for purely civil power purposes and not for weapons purposes.

April 26 2006: Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Americans should know that if they assault Iran their interests will be harmed anywhere in the world that is possible, and that the Iranian nation will respond to any blow with double the intensity.[61]

April 28 2006: The International Atomic Energy Agency hands a report titled Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran to the UN Security Council.[62] The IAEA says that Iran has stepped up its uranium enrichment programs during the 30 day period covered by the report.[63]

June 01 2006: The UN Security Council agrees to a set of proposals designed to reach a compromise with Iran.[64]

July 31 2006: The UN Security Council gives until August 31, 2006 for Iran to suspend all uranium enrichment and related activities or face the prospect of sanctions.[65] The draft passed by a vote of 14-1 (Qatar, which represents Arab states on the council, opposing). The same day, Iran's U.N. Ambassador Javad Zarif qualified the resolution as "arbitrary" and illegal because the NTP protocol explicitly guarantees under international law Iran’s right to pursue nuclear activities for peaceful purposes. In response to today’s vote at the UN, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his country will revise his position vis-à-vis the economic/incentive package offered previously by the G-6 (5 permanent Security council members plus Germany.)[66]

September 16 2006: (Havana, Cuba) All of the 118 Non-Aligned Movement member countries declare their support for Iran's nuclear program for civilian purposes in their final written statement [28]. That is a clear majority of the 192 countries comprising the entire United Nations.

January 15 2007: Ardeshir Hosseinpour, an Iranian junior scientist involved in The Uranium Conversion Facility at Isfahan died suspeciously.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran's_nuclear_program
 
Iran reports receiving Russian weapons

By NASSER KARIMI
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

TEHRAN, Iran -- Iranian officials said Wednesday that they have taken delivery of advanced Russian air defense missile systems - weapons intended, according to one Russian news agency, to defend Tehran's major nuclear facilities.

Announcement of the delivery of the Tor-M1 mobile missile launchers came as Iran launched three days of military maneuvers, its first since the U.N. Security Council approved sanctions against Iran on Dec. 23.

"We have had constructive defense transactions with Russia and we purchased Tor M-1 missiles that were recently delivered to us," the official Web site of Iranian state television quoted Minister of Defense Mostafa Mohammad Najjar as saying.

Najjar did not say how many missiles were delivered or when they arrived. Previously Moscow said it would supply 29 of the mobile surface-to-air missile systems to Iran under a $700 million contract signed in December 2005, Russian media has reported.

According to Russia's ITAR-Tass news agency, the weapons were expected to be used to protect major government and military installations such the nuclear facilities at Isfahan, Bushehr, Tehran and in eastern Iran.


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/ ... apons.html

giant game of risk jumps to mind
 
This is mighty interesting.

N Korea helping Iran with nuclear testing

North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.

Under the terms of a new understanding between the two countries, the North Koreans have agreed to share all the data and information they received from their successful test last October with Teheran's nuclear scientists....

A senior European defence official told The Daily Telegraph that North Korea had invited a team of Iranian nuclear scientists to study the results of last October's underground test to assist Teheran's preparations to conduct its own — possibly by the end of this year.

Does this settle the question of the purpose of the iranian nuclear program? Maybe not, but now they've never looked more suspicious than now.
 
maybe so in the eyes of those hoping that a war is on the cards Iggore ;)

There were unconfirmed reports at the time of the Korean firing that an Iranian team was present

Western intelligence agencies have reported an increase in the number of North Korean and Iranian scientists travelling between the two countries.

now lets look closer at this

it was written by Con Coughlin

British journalists – and British journals – are being manipulated by the secret intelligence agencies, and I think we ought to try and put a stop to it.
The manipulation takes three forms. The first is the attempt to recruit journalists to spy on other people, or for spies to go themselves under journalistic “cover”. This occurs today and it has gone on for years. It is dangerous, not only for the journalist concerned, but for other journalists who get tarred with the espionage brush. Farzad Bazoft was a colleague of mine on the London Observer when he was executed by Saddam Hussein for espionage. It did not, in a sense, matter whether he was really a spy or not. Either way, he ended up dead.

The second form of manipulation that worries me is when intelligence officers are allowed to pose as journalists in order to write tendentious articles under false names. Evidence of this only rarely comes to light, but two examples have surfaced recently – mainly because of the whistleblowing activities of a couple of renegade officers – David Shayler from MI5 and Richard Tomlinson from MI6.

The third sort of manipulation is the most insidious – when intelligence agency propaganda stories are planted on willing journalists, who disguise their origin from their readers. There is – or has been until recently – a very active programme by the secret agencies to colour what appears in the British press, called, if publications by various defectors can be believed, “I/Ops”. That is an abbreviation for Information Operations, and I am – unusually – in a position to provide some information about it.

Let us take that third allegation first. Black propaganda – false material where the source is disguised – has been a tool of British intelligence agencies since the days of the war, when the Special Operations Executive got up to all kinds of tricks with clandestine radio stations, to drip pornography and pessimism into the ears of impressionable German soldiers. Post-war, this unwholesome game mutated into the anti-Soviet Information Research Department. Its task was ostensibly to plant anti-communist stories in the press of the third world, but its lurid tales of Marxist drunkenness and corruption sometimes leaked back to confuse the readers of the British media. A colourful example of the way these techniques expand to meet the exigencies of the hour came in the early 1970s, when the readers of the News of the World found before their eyes – and no doubt to their bewilderment – a front page splash, Russian Sub in IRA plot sensation, complete with aerial photograph of a Soviet conning tower awash off the coast of Donegal. That was the work of Hugh Mooney of the IRD, an organisation which was eventually closed down in 1977. Its spirit did not die, however. Nearly 25 years later, readers of the Sunday Telegraph were regaled with a dramatic story about the son of Col Gadafy of Libya and his alleged connection to a currency counterfeiting plan. The story was written by Con Coughlin, the paper’s then chief foreign correspondent, and it was falsely attributed to a “British banking official”. In fact, it had been given to him by officers of MI6, who, it transpired, had been supplying Coughlin with material for years[/b].



http://www.bjr.org.uk/data/2000/no2_leigh.htm

so what is going on exactly , is there colusion between NK and iran or is it another planted story let out thro the usual party's ???? as "war in the making propaganda"
 
techybloke666 said:
maybe so in the eyes of those hoping that a war is on the cards Iggore ;)

There were unconfirmed reports at the time of the Korean firing that an Iranian team was present

Western intelligence agencies have reported an increase in the number of North Korean and Iranian scientists travelling between the two countries.

now lets look closer at this

it was written by Con Coughlin

British journalists – and British journals – are being manipulated by the secret intelligence agencies, and I think we ought to try and put a stop to it.
The manipulation takes three forms. The first is the attempt to recruit journalists to spy on other people, or for spies to go themselves under journalistic “cover”. This occurs today and it has gone on for years. It is dangerous, not only for the journalist concerned, but for other journalists who get tarred with the espionage brush. Farzad Bazoft was a colleague of mine on the London Observer when he was executed by Saddam Hussein for espionage. It did not, in a sense, matter whether he was really a spy or not. Either way, he ended up dead.

The second form of manipulation that worries me is when intelligence officers are allowed to pose as journalists in order to write tendentious articles under false names. Evidence of this only rarely comes to light, but two examples have surfaced recently – mainly because of the whistleblowing activities of a couple of renegade officers – David Shayler from MI5 and Richard Tomlinson from MI6.

The third sort of manipulation is the most insidious – when intelligence agency propaganda stories are planted on willing journalists, who disguise their origin from their readers. There is – or has been until recently – a very active programme by the secret agencies to colour what appears in the British press, called, if publications by various defectors can be believed, “I/Ops”. That is an abbreviation for Information Operations, and I am – unusually – in a position to provide some information about it.

Let us take that third allegation first. Black propaganda – false material where the source is disguised – has been a tool of British intelligence agencies since the days of the war, when the Special Operations Executive got up to all kinds of tricks with clandestine radio stations, to drip pornography and pessimism into the ears of impressionable German soldiers. Post-war, this unwholesome game mutated into the anti-Soviet Information Research Department. Its task was ostensibly to plant anti-communist stories in the press of the third world, but its lurid tales of Marxist drunkenness and corruption sometimes leaked back to confuse the readers of the British media. A colourful example of the way these techniques expand to meet the exigencies of the hour came in the early 1970s, when the readers of the News of the World found before their eyes – and no doubt to their bewilderment – a front page splash, Russian Sub in IRA plot sensation, complete with aerial photograph of a Soviet conning tower awash off the coast of Donegal. That was the work of Hugh Mooney of the IRD, an organisation which was eventually closed down in 1977. Its spirit did not die, however. Nearly 25 years later, readers of the Sunday Telegraph were regaled with a dramatic story about the son of Col Gadafy of Libya and his alleged connection to a currency counterfeiting plan. The story was written by Con Coughlin, the paper’s then chief foreign correspondent, and it was falsely attributed to a “British banking official”. In fact, it had been given to him by officers of MI6, who, it transpired, had been supplying Coughlin with material for years[/b].



http://www.bjr.org.uk/data/2000/no2_leigh.htm

so what is going on exactly , is there colusion between NK and iran or is it another planted story let out thro the usual party's ???? as "war in the making propaganda"


i'd say that it's entirely plausible that stories about iran/nk nuclear programmes could be fabrications but this piece offers nothing more than precedent. i think you could argue the case that the war has been provoked, initially at least, by the US but iranian reaction hasn't helped and may actually be the decisive factor.
 
Israel tries to cut off Tehran from world markets


Israel is launching a campaign to isolate Iran economically and to soften up world opinion for the option of a military strike aimed at crippling or delaying Tehran's uranium enrichment programme.

Pressure will be applied to major US pension funds to stop investment in about 70 companies that trade directly with Iran, and to international banks that trade with its oil sector, cutting off the country's access to hard currency. The aim is to isolate Tehran from the world markets in a campaign similar to that against South Africa at the height of apartheid.

Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to be pursued in international courts for calling the Holocaust a myth, and saying Israel should be wiped off the map. The case will be launched under the 1948 UN convention on the prevention and punishment of the crime of genocide, which outlaws 'direct and public incitement to genocide'.Before flying to London to spearhead the mission to sell the sanctions, the Likud party leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, said: 'A campaign to divest commercial investment from Iran, beginning with the large pension funds in the west ... either stops Iran's nuclear programme or it will pave the way for tougher actions. So it's no-lose for us.'In December the UN ordered a ban on the supply of materials that could contribute to Iran's nuclear and missile programme, and an asset freeze on Iranian companies and individuals. But it stopped short of a full travel ban.

Israeli defence sources claim that Iran is close to the point of no return in its uranium enrichment programme using gas centrifuges.

A senior official said: 'They currently have problems but if the programme is allowed to continue without interruptions we estimate they will have mastered the technology this year. We expect a declaration from them in the next month, possibly on February 21, the day of the Islamic Revolution, that they have reached significant achievements.'It will be a bluff, but it will have the potential of marketing Iran as a regional superpower. If they do it, a nuclear Iran will cast a long shadow over the whole of the Middle East; we will have Hizbullastan in Lebanon, Hamastan here, and Shiastan in Iraq.'Military analysts speaking at an annual conference in Herzliya, near Tel Aviv, claimed that Israel was facing an 'existential threat' from the Iranian uranium enrichment programme, which Tehran has consistently claimed was for a civilian nuclear fuel cycle. The only division of opinion was over the imminence of this threat.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/ ... 92,00.html?
 
Iran poised to enter the space race
15:16 26 January 2007
NewScientist.com news service
Stephen Battersby
Iran is ready to enter space, according to a report in Aviation Week & Space Technology magazine.

The report quotes Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman of Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, as saying that a space launcher has been assembled and "will lift off soon", carrying an Iranian satellite.

The launch vehicle is thought to be based on Iran’s Shahab-3 Missile, which has a range of 1300 to 1600 kilometres (800 to 1000 miles). The fear is that it might be intended to test technology for a long-range ballistic missile.

“This has been anticipated for some time – the Iranians have been saying they will launch satellites” says Doug Richardson, editor of Jane’s Missiles and Rockets.

Their first aim might be reconnaissance. “They are concerned about what capabilities Israel has, and the only way they can find out is by observing from space,” says Bhupendra Jasani of King’s College in London, UK, an expert in the military applications of space. “Clearly they can’t fly aircraft, that would be a violation of airspace, and they would be shot down very quickly.”

“Eventually if they do seriously develop any kind of nuclear capability, then they would want satellites to provide targeting information,” says Jasani. “And once they have developed a vehicle to launch satellites, then it’s not a big step to put a nuclear warhead on.”

Stage by stage
According to the Aviation Week report, the satellite launch vehicle might then be converted into an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICMB) with a range of about 4000 kilometres (2500 miles).

If a launcher can put a satellite into orbit then it can also deliver a payload of the same mass anywhere on Earth. However, a first-generation nuclear warhead – which Iran is not yet thought to be capable of producing – is likely to be heavier than a small reconnaissance satellite, limiting the missile’s range.

The launch technology might take some time to perfect. The Shahab has probably been modified by adding more rocket stages to get a payload up to orbital speed.

“It is not as easy to cobble these things together as people think,” says Richardson. In the 1960s he worked on the unsuccessful ELDO project, a European launcher based on the British ICMB Blue Streak, with a French second stage and a German third stage.

More recently, in 1998, North Korea tried to launch a satellite with their Taepodong missile as a first stage “It is about the same size as the Iranian Shahab. They added a Scud missile as the second stage and a solid propellant rocket as the third,” says Richardson. “It failed – perhaps not surprisingly.” North Korea's latest missile tests in 2006 ended in the failure of its intercontinental missile, Taepodong-2 (see North Korea resumes missile testing).

Obvious concerns
Nonetheless, experts expect that Iran's technical difficulties will be overcome eventually. The US Defense Intelligence Agency thinks that Iran may be capable of developing an ICBM with a range of more than 4000 kilometres by 2015, says Aviation Week.

Given Iran’s nuclear programme, and despite denials that the country is developing warheads, the concerns are obvious, say observers.

“What worries me," says Jasani, "is that we have developed a lot of international control mechanisms such as the missile technology control regime and the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but none of them seem to have worked.”

“Should we be considering other ways of doing things, to reduce the importance of nuclear weapons? Iran feels threatened by Israel’s nuclear weapons, and they turn to deterrence. We need to address the deterrent concept – is it still viable?” Jasani asks.

Related Articles

China comes clean over shot-down satellite
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn11009
23 January 2007

North Korea resumes missile testing
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn9489
05 July 2006

Weblinks

Jane’s Missiles and Rockets
http://jmr.janes.com/public/jmr/index.shtml

Aviation Week article
www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.j ... N01257.xml



http://space.newscientist.com/article/d ... -race.html
 
bush quoted as saying "If Iran escalates its military action in Iraq to the detriment of our troops and/or innocent Iraqi people, we will respond firmly."



MORRIS: Today's historic trade agreement between Australia and Hong Kong marks a new season of hope for the future of world trade. The two countries have been at each others' throats for years, but now the hatchet's been buried by a treaty which allows unrestricted trading between all parties at all levels. I'm joined now by Martin Craste, the British minister with responsibility for the Commonwealth, and Gavin Hawtry, the Australian foreign secretary in Canberra. Gentlemen, this is pretty historic stuff, well done - a future of unbridled harmony then? Australia?

HAWTRY: Yeah, I think that Martin Craste and I can be pretty satisfied - it's a good day.

MORRIS [to Craste]: If, as in the past, Australia exceed their agreement, what will you do about it?

CRASTE: This is a pretty satisfactory treaty which I am sure will work well. Naturally, if the limits were exceeded this would be met with a firm line, but I can't see this being necessary.

MORRIS: Mr Hawtry - he's knocking a firm line in your direction. What are you going to do about that?

HAWTRY: Well, in that case we'd just reimpose sanctions as we did last year-

MORRIS: Sanctions! [To Craste] Hang on a second, they've only just swallowed their sanctions and now they're burping them back up in your face!

CRASTE: I think sanctions is rather premature talk. Certainly if sanctions were imposed we would have to retaliate with appropriate measures. But I can't-

MORRIS: I think 'appropriate measures' is a euphemism, Mr Hawtry - you know what it means, what are you going to do about that?

HAWTRY: Well, I'd just have to go back to Cabinet.

MORRIS: And ask them about what?

HAWTRY: I dunno, maybe it's a matter for the military-

MORRIS: The military!

CRASTE: I think a military reaction is inappropriate, and this is way, way over the top.

MORRIS [to Hawtry]: Sounds like you're being inappropriate! Are you?

HAWTRY: Course I'm not being inappropriate! Martin Craste knows that full well.

CRASTE: This is the sort of misunderstanding that I thought we'd laid to rest during our negotiating period!

MORRIS: Misunderstanding it certainly is, it's certainly not a treaty, is it? You're both at each others' throats, you're backing yourselves up with arms - what are you going to do about it? Mr Hawtry, let me give you a hint. Bang!

HAWTRY: What're you asking me to say?

MORRIS: You know damn well what I want you to say! You're putting yourself in a situation of armed conflict - what are you plunging yourself into?

HAWTRY: You want me to say it?

MORRIS: I want you to say it, yes!

HAWTRY: You want the word?

MORRIS: The word!

HAWTRY: I will not flinch...

MORRIS: I will not flinch *from*...?

HAWTRY: War.

http://www.alan-partridge.co.uk/scripts ... aytod5.htm
 
Hanslune said:
Interesting piece of slick propaganda on Iran/Shia conspiracy

http://www.terrorismawareness.org/islamic-mein-kampf/
You must have very different criterion for what constitutes 'slick', compared to mine.

It's so foaming at the mouth, I have to wonder if it isn't some kind of fiendishly clever, ultra-Right, anti-David Horowitz and anti-Iranian propaganda? :confused:
 
Pietro_Mercurios said:
Hanslune said:
Interesting piece of slick propaganda on Iran/Shia conspiracy

http://www.terrorismawareness.org/islamic-mein-kampf/
You must have very different criterion for what constitutes 'slick', compared to mine.

It's so foaming at the mouth, I have to wonder if it isn't some kind of fiendishly clever, ultra-Right, anti-David Horowitz and anti-Iranian propaganda? :confused:

yes i rather had to give up at the "nazi roots of jihad" presentation. :shock:
 
It was mentioned earlier:

www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 505#631505

but has cropped up again:

Iran prepares people for 'messiah miracles'

Government broadcasts series on imminent appearance of apocalyptic Islamic 'Mahdi'

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Posted: January 27, 2007
1:00 a.m. Eastern


© 2007 WorldNetDaily.com


Official Iranian radio has completed broadcasting a lengthy series on the imminent appearance of a messianic figure who will defeat Islam's enemies and impose Islamic Shiite rule over the entire world – even speculating on specific dates the so-called "Mahdi" will be revealed.

English-language transcripts of "The World Toward Illumination" programs can be found on the website of IRIB, a public broadcast arm of Tehran.

"Be joyous my heart, miracles of the Messiah will soon be here," reads a poem used to conclude the first broadcast. "The scent of breaths of the One we know comes from near. Grieve not of sorrow and melancholy, as assured I was … last night that a Savior will come, it's clear."

After the coming of the 12th imam, or Mahdi, "liberal democratic civilization" will be found only in "history museums," explained the program.

"Contrary to the views of western theoreticians, who usually depict an ambiguous and dark future for mankind, Muslim experts believe human history, despite its many ups and downs, has a very auspicious fate," explained the program. "Muslims believe hopes for the realization of such a happy ending for the world are called 'Awaiting Redemption,' and means waiting for man's problems to be solved by the Savior at the end of time. This awaiting influences many, and inspired them with activity and enthusiasm in confronting darkness and oppression for changing the existing situation. …"

This messianic figure will be a direct descendant of Muhammad, according to the broadcasts.

"In short, when he reappears, peace, justice and security will overcome oppression and deceit and one global government, the most perfect ever, will be established," it said.

The Mahdi will appear suddenly, according to the report, in Mecca. Though no one can know the day, Shiites believe, the report actually suggests possibilities in the Muslim calendar.

The Mahdi will lead a cataclysmic battle against a descendant of Muhammad's archenemy, Abu Sofyan, culminating in the cities of Kufa and Najaf. His enemy, though, is destroyed later in Jerusalem.

"Another beautiful moment of the Savior's appearance is the coming down of Prophet Jesus (PBUH) from heaven," says the report. "Hazrat Mahdi receives him courteously and asks him to lead the prayers. But Jesus says you are more qualified for this than me. We read in the book Tazkarat ol-Olia, 'the Mahdi will come with Jesus son of Mary accompanying him.' This indicates that these two great men are (sic) complement each other. Imam Mahdi will be the leader while Prophet Jesus will act as his lieutenant in the struggle against oppression and establishment of justice in the world. Jesus had himself given the tidings of the coming of God's last messenger and will see Mohammad's ideals materialize in the time of the Mahdi."

As WND reported last month, in a greeting to the world's Christians for the coming new year, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said he expects both Jesus and the Mahdi, to return and "wipe away oppression."

"I wish all the Christians a very happy new year and I wish to ask them a question as well," said Ahmadinejad, according to an Iranian Student News Agency report cited by YnetNews.com

"My one question from the Christians is: What would Jesus do if he were present in the world today? What would he do before some of the oppressive powers of the world who are in fact residing in Christian countries? Which powers would he revive and which of them would he destroy?" asked the Iranian leader.

"If Jesus were present today, who would be facing him and who would be following him?"

Ahmadinejad's mystical pre-occupation with the coming of the Mahdi is raising concerns that a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could trigger the kind of global conflagration he envisions will set the stage for the end of the world.

In a videotaped meeting with Ayatollah Javadi-Amoli in Tehran, Ahmadinejad discussed candidly a strange, paranormal experience he had while addressing the United Nations in New York last September.

He recounts how he found himself bathed in light throughout the speech. But this wasn't the light directed at the podium by the U.N. and television cameras. It was, he said, a light from heaven.

According to a transcript of his comments, obtained and translated by Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin, Ahmadinejad wasn't the only one who noticed the unearthly light. One of his aides brought it to his attention.

The Iranian president recalled being told about it by one of his delegation: "When you began with the words 'in the name of Allah,' I saw a light coming, surrounding you and protecting you to the end."

Ahmadinejad agreed that he sensed the same thing.

"On the last day when I was speaking, one of our group told me that when I started to say 'Bismillah Muhammad,' he saw a green light come from around me, and I was placed inside this aura," he says. "I felt it myself. I felt that the atmosphere suddenly changed, and for those 27 or 28 minutes, all the leaders of the world did not blink. When I say they didn't move an eyelid, I'm not exaggerating. They were looking as if a hand was holding them there, and had just opened their eyes – Alhamdulillah!"

Ahmadinejad's "vision" at the U.N. is strangely reminiscent and alarmingly similar to statements he has made about his personal role in ushering in the return of the Shiite Muslim messiah.

He sees his main mission, as he recounted in a Nov. 16 speech in Tehran, as to "pave the path for the glorious reappearance of Imam Mahdi, may Allah hasten his reappearance."

According to Shiites, the 12th imam disappeared as a child in the year 941. When he returns, they believe, he will reign on earth for seven years, before bringing about a final judgment and the end of the world.

Ahmadinejad is urging Iranians to prepare for the coming of the Mahdi by turning the country into a mighty and advanced Islamic society and by avoiding the corruption and excesses of the West.

All Iran is buzzing about the Mahdi, the 12th imam and the role Iran and Ahmadinejad are playing in his anticipated return. There's a new messiah hotline. There are news agencies especially devoted to the latest developments.

"People are anxious to know when and how will He rise; what they must do to receive this worldwide salvation," says Ali Lari, a cleric at the Bright Future Institute in Iran's religious center of Qom. "The timing is not clear, but the conditions are more specific," he adds. "There is a saying: 'When the students are ready, the teacher will come.'"

www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=53964

See an Iraqi Mahdi cult too:
www.forteantimes.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=28923

I have to say the fact that both sides of the fence are both fundies looking forward to the apocalypse (and the Second Coming of Jesus!!) is cause for considerable concern.
 
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