Novichok In Salisbury: Secret Agents & Nerve Agents In Britain

[Ascalon]

Two Russian suspects named:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45421445

Both GRU officers, says the report, which further bolsters the official sanction argument.

But, one wonders, why would Putin be so cack-handed in his approach?

While subtlety was never his thing, surely this kind of blatant offence isn't either?


Is this merely a Surkov ploy in a wider game?

 

[hunck]

I don't think you can say it was that cack-handed. They flew in, did their scouting trip then the actual deed & flew out in 3 days reportedly. They must have come to the fore fairly quickly because of this.

They'd have to be savvy guys with the nature of the toxin, so security forces men would be likely. The fuck-up of course being they killed the wrong person by throwing the bottle away but it could easily have succeeded if the Skripals hadn't been discovered & treated so soon. If say they'd stayed at home instead of going out they could easily have died.

The Litvinenko poisoning was fairly blatant as well but in that case they got their man.

 

[kamalktk]

It is dark, you are likely to be poisoned by a GRU.

 

[hunck]

They must've known they were likely to be identified eventually. It could limit their international travel opportunities in the future but they probably earned a few million out of it.

Of course they could just've been tourists on a weekend away..

 

[Mythopoeika]

They must've known they were likely to be identified eventually. It could limit their international travel opportunities in the future but they probably earned a few million out of it.

Of course they could just've been tourists on a weekend away..

They may even be rewarded with high ranking political positions.

 

[hunck]

They may even be rewarded with high ranking political positions.

Could happen - one of the Litvinenko poisoners is now a Russian MP.

 

[CuriousIdent]

So a number of the things we've been questioning as vague and sketchy at best have now at least been addressed in some part.

Two suspects - Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. Although while presumably these are the names on their passports it is not believed that these are their real names. The government claim they are 'agents' of the GRU, but Moscow (perhaps hardly surprisingly) denies all knowledge of them.

The question I'd be asking Russia is, in that case who are they? You let them fly. Somebody let those passports through for them to fly to the UK. Trace them.

We now have (what is presumably) passport photos of them, CCTV footage of their time in the UK, and enough to at least propose a case for their having being involved.

If Moscow is telling the truth, and these are just two random Russian citizens who somehow managed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, then so be it.

But UK authorities are now able to construct a plausible sequence of events for the pair.

• March 2nd they arrive at Gatwick. They stay at the CityStay Hotel in East London.
• March 3rd they're on CCTV at Salisbury station. It's assumed this trip was a reccie for the following day.
• They return to London that evening but March 4th they're back in Salisbury, captured on CCTV only streets away from the Skripal residence.
• An hour later CCTV has them in the town centre heading in the direction of the train station.
• That evening they are back in London, this time at Heathrow, heading onto a flight to Moscow.

It's certainly a plausible sequence of events. It is now alleged that between points 3 and 4 above they drifted past the Skripal residence sprayed nerve agent on the front door, and left. When the Skripals returned home a while later they came in contact with it, and Novichok began to work its way into their systems.

By the time both suspects were boarding their plane it would probably have been on the news.

The nerve agent itself was dressed up as bottle of Premier Jour Nina Ricci perfume. A small bottle with an applicator, which is presumed to have been used to apply the substance to the door. The bottle, had a modified nozzle, which contained a "significant amount" of Novichok according to Scotland Yard.

It is unknown when or how the bottle was discarded by the pair, and how it got to the next phase of its journey.

Charlie Rowley finds the bottle in a charity bin (we don't know which, where, how...) but thinking his luck is in he pulls it out. He intends to give it to his girlfriend Dawn Sturgess, from nearby Amesbury.

At an unknown point Rowley screws the two parts of the bottle back together, exposing himself unwittingly to a small amount of nerve agent.

On the 30th June the pair are both admitted to hospital. It is assumed that Dawn Sturgess directly applied the substance to her wrists, assuming it (unsurprisingly) to be perfume.

She dies on the 8th July.

Rowley, as we know from above, was discharged on the 20th of July but has since lost his sight in relation to damage done by the nerve agent.

While the Skripals, and Det Sgt Nick Bailey, all recovered after contact with Novichok it is worth remembering that they contacted it most likely from the door of the house, hours after after it was applied.

Charlie Rowley got it on his hands, Dawn Sturgess sprayed it on her wrists, and therefore it is perhaps unsurprising that direct to skin contact in that fashion proved more potent.

But anyway, we do know a lot more details now.

The biggest questions though remain over who these two men actually are and how this came to be. Because proving them to be bonafide foreign agents is going to be very difficult. Proving that anybody within the current Russian government ordered it or signed off on it even more so.

And again we come back to bumbling Boris' careless Putin accusation! We still have no such proof. Theresa May can stand up in Parliament and say that the Russian government are responsible, but that is only an assumption. A pretty dangerous one at that.

It is still far from implausible that this was perpetrated by citizens working for a third party. A grudge from persons unknown relating to something Skripal either did or knows from his time in Russian military intelligence. He was working in Afghanistan in the 80s, who knows what that actually involved. It is still distinctly possible that somebody holding a grudge from that era is responsible for this. An individual who either always was, or at this point now is a private citizen.

To say 'Putin did this' is utterly half-cocked, inflammatory and ill-thought-through. There is simply no proof of it. Nor are we ever likely to gather much in the way of evidence to support it.

To have jumped straight off to attack Russia over this, in this manner, is a gigantic cock-up in my opinion and it will blow up in the British government's faces. It would have been far more sensible to have waited until now, with actual suspects, to ask for Russia's cooperation in trying to find these men. Making dramatic accusations without a shred of proof does more damage than it does good.

 

[XBergMann]

So a number of the things we've been questioning as vague and sketchy at best have now at least been addressed in some part.

Two suspects - Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov. Although while presumably these are the names on their passports it is not believed that these are their real names. The government claim they are 'agents' of the GRU, but Moscow (perhaps hardly surprisingly) denies all knowledge of them.

The question I'd be asking Russia is, in that case who are they? You let them fly. Somebody let those passports through for them to fly to the UK. Trace them.

We now have (what is presumably) passport photos of them, CCTV footage of their time in the UK, and enough to at least propose a case for their having being involved.

If Moscow is telling the truth, and these are just two random Russian citizens who somehow managed to be in the wrong place at the wrong time, then so be it.

But UK authorities are now able to construct a plausible sequence of events for the pair.

• March 2nd they arrive at Gatwick. They stay at the CityStay Hotel in East London.
• March 3rd they're on CCTV at Salisbury station. It's assumed this trip was a reccie for the following day.
• They return to London that evening but March 4th they're back in Salisbury, captured on CCTV only streets away from the Skripal residence.
• An hour later CCTV has them in the town centre heading in the direction of the train station.
• That evening they are back in London, this time at Heathrow, heading onto a flight to Moscow.

It's certainly a plausible sequence of events. It is now alleged that between points 3 and 4 above they drifted past the Skripal residence sprayed nerve agent on the front door, and left. When the Skripals returned home a while later they came in contact with it, and Novichok began to work its way into their systems.

By the time both suspects were boarding their plane it would probably have been on the news.

The nerve agent itself was dressed up as bottle of Premier Jour Nina Ricci perfume. A small bottle with an applicator, which is presumed to have been used to apply the substance to the door. The bottle, had a modified nozzle, which contained a "significant amount" of Novichok according to Scotland Yard.

It is unknown when or how the bottle was discarded by the pair, and how it got to the next phase of its journey.

Charlie Rowley finds the bottle in a charity bin (we don't know which, where, how...) but thinking his luck is in he pulls it out. He intends to give it to his girlfriend Dawn Sturgess, from nearby Amesbury.

At an unknown point Rowley screws the two parts of the bottle back together, exposing himself unwittingly to a small amount of nerve agent.

On the 30th June the pair are both admitted to hospital. It is assumed that Dawn Sturgess directly applied the substance to her wrists, assuming it (unsurprisingly) to be perfume.

She dies on the 8th July.

Rowley, as we know from above, was discharged on the 20th of July but has since lost his sight in relation to damage done by the nerve agent.

While the Skripals, and Det Sgt Nick Bailey, all recovered after contact with Novichok it is worth remembering that they contacted it most likely from the door of the house, hours after after it was applied.

Charlie Rowley got it on his hands, Dawn Sturgess sprayed it on her wrists, and therefore it is perhaps unsurprising that direct to skin contact in that fashion proved more potent.

But anyway, we do know a lot more details now.

The biggest questions though remain over who these two men actually are and how this came to be. Because proving them to be bonafide foreign agents is going to be very difficult. Proving that anybody within the current Russian government ordered it or signed off on it even more so.

And again we come back to bumbling Boris' careless Putin accusation! We still have no such proof. Theresa May can stand up in Parliament and say that the Russian government are responsible, but that is only an assumption. A pretty dangerous one at that.

It is still far from implausible that this was perpetrated by citizens working for a third party. A grudge from persons unknown relating to something Skripal either did or knows from his time in Russian military intelligence. He was working in Afghanistan in the 80s, who knows what that actually involved. It is still distinctly possible that somebody holding a grudge from that era is responsible for this. An individual who either always was, or at this point now is a private citizen.

To say 'Putin did this' is utterly half-cocked, inflammatory and ill-thought-through. There is simply no proof of it. Nor are we ever likely to gather much in the way of evidence to support it.

To have jumped straight off to attack Russia over this, in this manner, is a gigantic cock-up in my opinion and it will blow up in the British government's faces. It would have been far more sensible to have waited until now, with actual suspects, to ask for Russia's cooperation in trying to find these men. Making dramatic accusations without a shred of proof does more damage than it does good.

"Russia's co-operation" you mean like the proposed UN investigation into the downing of MH17 which Russia vetoed.

Russia will never offer co-operation in anything that even has a slight risk of confirming their own malfeasance.

 

[CuriousIdent]

"Russia's co-operation" you mean like the proposed UN investigation into the downing of MH17 which Russia vetoed.

Russia will never offer co-operation in anything that even has a slight risk of confirming their own malfeasance.

Quite probably not. But my point remains the same as it has since we all first started discussing this. There is no proof that this IS a Russian government sanctioned operation.

There is every possibility that it's come about because of somebody with one-time ties to Russian military intelligence, or somebody with a personal axe to grind against the Skripal because of something he did or knew or during his time in Afghanistan or during other operations.

But lashing out at Russia without a shred of concrete proof is never going to get us anywhere. Suggesting that Putin himself personally decided to sign a warrant to have Mr Skripal bumped off is incredibly unlikely.

 

[XBergMann]

Quite probably not. But my point remains the same as it has since we all first started discussing this. There is no proof that this IS a Russian government sanctioned operation.

There is every possibility that it's come about because of somebody with one-time ties to Russian military intelligence, or somebody with a personal axe to grind against the Skripal because of something he did or knew or during his time in Afghanistan or during other operations.

But lashing out at Russia without a shred of concrete proof is never going to get us anywhere. Suggesting that Putin himself personally decided to sign a warrant to have Mr Skripal bumped off is incredibly unlikely.

So you believe that GRU agents carry out "hits" on the territory of other nations without authorization?

 

[maximus otter]

Both the Skripal and Litvinenko poisonings seem to have remarkably amateurish affairs, the offenders in both cases leaving trails of evidence behind them. Compare this with the surgical assassination of Georgi Markov and note the differences.

If a third-rate country like Bulgaria can whack someone in a foreign country and damn nearly have it go undetected, why would Russia employ muppets to do its dirty work?

maximus otter

 

[blessmycottonsocks]

Russia now claiming the CCTV footage was faked:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...as-no-reason-to-investigate-uk-named-suspects

 

[hunck]

Both the Skripal and Litvinenko poisonings seem to have remarkably amateurish affairs, the offenders in both cases leaving trails of evidence behind them. Compare this with the surgical assassination of Georgi Markov and note the differences.

If a third-rate country like Bulgaria can whack someone in a foreign country and damn nearly have it go undetected, why would Russia employ muppets to do its dirty work?

maximus otter

It didn't go "damn nearly undetected". In his autopsy, Dr Bernard Riley, a forensic pathologist, discovered a spherical metal pellet the size of a pin-head containing ricin embedded in Markov's leg.

A possible perpetrator was named as Francisco Gullino. He was still alive & travelling freely in Europe in 2006.

 

[maximus otter]

It didn't go "damn nearly undetected". In his autopsy, Dr Bernard Riley, a forensic pathologist, discovered a spherical metal pellet the size of a pin-head containing ricin embedded in Markov's leg.

Had the assailant not dropped the brolly, Markov might well not have remarked on the slight sting to his leg. His death would have been ascribed to natural causes and an autopsy might not even have been performed.

Even if Markov had been PM-ed, the pathologist would have been unlikely to investigate a tiny lesion on his leg if cause of death seemed to be heart disease or something similarly run-of-the-mill.

maximus otter

 

[hunck]

Had the assailant not dropped the brolly, Markov might well not have remarked on the slight sting to his leg. His death would have been ascribed to natural causes and an autopsy might not even have been performed.

Even if Markov had been PM-ed, the pathologist would have been unlikely to investigate a tiny lesion on his leg if cause of death seemed to be heart disease or something similarly run-of-the-mill.

maximus otter

If if if. He was aware of the 'sting' on his leg which later developed into a pimple. He was admitted to hospital the same day & told them that he suspected poison.

The fact he was a regime dissident would give rise to suspicions as well.

 

[CuriousIdent]

So you believe that GRU agents carry out "hits" on the territory of other nations without authorization?

It depends whether they *are* GRU agents. Seriously, for all we know they were actually under the employ of an organised crime boss. Somebody Skripal pissed off.

Or ex-military doing a favour for a former higher ranking officer, who had their own personal reason for wishing to eliminate Skripal?

My point is that there really could be a plethora of other plausible reasons. My gut says that if this really was the Russian GRU then Skripal would have simply disappeared, never to be seen again.

An orchestrated poisoning like this (especially given that it had a margin for not causing a fatality) stinks of somebody trying to send a message. And that says Organised Crime more than State Sponsored killing to me.

 

[kamalktk]

It depends whether they *are* GRU agents. Seriously, for all we know they were actually under the employ of an organised crime boss. Somebody Skripal pissed off.

Or ex-military doing a favour for a former higher ranking officer, who had their own personal reason for wishing to eliminate Skripal?

My point is that there really could be a plethora of other plausible reasons. My gut says that if this really was the Russian GRU then Skripal would have simply disappeared, never to be seen again.

An orchestrated poisoning like this (especially given that it had a margin for not causing a fatality) stinks of somebody trying to send a message. And that says Organised Crime more than State Sponsored killing to me.

Litvinenko wasn't disappeared, and by the logic you posted I'd be quite concerned that organized crime has access to Polonium.

Also there's the problem of the conflation of organized crime and the state in Russia.

 

[Mythopoeika]

Both the Skripal and Litvinenko poisonings seem to have remarkably amateurish affairs, the offenders in both cases leaving trails of evidence behind them. Compare this with the surgical assassination of Georgi Markov and note the differences.

If a third-rate country like Bulgaria can whack someone in a foreign country and damn nearly have it go undetected, why would Russia employ muppets to do its dirty work?

maximus otter

I'm thinking they sub-contract work out to people who are pretty sloppy.

 

[EnolaGaia]

I'm still wondering whether the current version of the alleged storyline is accurate.

Although the OPCW has now verified the samples from the first and second incidents were both Novichok agents, they did not or could not verify whether the samples from the two incidents were from the same batch of Novichok agents.

 

[ramonmercado]

I'm still wondering whether the current version of the alleged storyline is accurate.

Although the OPCW has now verified the samples from the first and second incidents were both Novichok agents, they did not or could not verify whether the samples from the two incidents were from the same batch of Novichok agents.

And bins in the local park are only emptied once a year.

 

[Coal]

I'm still wondering whether the current version of the alleged storyline is accurate.

Although the OPCW has now verified the samples from the first and second incidents were both Novichok agents, they did not or could not verify whether the samples from the two incidents were from the same batch of Novichok agents.

Very little is being said about the second victims. They weren't exactly upstanding members of the community, both had records for drug offences, (not that this excuses what was visited upon them), which may be worth a little more investigation.

 

[Cochise]

Still don't believe it. Nor does anyone else I have spoken to - in fact at the hotel I was staying in yesterday when the story was all over the front pages people were laughing at it. (Do they think we are stupid?' was the typical response)

Now, it _may_ be a true story - but the government's problem is twofold - first, the story is full of inconsistencies (as such plots always are and demonstrably, if it was a plot, things did not go as planned) and second, no-one I know, left wing or right wing, believes this government does anything without an ulterior motive. Which is maybe unfair, but it is the ultimate consequence of Blair's lies and the refusal of Parliament to punish him - a simple ban from public office would I think have satisfied the public. Basically, it is obvious that whatever the official stance, Parliament now condones - by refusing to call it out - lying at all levels.

It doesn't help that new announcements always coincide when May is on the point of being kicked out by the other Conservatives, many of whom would feel it unacceptable to move against her when there is a so-called threat to national security.

Myself, I think there was an accidental leak from Porton Down (not necessarily of weapons grade 'novichock') - which of course would cause outrage, so the government is desperate to make it look like an enemy action. In support of which I would adduce the effort that was made to prevent the Skripals talking to their relatives in Russia, and the fact that they seem to have suffered no long-term effects of this apparently very effective weapon - unlike the poor people who accidentally stumbled on it. Although even then they seem to have needed huge exposure to do the damage.

Obviously if you need a cover story you can persuade (or effectively blackmail) the Skripals into supporting it, given their position.

Today it has been replaced on the front pages by Bonking Boris. In fact it has largely disappeared form the news pages. Amazing because if the story was actually true it would be a major international incident potentially leading to war. Fortunately Putin - rather like the rest of us - finds it more funny than threatening. It's very sad of course for the two unfortunates actually dead / dying who found the lost substance.

I would suggest you are almost better off with Putin as your enemy than May. She doesn't care what she breaks to get her own way.

 

[CuriousIdent]

Litvinenko wasn't disappeared, and by the logic you posted I'd be quite concerned that organized crime has access to Polonium.

Also there's the problem of the conflation of organized crime and the state in Russia.

He wasn't, no. But I think that it would be a little presumptive of us to compare the two.

Litvinenko had written and had published a book which outwardly criticised Putin and theorised the machinations which brought him to power. He pissed off a lot of important people by doing that. Not just the Premier, but a lot of high ranking people who could have given the order.

And yes, at that point getting access to weapons grade radioactive material would have not been wholly implausible, depending on who exactly that was.

To our knowledge though, we don't have that with Skripal. We do not have a clear motive established for why somebody within the Russian government, or Russian military intelligence, *suddenly* decided that after all this time they should bump off a former agent who defected. A man who seemingly had retired to a life not making a fuss in a quiet Salisbury housing estate.

That's perhaps the biggest mystery behind this whole thing. He's been in the Country for well over a decade. Why now? What prompted this?

I do concede however that the alleged blurring of lines between certain parts of the Russian government and organised crime is a possibility. But I suppose the wider issue is that that will not, and cannot, be officially acknowledged on the International Stage.

No matter how 'dodgy' a Country may be unless you can prove they have broken international Law then the UK government still have to (or at least should) continue to conduct themselves professionally and officially until the point if/where some kind of unilateral action from ally nations is required to be taken against them.

We have not been doing this. Largely because we appointed a clown as Foreign Secretary for a while.

 

[CuriousIdent]

And bins in the local park are only emptied once a year.

That's another thing which doesn't quite sit right with me. I'm relatively sure that early on we were told that the 'bottle of nerve agent' was discarded in a bin. That was the working theory. That it hadn't been found because the bin had been emptied?

Well now we know this to false. We now know it to have been disguised as perfume, and that bottle also resulted in one further fatality and a blinding of the man who found it.

But Charlie Rowley supposedly 'found' it in a charity bin. We don't know which bin. We don't know when. We don't know how it got there. Presumably he fished it out of there thinking his luck was in, before it actually got to the charity shop which it had been intended for.

We might assume that one of these two suspects left the doorstep of the Skripal residence with bottle still on them, and maybe discarded into a charity bin as they went back into Salisbury town centre. But that also would have potentially mean that the radius of plausible contamination was far wider than the Police had thought at the time.

 

[CuriousIdent]

Very little is being said about the second victims. They weren't exactly upstanding members of the community, both had records for drug offences, (not that this excuses what was visited upon them), which may be worth a little more investigation.

Yes. Although I don't necessarily think that their criminal records which are directly related to any of what has happened here. I think that's pure misfortune.

What I do wonder though is more in relation to Charlie Rowley's charity bin scrumping. Because it does seem highly unusual that all these months later the bottle *suddenly* turns up in a charity bin. When did it get there?

I mean, sure I can understand that charity collection bins may not get collected anywhere as near as often as waste bins do, but when did he fish it out of there? Has it been sitting in his house as a gift for a later point? Or did he just find it that day?

We are still no clearer of the perfume bottle whereabouts for like 2 months.

 

[hunck]

Myself, I think there was an accidental leak from Porton Down (not necessarily of weapons grade 'novichock') - which of course would cause outrage, so the government is desperate to make it look like an enemy action. In support of which I would adduce the effort that was made to prevent the Skripals talking to their relatives in Russia, and the fact that they seem to have suffered no long-term effects of this apparently very effective weapon - unlike the poor people who accidentally stumbled on it. Although even then they seem to have needed huge exposure to do the damage.

What goes against this theory is the fact that all European allies, even the US, have gone along with the UK position. Either

Our intelligence people have constructed a convincing enough false picture for everyone to go along with it.

They haven't really looked at it in depth but are prepared to go along with it for the sake of unity.

The pieces when put together point to a probable conclusion.

Do you think either of the first two are likely?

If the two men were really nothing to do with it & just guys on a weekend away don't you think they would've come forward by now? Instead they seem to have disappeared.

As to the Skripals, Yulia certainly did talk to her cousin in Russia - she wasn't stopped from that, & we don't know what their current health is like or the long term consequences.

The fact [assuming they're not currently being held against their will] that they haven't wanted to meet with Russian officials says something.

 

[hunck]

On the subject of which:

The United States has announced it will impose restrictions on the export of sensitive technology to Russia because of its use of a nerve agent in the attempted murder of a former Russian spy and his daughter in Britain.

The state department said the new sanctions would come into effect on 22 August and would be followed by much tougher measures if Russia does not take “remedial action” within 90 days.

Do any of our US friends know whether these started on 22nd August or has it quietly slipped off the table?

 

[Analogue Boy]

Not sinister at all.
GRU

Really....?

 

[Analogue Boy]

That's another thing which doesn't quite sit right with me. I'm relatively sure that early on we were told that the 'bottle of nerve agent' was discarded in a bin. That was the working theory. That it hadn't been found because the bin had been emptied?

Well now we know this to false. We now know it to have been disguised as perfume, and that bottle also resulted in one further fatality and a blinding of the man who found it.

But Charlie Rowley supposedly 'found' it in a charity bin. We don't know which bin. We don't know when. We don't know how it got there. Presumably he fished it out of there thinking his luck was in, before it actually got to the charity shop which it had been intended for.

We might assume that one of these two suspects left the doorstep of the Skripal residence with bottle still on them, and maybe discarded into a charity bin as they went back into Salisbury town centre. But that also would have potentially mean that the radius of plausible contamination was far wider than the Police had thought at the time.

I cannot contain my disappointment it was Nina Ricci and not Dior ‘Poison’ perfume.
This, for me, totally proves it was Mossad as they, we are told, have no sense of irony.

 

[hunck]

Slight tangent but there certainly seem to be a lot of unpopular Russians in the UK although getting fewer..

Murdered Russian exile survived earlier poisoning attempt, police believe

Detectives investigating the murder of a Russian exile in London believe he was previously the target of a poisoning attempt carried out by two mysterious men from Moscow who visited him in a Bristol hotel room.

Nikolai Glushkov, a friend of the late oligarch Boris Berezovsky and a prominent Kremlin critic, was found dead in March at his home in New Malden, south-west London. He had been strangled.