And very much doubt a intelligent 45 year old would keep quiet
if she had run off once she saw the amount of time effort and cost
expanded on the serch, she would have contacted the police,
Hmmm. I take your point, although intelligence is in short supply amongst 45 year olds, just as with every other age group. We shouldn't assume!
Joking apart, there are thousands of people who go missing every year, and many who simply disappear. However, those who disappear are generally downwardly mobile: fleeing a bad domestic situation and ending up on the streets or, at best, in the "cash, no questions asked" section of the economy.
If, for the sake of argument, this lady had been in a difficult domestic situation, being 45, reasonably affluent, and with 2 children, then 3 things:
- There would normally be some history of reports (formal or otherwise) of her difficulties at home.
- She would almost certainly have the wherewithal to stay with a friend, or relative, or, if all else failed, go to a refuge. She does not appear to be the type of person who would simply run away and end up on the streets.
- So, if she did deliberately "disappear" the obvious explanation would be something along the lines of an affair. Affluent and aspirational people seldom leave their spouses to step down a socioeconomic bracket, so she would need to continue with her employment, her banking, her National Insurance, her passport, driving licence, etc. People who remain part of mainstream society and wish to remain so cannot "disappear" without constructing a complete new identity, which is costly and complex.
A person might fake their disappearance for any of a number of reasons, such as fear, guilt, romance, mental illness, etc. They might not think through the consequences in terms of the police search and media coverage. Someone daft enough to do it might indeed be too daft to admit it when they see the media storm. One possibility among many is that she is now somewhere safe, but in a state of blind panic.
She may have fallen in the river, although I have personally been sceptical about that since the start.
She may well have been abducted by a stranger, but such abductions are rare, and the target, time and place were not optimal for a stranger to strike. For example, Jack the Ripper, Peter Sutcliffe, and Fred West all killed strangers. They didn't generally choose mature middle class women who would quickly be missed, and didn't take them when they were walking their dogs some distance from the public road.
Statistically, most abductions and murders are committed by someone known to the victim. That tends to be a current partner, former partner, someone they are having an affair with, a colleague or acquaintance who is obsessed with them, or someone who has a vested interest in their demise. I think it is
more or less in this order of likelihood.
In order to abduct this person from that location, someone would either have to immobilise and silence her (and deal with the dog) or have her trust. Trust would seem more likely than the force option. A common scenario, for example, is the meeting to clear the air or discuss something important, which leads the victim to put themselves in harm's way.
If the police suspected her partner, then by now I think we would be hearing about him being formally questioned.
The detail posted above by
@PeteS, if correct, is very interesting. A change of morning routine on the day of her disappearance?
For the avoidance of doubt: I am neither accusing nor suggesting. I am merely discussing the common scenarios when someone goes missing, and noticing some details of this case that appear potentially suggestive. We will know the truth if and when she is found, whether alive or, sadly, not.
