Asteroid Near-Misses (AKA: Holy Shit! We're All Going to Die)

rynner2

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Nasa to launch probe to investigate 'Armageddon' asteroid
The asteroid will pass between Earth and the moon in 2135
Samuel Osborne

[Video shows how Osiris-Rex probe will work.]

Nasa is planning to launch a probe to collect rock samples from an asteroid it fears could one day hit the Earth.
The asteroid, named Bennu, can be seen from Earth as it crosses our orbit every six years.

Bennu, which is around 500 metres in diameter at its equator and travels around the sun at 63,000mph, will pass between Earth and the moon in 2135.
“That 2135 fly-by is going to tweak Bennu’s orbit, potentially putting it on course for the Earth later that century,” Dante Lauretta, professor of planetary science at Arizona University, told The Sunday Times.
“It may be destined to cause immense suffering and death,” he added.

Mr Lauretta, Nasa's principal investigator in charge of the Osiris-Rex probe mission to Bennu, launching in September, said the probe will map the asteroid, pick up some rock samples and then head back to Earth. He said information on the asteroid's size, mass and composition could be vital data for future generations.

Osiris-Rex will arrive at Bennu in 2018 and will spend a year surveying the asteroid's chemical makeup, mineralogy and geologic history. Information gathered during the observation will help scientists understand how its course is affected by absorbing and radiating sunlight as heat.

The probe will then take a sample from the asteroid before heading back to Earth for 2023.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nasa-probe-asteroid-armageddon-bennu-space-a7164901.html

I don't think I shall lose much sleep over what may happen after 2135!

 

INT21

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..Dante Lauretta, professor of planetary science at Arizona University, told The Sunday Times.
“It may be destined to cause immense suffering and death,” he added...

Nominative determinism ?

INT21
 

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Never fear: NASA & FEMA are prepared!

Incoming! How NASA and FEMA Would Respond to an Asteroid Threat
By Sarah Lewin, Staff Writer | November 4, 2016 08:22 pm ET

It's a scary scenario: an asteroid headed for Earth, just four years away from slamming into our home planet. It may be too short a span to plan an asteroid-deflection mission, but it's long enough to present very different challenges from those of a more typical crisis, like a hurricane or earthquake.

NASA and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) came together Oct. 25 to plan a response to such a hypothetical event. In a "tabletop exercise," a kind of ongoing simulation, the two agencies tested how they would work together to evaluate the threat, prevent panic and protect as many people as possible from the deadly collision.

"It's not a matter of if, but when, we will deal with such a situation," Thomas Zurbuchen, NASA's Science Mission Directorate's new associate administrator, said in a statement. "But unlike any other time in our history, we now have the ability to respond to an impact threat through continued observations, predictions, response planning and mitigation." [In Images: Potentially Dangerous Near-Earth Asteroids]

The exercise, held in El Segundo, California, brought together representatives from NASA, FEMA, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the Department of Energy's national laboratories, the Air Force and the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services, JPL officials said in the statement.

It was the third such exercise; previous ones had allowed for a deflection mission, but in this simulation, there was too little time for that type of response.

"It is critical to exercise these kinds of low-probability but high-consequence disaster scenarios," FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate said in the statement. "By working through our emergency response plans now, we will be better prepared if and when we need to respond to such an event."

The asteroid in this test scenario appeared to be between 300 and 800 feet (100 to 250 meters) long in the first simulated measurements the participants were given. At first, the probability of a 2020 impact was only 2 percent, but as the group continued to simulate tracking it over time and the fictional months went by, the impact probability rose to 65 percent — and then 100 percent, in May 2017. By November of that year, in the scenario, they found that it would hit across Southern California or nearby in the Pacific Ocean. ...

http://www.space.com/34629-nasa-fem..._medium=social&utm_campaign=2016twitterdlvrit
 
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INT21

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Don't worry, you will know if a big one hits.

And do you really want to know weeks in advance that you are to be wiped out by a high speed rock ?

INT21
 

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Don't worry, you will know if a big one hits.

And do you really want to know weeks in advance that you are to be wiped out by a high speed rock ?

INT21
Yes. So I could totally get wasted and have a bloody good time before I die.
 

Spudrick68

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There would be orgies everywhere if we knew in advance!
 

INT21

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And after all the orgies, raping, killing and settling of old scores, there is an announcement...

'It's ok folks, it's gonna miss'.

Ooops.

INT21
 

rynner2

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Earth is overdue for collision with 'dinosaur-killer' asteroid, Nasa warns
Our planet is currently virtually defenceless against a strike by such a large object
Jon Sharman

Planet Earth is effectively defenceless in the face of a “dinosaur-killer” asteroid strike, a Nasa scientist has warned.
And the planet is overdue for an extinction-level event involving a giant space object – such as an asteroid or comet – following a number of close encounters over the last 20 years, Dr Joseph Nuth said.

Large objects from outer space that could cause mass extinctions have tended to hit Earth about 50 to 60 million years apart. The dinosaurs were wiped out 66 million years ago by an asteroid that struck what is now the Gulf of Mexico.

Dr Nuth, speaking at Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Centre in San Francisco, said that if a potentially dangerous object was on a crash-course with our planet “there’s not a hell of a lot we can do about it at the moment”, according to The Guardian.
He said: “They are the extinction-level events, things like dinosaur killers, they’re 50 to 60 million years apart, essentially. You could say, of course, we’re due.”

Earth had a “close encounter” with a comet in 1996 and again in 2014, when one passed “within cosmic spitting distance of Mars”, he said.
Scientists had only 22 months’ warning time for the second pass, less than half the time currently needed to get a craft capable of deflecting such an object into space, Dr Nuth said.

Dr Nuth said he had recommended Nasa build an interceptor craft and keep it in storage in order to cut down on the time it takes to organise such a mission.

Dr Cathy Plesko, of Los Alamos National Laboratory, told the Guardian that humans could deflect an Earth-bound asteroid or comet with either a nuclear warhead or a “kinetic impactor, which is basically a giant cannonball”.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/s...asteroid-comet-extinction-event-a7481161.html
 

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  1. INDYTech
Nasa to send asteroid away from Earth by firing a bullet at it in attempt to save the Earth from future strikes
Artist concept of NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft / NASA/JHUAP
The missile will be about the size of a fridge
Andrew Griffin

Nasa is going to fire a bullet at an asteroid in an attempt to save the Earth.

The agency has laid out the plans for its DART mission – where it will send a space capsule the size of a fridge towards an asteroid to shoot it off course. For now, the mission is just a test, but in the future it could be used to save Earth from what scientists say is an underappreciated threat from asteroids.

The mission has now been approved by Nasa and will move into the preliminary design phase, getting ready for testing in a few years.
“DART would be NASA’s first mission to demonstrate what’s known as the kinetic impactor technique – striking the asteroid to shift its orbit – to defend against a potential future asteroid impact,” said Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “This approval step advances the project toward an historic test with a non-threatening small asteroid.”

DART's target is an asteroid that will pass by Earth in 2022, and come back two years later. More specifically, it's actually two asteroids: a binary system called Didymos B made up of a larger and a smaller rock.
It's the smaller one that Nasa will try and knock off course. But by using a binary system, scientists will be able to check with more accuracy how well their test has worked.

etc...

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-s...impact-protect-earth-armageddon-a7829651.html
 

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Similarly, what if there's some kind of billiards effect and the small asteroid which NASA shoots at goes on to hit a larger asteroid which knocks an even larger one off course ..... which then heads straight for Earth? ;)
 

rynner2

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Similarly, what if there's some kind of billiards effect and the small asteroid which NASA shoots at goes on to hit a larger asteroid which knocks an even larger one off course ..... which then heads straight for Earth? ;)
You've been watching too much Red Dwarf!
 

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Here's a world map illustrating known small asteroid strikes based on a 2014 NASA compilation covering two decades' worth of data.

'Asteroid Strikes': The data this map is based on was released in November 2014 by Nasa's Near-Earth Object Observation Program. It shows the global distribution of of small asteroid strikes, ranging in size from 3.5ft to 65.5ft, between 1994 and 2013. The yellow dots are daytime strikes, the blue dots are night strikes. These vary in size by level of impact (measured in joules).
AsteroidStrikes-WorldMap.jpg


SOURCE: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/t...aps-reveal-global-activity-minute-detail.html
 

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Here's a big - astronomical - example of pareidolia - an asteroid on whose close pass in 2015 was seen by some as resembling a skull. This asteroid will swoop by earth again in late 2018.

Haunted Again: Skull-Faced 'Halloween Asteroid' Returns in 2018
Astronomers will soon get another look at the big, ghoulishly weird space rock that buzzed Earth on Halloween three years ago. ...

The roughly 2,100-foot-wide (640 meters) Halloween asteroid 2015 TB145 gave Earth a close shave on Oct. 31, 2015, coming within just 300,000 miles (480,000 kilometers) of our planet. (For perspective, the moon orbits at an average distance of about 239,000 miles, or 384,600 km.)

A Halloween flyby was quite appropriate, it turned out: Observations made at the time by a variety of instruments revealed that 2015 TB145 looks like an enormous skull, at least from some angles. ...
FULL STORY (with observational imagery and artist's conception):

https://www.livescience.com/61257-skull-asteroid-returns-2018.html
 

ramonmercado

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Doomed I tell ya


There’s a different kind of Halloween sequel in the works, and it’s coming soon to the skies near Earth.

A skull-like asteroid that passed Earth in October 2015 is coming back for another visit in early November. Officially named 2015 TB145, the asteroid has been called The Great Pumpkin by NASA because of its Halloween flyby three years ago.

2015 TB145 has also been described as a “death comet” because it’s believed to be a dead comet and because of its skull shape, which was picked up on radar images from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico: ...

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...cid=newsltushpmgnews__TheMorningEmail__110118
 

ramonmercado

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A live asteroid strike exercise.

For the first time, ESA will cover a major international asteroid impact exercise live via social media, highlighting the the actions that might be taken by scientists, space agencies and civil protection organisations.

Every two years, asteroid experts from across the globe come together to simulate a fictional but plausible imminent asteroid impact on Earth. During the week-long scenario, participants – playing roles such as 'national government', 'space agency', 'astronomer' and 'civil protection office' – don't know how the situation will evolve from one day to the next, and must make plans based on the daily updates they are given.

For the first time, ESA will cover progress of the hypothetical impact scenario from 29 April to 3 May live via social media, primarily via the @esaoperations Twitter channel.

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-day-asteroid.html
 
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Jim

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A live asteroid strike exercise.

For the first time, ESA will cover a major international asteroid impact exercise live via social media, highlighting the the actions that might be taken by scientists, space agencies and civil protection organisations.

Every two years, asteroid experts from across the globe come together to simulate a fictional but plausible imminent asteroid impact on Earth. During the week-long scenario, participants – playing roles such as 'national government', 'space agency', 'astronomer' and 'civil protection office' – don't know how the situation will evolve from one day to the next, and must make plans based on the daily updates they are given.

For the first time, ESA will cover progress of the hypothetical impact scenario from 29 April to 3 May live via social media, primarily via the @esaoperations Twitter channel.

https://phys.org/news/2019-04-day-asteroid.html
I would think numerous factors are involved. Advanced detection time to spot the asteroid (comet, planetoid, etc). Size - speed -trajectory of the object and available technologies for either neutralizing or redirecting it into a safe orbit. A solid treat assessment with follow-up action sounds like some good due diligence, kudos to ESA.
 

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Something else to worry about.... At https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/26/8931776/near-earth-asteroid-tracking

A “city-killing” asteroid just zipped by Earth. Why didn’t we see it coming?
NASA tracks big asteroids. Small ones — which can still do damage — are harder to spot.
By Kelsey Piper Jul 26, 2019, 2:40pm EDT

On Thursday, an asteroid called 2019 OK, traveling at almost 15 miles a second, came unusually close to impacting Earth. The asteroid passed by about 43,500 miles away — closer to Earth than our moon is. It was one of the closest known approaches of an asteroid to Earth since we started closely tracking the movements of objects in space.

If you had binoculars and knew exactly where to look, you could have briefly seen 2019 OK in the sky.
NASA tracks large asteroids in order to identify any that might be on a threatening trajectory toward Earth. But 2019 OK was first seen a few days ago, and was only definitively identified as an asteroid yesterday — hours before it passed right by us.
How’d they miss it? Well, while 2019 OK could have done a lot of damage if we’d gotten very unlucky — as Swinburne University astronomer Alan Duffy told the Sydney Morning-Herald, the asteroid would have struck Earth with “over 30 times the energy of the atomic blast at Hiroshima” — it’s not actually all that big.

The asteroid is estimated to be “between 187 feet and 427 feet in diameter.” The largest passenger aircraft in service today (the Airbus A380-800) is about 240 feet long, so spotting this asteroid would have been a bit like spotting a single big commercial jet in the vast expanse of space — traveling at 15 miles a second and coming toward us directly from the sun, which makes spotting it more difficult.

Even a small asteroid like 2019 OK could potentially do a lot of damage if it’d hit Earth, rather than missing by 43,500 miles, but for it to be, as lots of outlets called it, a “city killer”asteroid, we would have needed several more unlikely things to go wrong. A 45,000-mile near-miss is very close compared to how vast space is, but it’s still a fair bit — Earth itself is about 8,000 miles across. About 0.5 percent of asteroids that come this close or closer will actually hit us...........
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/7/26/8931776/near-earth-asteroid-tracking
 

INT21

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Timble2,

If you go look on the Spaceweather.com site you will find a section that has updated info on known approaches.

The distances are expressed in 'LD' (Lunar Distance).

So if we call it 250,000 miles, a miss of 0.5 LD means that it will (should) miss by 125,000 miles.

Here is an example..
Name 2019 OK
date 2019-Jul-25
distance to miss by 0.2 LD (50,000 Miles).


24.5
79​

Don't worry about this one, it's gone.

Click on the blue link for more information than you may wish to know.

Such as there are 1,983 potentially hazardous objects out there at the moment.
 
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Sid

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Timble2,

If you go look on the Spaceweather.com site you will find a section that has updated info on known approaches.

The distances are expressed in 'LD' (Lunar Distance).

So if we call it 250,000 miles, a miss of 0.5 LD means that it will (should) miss by 125,000 miles.

Here is an example..
Name 2019 OK
date 2019-Jul-25
distance to miss by 0.2 LD (50,000 Miles).


24.5
79​

Don't worry about this one, it's gone.

Click on the blue link for more information than you may wish to know.

Such as there are 1,983 potentially hazardous objects out there at the moment.
re: 'Notable & Unusual Meteorites (Meteors That Landed / Impacted).' I submitted my report on the one I witnessed to 'Martin Reece.' Still have the letter somewhere in my folder. He had his Secretary reply saying "very interesting!"
That Asteroid was indeed very large, and pear shaped, like a huge and highly colourful glowing piece of red hot coke.
 

Mythopoeika

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2019 OK was/is bigger than Tunguska! Scary stuff.
 

ramonmercado

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We're all doomed again, there's still time to deflect it so that it hits Cromer though.

The American space agency is keeping a close eye on a massive asteroid that could eventually smash into Earth.

The asteroid, known as JF1 is designated a ‘near-Earth object’ (NEO) meaning it orbits the sun and comes close enough to our planet to cause concern.

‘Some asteroids and comets follow orbital paths that take them much closer to the Sun and therefore Earth – than usual,’ Nasa explained. ‘If a comet’s or asteroid’s approach brings it to within 1.3 astronomical units of the Sun, we call it a Near-Earth object.’ Experts believe that JF1 measures around 130 meters in diameter – and believe it’s about the size of the Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt.

The asteroid JF1 was first discovered back in 2009 and Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been watching it for the last decade. The space agency has tasked its automated asteroid watching system – known as Sentry – with keeping an eye on it. ‘Sentry is a highly automated collision monitoring system that continually scans the most current asteroid catalogue for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100 years,’ Nasa said. They believe, were it to strike Earth, it would be the equivalent to detonating 230 kilotonnes of TNT. That kind of a detonation would dwarf the force of the Hiroshima atomic bomb in 1945, which exploded with the force of 15 kilotonnes of TNT.


Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/14/nasa...article.desktop.share.top.twitter?ito=cbshare
 
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