This analyst on Twitter has some good takes - nr.3 would be a great plot twist:
Velina Tchakarova
@vtchakarova
️A very long update on #Prigozhin's death news.
There are three plausible scenarios regarding Prigozhin's abrupt demise in the fog of misinformation and disinformation. The most widely accepted and circulated perspective ties it to Putin's strategic retaliation. If this turns out to be the case, I will publicly admit my error, especially given that I've consistently advocated the view that Prigozhin's rebellion was orchestrated. Similarly, I admitted my error in my assessment back in February, when I, despite being correct on the timing of the war, had wrongfully outlined that Russia would only launch a limited military operation in the South and East of Ukraine instead of full-scale war. What are the three key scenarios as events are unfolding?
1. Putin's Power Play: Most analysts lean towards the idea that Putin strategically sought to dismantle the leadership of the Wagner PMC. Historical instances have made it evident that Putin possesses little to no tolerance for political treachery or betrayal. The timing of the formal removal of Surovikin as the head of Russia's Aerospace Forces could hint that Putin purposefully timed a devastating plane crash to coincide with Prigozhin's journey. Such a move would send a stark warning to any political adversaries contemplating an uprising or coup, especially as Putin readies for his upcoming presidential campaign. It's worth noting that even though Prigozhin has consistently been loyal to Putin and showed no intent of vying for his position, his divulgence about the ongoing Ukrainian war and Russia's internal bureaucratic shortcomings might have been the catalyst for this dramatic retaliatory act. Prigozhin turned from Putin's liability to a very high risk due to his behavior. This scenario is currently the most widely accepted, given the limited information available, and Russia's proclivity for misinformation only adds to the obscurity.
2. Retaliation by the Military Faction: This scenario suggests that Prigozhin might have been targeted by the very military faction whose secrets he unveiled on the day of his mutiny. Such an act could herald the beginning of a broader cleansing, initiated not necessarily under Putin's auspices but by those Prigozhin previously challenged. But speculation also runs rife that certain military factions are disillusioned with Putin's dealings with prominent figures like Gerasimov and Shoigu. There's a brewing contention over who will inherit Prigozhin's expansive business operations across Africa and the Middle East. In this turbulent scenario, the recent appearance of Gen. Andrey Averyanov, the head GRU, at high-profile Russia-Africa meetings, make the situation even more intricate. Furthermore, prominent figures like Yevkurov, Shoigu's deputy, along with 13 other generals, have mysteriously vanished for the last months. Yevkurov only reappeared yesterday on a trip to Libya to visit Haftar - a playground for Wagner activities in the past. As the aftermath unfolds, the true controllers of Prigozhin's business ventures, be it Putin's siloviki or MoD's mercenary forces, will emerge as crucial indicators. Rumors abound that while Putin might have sway over Shoigu, the Russian army remains out of both their grasps due to the mood by the military hawks requires a careful consideration. Gen Gerassimov hasn't been seen publicly since the beginning of July. Given this dynamic, the ensuing power struggle over control of Wagner's operations post-Prigozhin will be crucial to observe.
3. Strategic Misdirection: Another compelling narrative surrounds Prigozhin's recent undertakings, such as the hybrid operation against Poland and the Baltic States via Belarus and his engagements in Africa after the coup in Niger which suited Putin's geopolitical interests. The fact that the Wagner PMC operates as a state-backed entity rather than a private mercenary group fuels speculation that
Prigozhin's death might be a fabrication. A recent video that surfaced showed Prigozhin, seemingly in Africa's Sahel region. Given Rosaviatia's announcement of the plane crash and Russia's stranglehold over news distribution, this could well be an intricate ploy, possibly to expose internal conspirators against Putin, particularlya in the military and security apparatus. This lends credibility to the notion that Prigozhin's apparent demise might be a psychological operation, a tactic he's infamously employed elsewhere. The constant movements of Prigozhin and his team between Russia and foreign lands without any restrictions over the recent months as well as the announcement that the whole leadership was on a single place further appear suspicious. However, this is the least likely scenario. (You see last footage of Prigozhin from August 21 via CNN) #Foresight #Velsig #geopolitics #WagnerPMC
