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The Psychics Thread

And what do you know.. 2 passages from the Mail's account that didn't get a mention on the BBC's version (which was the second most read news item yesterday)

"The results were not a total failure for the psychics. The one positive result managed by Miss Whitton was however awarded an eight out of ten for accuracy by the sitter.
In his Guardian column, Professor French reported the sitter as saying: 'She mentioned very specifically something I had been actively thinking about during the session, she hit it right on the dot, name and everything. That shocked me a bit.
'Also, the South America comment struck me – I'm planning a trip there.' "

and

"Subsequent to the this article's initial publication Ms Whitton contacted MailOnline to complain that various outlets covering the story had failed to mention that one of her sitters was very surprised to receive an accurate reading during the experiment.
'Why do the skeptics and non-believers omit the very significant details I am trying to prove it seems one sided to me if they are only going to comment on their own disbeliefs without telling the true facts,' she said in an email."
 
But surely in an experiment like that there are bound to be some 'bang on target' hits?
The point is whether they are statistically significant or not.
When the experimenters say that the psychics performed no better than chance, it implies that people just guessing, rather than using psychic powers, would produce approximately the same quantity of impressively accurate hits.
 
crystophalax said:
When the experimenters say that the psychics performed no better than chance, it implies that people just guessing, rather than using psychic powers, would produce approximately the same quantity of impressively accurate hits.
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From the beeb article:
These five volunteers were then asked to try to identify themselves from these psychic readings - with a success rate of only one in five.
This was a result that was "entirely consistent with the operation of chance alone", said Professor French.
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And what sort of database was he using to assess those odds? The chance of guessing one of five Zener cards correctly?

He just brushes the successful result under the carpet with such a response, when he ought to be assessing the combined odds of the various statements in the 'good' result. This would be far more interesting and scientifically valuable.

Prof. French clearly prejudges the issues, and will 'rationalise away' anything that doesn't fit with his world-view. :evil: The man's a disgrace to science.

(Am I allowed to say that, since he's not dead yet? :twisted: )
 
From my admittedly limited knowledge of running experiments, you would need to use a control group who profess no special abilities to do this experiment properly. Then compare the results of the two groups.

Something along the lines of a 'randomised double blind placebo controlled trial' I think.

To be honest I don't think they did that.
 
crystophalax said:
From my admittedly limited knowledge of running experiments, you would need to use a control group who profess no special abilities to do this experiment properly. Then compare the results of the two groups.

Something along the lines of a 'randomised double blind placebo controlled trial' I think.

To be honest I don't think they did that.
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Damn right they didn't!

This was a classic example of 'Throwing out the baby with the bath water'!
 
crystophalax said:
But surely in an experiment like that there are bound to be some 'bang on target' hits?
The point is whether they are statistically significant or not.
When the experimenters say that the psychics performed no better than chance, it implies that people just guessing, rather than using psychic powers, would produce approximately the same quantity of impressively accurate hits.
Click to expand...


The simple answer is that without being thre or knowing precisely what was said and how we don't know. We only have the various quotes to go on. But the way it reads to me, from that little info, I don't see why anyone would be bound to be "bang on target".

It says they "asked two professional mediums to write something about five individuals who were concealed behind a screen.
These five volunteers were then asked to try to identify themselves from these psychic readings - with a success rate of only one in five.
This was a result that was "entirely consistent with the operation of chance alone", said Professor French.

So the "consistent with chance" bit doesn't refer in anyway to the specific content of the readings but to the chances of a person picking out the written reading that was meant for themselves from a pile of five. We don't know if the woman who correctly identified her own reading is exagerating or misremembering or anything else, but taking her on her word she claims the reading that she correctly identified as her own spoke of things going through her head at the time of the experiment, including a specific name. We can also presumably rule out cold reading, the usual suspect, as the whole set up of the experiment was designed to make that impossible. The fact that the "psychics" accounts had to be written rather than spoken would at least appear to also limit the likelihood that 20 names were mentioned in an ever changing ramble until one of them is right. If such a technique were used it would be glaringly obvious on paper, but without it why would anyone evr be "bound to be bang on target"? If I said to you the name Norma right now, is there a one in 5 chance its going through your head?
 
In my opinion these types of experiments are designed to reinforce a certain scientific belief. Glossing over the finer details gives a simplified, bite sized result leading to a "see, I told you you couldn't do it" type of attitude, hidden behind an annoyingly well meaning face (subjective opinion of course).

Glossing over some finer details, whether they add to distract from a particular hypothesis, leads me to think that only one result is required. As I said before, if you really have psychic abilities, you would be foolish to walk into such an ambush.
 
I obviously didn’t read the original article properly, as I initially thought that this was a much bigger study. With just 2 mediums and 5 volunteers, I don’t think it could have any value at all, so ignore my earlier comments.

My point was, if it had been a large enough study, you could have expected to see some really surprisingly accurate predictions, and yet these would still not be statistically significant.
As it is I don’t think we can learn anything from this and it all seems very shoddy.

I would however, like to see the results of a 'randomised double blind placebo controlled trial' though, if anyone is thinking of running one?
 
As a Goldsmiths grad, I'm probably prejudiced, but I had a few beers with Chris French the last time he was in DC and I thought he was pretty awesome (I almost typed "nice enough", but 10 years in America overrid my natural British understatement).

If you've only seen him on TV, bear in mind it's often edited and directed for a certain effect, in this case he is generally the token skeptic, so take that as you will.


Spudrick68 said:
Chris French annoys me so much with that well meaning look and tone of voice when he explains why people who believe in something he can't make perform like a monkey in a circus are deluded. I almost prefer the sneering and sheer bloody rudeness of James Randhi.
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As mentioned before, the Merseyside Skeptics were a big part of this.

They cover it in the latest episode of their podcast : http://www.merseysideskeptics.org.uk/20 ... isode-084/

I think a lot of you will be surprised at the sympathetic tone they take.

As a longtime Fortean forum and email list member, I'm a big fan of their mates down the pub pisstake tone, although it's awesomely absent in the first half hour of this show.
 
crystophalax said:
I obviously didn’t read the original article properly, as I initially thought that this was a much bigger study. With just 2 mediums and 5 volunteers, I don’t think it could have any value at all, so ignore my earlier comments.
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No, it wasn't a proper scientific study - it was just a gimmick:
This Halloween challenge was an attempt to investigate whether professional mediums could demonstrate their psychic powers in a controlled setting - by inviting them to deduce something about people they had never met and could not see or hear.
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(From the Beeb story.)
 
From what I'm reading here it seems to be the wrong sort of test...more akin to the perceived accuracy of a tabloid horoscope than any real divining of information about a particular subject.

As has been mentioned, the experiment would need a larger number of test subjects and controls. It's a jolly wheeze for the sceptics but I don't think it really proves anything either way.

Is there a better question on the nature of psychic ability than 'Have you ever thought of someone you haven't heard from in a long time just a few minutes before they call you out of the blue on the phone?'

I wonder what results a sceptic would get if they asked 1000 people that question?
 
I think theres a need for this thread, but if mods think it fits better elsewhere then please move.

Bad karma: Moscow ‘wizard’ held over serial photo-model killings
http://rt.com/news/moscow-wizard-models-killings-244/
February 21, 2013 21:22

Moscow police have detained a psychic, who they suspect killed three photo models. All the victims, young ladies also allegedly engaged in prostitution, knew about the man’s 'paranormal powers' and are said to have visited him to cleanse their karma.

Forty-two-year old Georgy Martirosyan, was a well-known “karma cleanser” within a narrow circle of Moscow magicians and psychics, Georgy is said to have called himself a “wizard”.

The young women are thought to have visited Martirosyan believing that he could clear their souls, as well as add to their wealth.

According to police reports the “wizard” is said to have promised the women positive energy on their “capital” and to help multiply their income.

However, Martirosyan’s business went way beyond just “cleansing karma” and psychic financial services. Tempted with the victims’ savings he is said to have killed and robbed three of his clients as well as the mother of one girl.

“In all cases he stole for them [victims’ apartments] from 1.5 to 3 million rubles,” police said in a press released posted after the detention of the suspect on Thursday.

According to police, the money taken by the psychic was often years' worth of savings. One of the victims, Natalya Trapeznikova, 23, who came to Moscow seeking fame, gave the psychic 1.2 million rubles – all she’d saved – hoping his readings would increase the sum.

It’s also since been revealed that the three victims were also working as prostitutes in Moscow to make ends meet.

Authorities suspect Martirosyan made each crime scene look like an overdose, loading his victims with drugs and then leaving.

“The psychic knew that because of a difficult life, models were hooked on so-called "slow" drugs: heroin and methadone,” investigators told LifeNews tablod. “Overdose in this case is quite common."

That is why for a long time – one of the suspected murders dates back September 2011 - police believed those cases to be just overdose cases, rather than murders.

It was only after police compared CCTV footage from all crime scenes that they realized each time the same man was seen entering and leaving apartment buildings with a sports bag, in three different regions of Moscow. Further investigation led the police to arrest Martirosyan as the principle suspect.

The psychic agreed that the man in the footage looked a lot like him, but denies it was actually him. It took police a year-and-a-half to prove the opposite.

While being interrogated, the psychic did not deny that he knew one of the victims, Natalya Trapeznikova, who he met in 2010.

“She regularly asked me for help,” the tabloid quotes Martirosyan as saying. “She was working officially on the contract in some company, but that was just a cover. In reality, she worked as an elite prostitute and had very wealthy clients.”

Sometimes, the suspect said, she would bring him photos of her clients to ask if she should have relations with them.

Martyrosian insists he did not take Natalya’s money, only payment for his services. As for his methods, he said he would take girls to the sauna or to monasteries, and give them herbal remedies, LifeNews tabloid reports.

He alleged that he wasn’t even in Russia at the time of Natalya’s death, claiming he was in Georgia in September 2011 when her body was found. However, police investigations revealed that he visited the woman overnight before actually leaving Moscow.

The investigation is yet to officially rule on Martirosyan’s involvement in the three other similar cases, though he remains linked to the deaths. Martirosyan is soon to be charged with multiple cases of murder. If found guilty, he could face up to life behind bars.
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At first glance, the tiny community of Cassadaga is nothing out of the ordinary. Nestled in in the heart of central Florida and surrounded by lakes and forest, the sleepy town may not seem like much — but there’s something quite peculiar about it.

This town is known as the "Psychic Capital of the World."

Of the village’s roughly 100 inhabitants, over half are practicing psychic mediums.

When photographer Christiaan Lopez-Miro heard about the town, he was instantly intrigued.

“I've always been fascinated with magic and illusion, as well as the intrigue of the occult,” he said. “When I found out about Cassadaga, I instantly thought of ... ghosts and all the things one would usually think of when told there is a town where all its residents are psychics, healers and mediums. Of course I wanted to explore it further.”

He initially planned to photography psychic waiting rooms, but the draw of the mysterious little town grew. On a journey through central Florida, Lopez-Miro took his cameras with him on a side trip to Cassadaga and began knocking on doors.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/st...s-the-psychic-capital-of-the-world/ar-AAcYC11
 
ramonmercado said:
At first glance, the tiny community of Cassadaga is nothing out of the ordinary. Nestled in in the heart of central Florida and surrounded by lakes and forest, the sleepy town may not seem like much — but there’s something quite peculiar about it.

This town is known as the "Psychic Capital of the World."

Of the village’s roughly 100 inhabitants, over half are practicing psychic mediums.

When photographer Christiaan Lopez-Miro heard about the town, he was instantly intrigued.

“I've always been fascinated with magic and illusion, as well as the intrigue of the occult,” he said. “When I found out about Cassadaga, I instantly thought of ... ghosts and all the things one would usually think of when told there is a town where all its residents are psychics, healers and mediums. Of course I wanted to explore it further.”

He initially planned to photography psychic waiting rooms, but the draw of the mysterious little town grew. On a journey through central Florida, Lopez-Miro took his cameras with him on a side trip to Cassadaga and began knocking on doors.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/st...s-the-psychic-capital-of-the-world/ar-AAcYC11
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I bet that's an irritatingly smug place to live. The only place more annoying would be a town of full of jugglers.
 
Recycled1 said:
I suppose the psychics all go round telling each other "I told you so!" :)
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I bet Derek Acorn-A doesn't. Hes probably known amongst psychic circles as the guy who often says, "I didnt mean you, I meant him over there. DAVE, have you got a minute mate."
 
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