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U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

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Royal Marines in Gibraltar have seized an Iranian tanker bound for Syria in violation of European Union sanctions.

Mohsen Rezaei, a member of Ayatollah Khamenei's council of advisor says that Iran had 'a duty' to seize a British oil tanker in reprisal.

Jon Bolton, the White House national security advisor, says that British action is 'excellent news'.

Looks like an escalation to me.

Judging by his earlier words and actions, if Boris ends up in No. 10, I think he will sign off on British involvement in strikes against Iran but will probably stop short of pledging British land forces for an invasion.

Gibraltar’s chief minister Fabian Picardo said the government had “reasonable grounds” to believe the tanker and its crude cargo had breached European Union sanctions against Syria. ​
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The crude was heading to the Banyas Refinery in Syria, he said, without expanding on how or why the government held this view or from where the intelligence came.​
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Source:​
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I'd be curious as to where that intelligence did come from.

Edit: And Spain bleats ineffectually while nobody listens, as usual.
 
Mythopoeika said:
If they ran Gibraltar, they'd be useless. They'd let any ship through without a fuss.
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Given the Madrid regime's illiberal and indeed fascist track record, there is no way the liberty-loving Gibraltarians would ever accept to be subjugated by them.
 
maximus otter said:
“U.S. employers added a robust 263,000 jobs in April, suggesting that businesses have shrugged off earlier concerns that the economy might slow this year and now anticipate strong customer demand.

The unemployment rate fell to a five-decade low of 3.6% from 3.8%...

Average hourly pay rose 3.2% from 12 months earlier, a healthy increase...”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/03/unemployment-rate-april-2019-1300491

maximus otter
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US wages increased at 0.2%.

So that's $1 for every $500.00 earned.

Won't buy you a coffee.
 
Time the World told Trump to stick his embargos etc where the Sun won't shine.

Why should people just accept what he wants to do. Which is really just extortion.

Maybe if everyone bought Iranian oil and had it transported on Iranian tankers then he would get the message 'enough'!
 
giphy-2.gif
 
No, NO, a thousand times no,
If it was my laptop would have exploded in my face by now.

(Unless I successfully managed to remove that politics detection software from the site)

Wait! wait! where is that smoke coming from ?
 
INT21 said:
US wages increased at 0.2%.

So that's $1 for every $500.00 earned.

Won't buy you a coffee.
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But it's certainly not the apocalyptic depression you inferred was imminent.

Trump may be a buffoon (as indeed our next leader is likely to be) but he seems to have been at least moderately competent when it comes to the economy.
 
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Got to disagree BMCS, look at the true figures. (not the stock market, the earnings) Factor in the tax reductions, and the printed money from the last time.

He built his popularity on promises he hasn't been able to keep.

But we are wandering into politics.

Sticking to economics, the trend is downward.

Lots of factories laying off workers, many shopping chains closing.

INT21.
 
We'll see.

Meanwhile, Yith has made the point, in his usual eloquent manner, that we're straying away from the Iran issue.
 
Which would seem rather strange for a country that relies upon tankers for most of it's revenue.
 
Mind you, if you happened to be a country that has troops in most of the conflicted oil countries in the world but haven't yet managed to find an excuse to invade Iran and install a few there ?
 
Yithian,

Remember this ?

And the date it was posted.

Yithian said:
I had always assumed that the US will have spooks and special ops. operating in Iran, as, most probably, will the British. It would be odd if they didn't given the current political climate and the regional balance of powers.

(If nothing else they'll be 'dissauding' dissidents from border-hopping into Iraq: a violation which provides a fantastic cover for wider operations should beans be accidently spilt).

The interesting bit now, of course, is that if it's being reported widely as fact in the media then somebody somewhere has slipped up badly. It's a flagrant violation of the only imperative acknowledged by such bodies: The Eleventh Commandment.

Article concerned: http://www.newyorker.com/printable/?fact/050124fa_fact

Edit: Of course, there's a precedent for pre-emptive strikes against nuclear facilities in the region.. The Israelis did just this in their 1981 attack [Operation Opera] on the Osirak facility outside Baghdad (built with the assistance of our Gallic chums).

Edit2: Interestingly, the ensuing (strongly condemnatory) Security Council Resolution [487] was one of the few to criticise Israel and be signed by the US.
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All is change, but nothing changes.

INT21.
 
Hah, sounds suspiciously contemporary, doesn't it?

If I'd managed to predict the collapse of Syria, I'd reallly be patting myself on the back now!
 
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INT21 said:
Agreed.

So, who is Iran threatening ?
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Really?

Well, given that "Death to America" has become an everyday greeting in Iran, I suppose the USA is top of the list.
Saudi Arabia is probably a close second, with regular Iranian missile attacks being launched against KSA by Iran's proxy forces (Houthis).
Israel is, of course on this list and has been since 1979 when the evil Ayatollah declared the Jewish homeland to be the enemy of islam. As with the Houthi rebels elsewhere, militant Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad are being armed by Iran.
Iran is also fighting a proxy war in Yemen, with the aim of overthrowing the government.
Iran has long-standing territorial disputes with UAE and has condemned the state for its pro-Saudi and pro-Western stance.
Obviously, with major wars between them, relations between Iran and Iraq are likely to be turbulent. Wikipedia reports several low-level clashes between Iranian factions and Iraqi civilians and security forces, notably in the Basra region.
Since the overthrow of pro-Iranian Sudanese dictator Al-Bashir, Sudan has also been crossed off Iran's shrinking list of friends and is directly opposed to Iran in the Yemeni conflict.
Iran has infiltrated Jordan to a significant degree and Iranian Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan has threatened to attack.

I'm sure the malign theocracy of Iran has its fingers in plenty more pies too, but that will do for starters.

If Iran becomes a nuclear power, the obvious danger is that all nearby states that feel threatened by Iran will want to acquire nukes too. The Saudis in particular have stated that they have no wish to acquire the bomb - unless Iran has it.
A nuclear Iran would see a huge and inevitable proliferation of nuclear weapons and would greatly increase the likelihood of a nuclear war obliterating the Middle East and spreading into a global catastrophe.
 
There does appear to be a difference between a country directly threatening another country. (Trump's wish to remove North Korea from the map), and selling arms to third party countries to do the dirty works for you.

Many Western countries are guilty of the second crime (sorry, business opportunity) but nor so many openly advocate the mass destruction of others.

INT21.
 
Perhaps the time has come to make Iran into a parking lot, kidding but not against removing nukes from these nut cases.. Not much good comes of this murderous regime.
BTW in N Korea millions continue to stave while countless thousands live in slave labor camps. The GNP goes to the military and party officials who only serve to keep the last Stalinist dictatorships a float.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44234505
 
Jim said:
Perhaps the time has come to make Iran into a parking lot, kidding but not against removing nukes from these nut cases.. Not much good comes of this murderous regime.
BTW in N Korea millions continue to stave while countless thousands live in slave labor camps. The GNP goes to the military and party officials who only serve to keep the last Stalinist dictatorships a float.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44234505
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Nuclear Weapons need to be completely removed from the Middle East along with the capability to construct them.

NK/Kim has somehow hypnotised Trump.
 
ramonmercado said:
Nuclear Weapons need to be completely removed from the Middle East along with the capability to construct them.

NK/Kim has somehow hypnotised Trump.
Click to expand...

Easily done, just dangle some shiny object in front to him and tell him how great he is.
 
INT21 said:
Easily done, just dangle some shiny object in front to him and tell him how great he is.
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“If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read: 'President Can't Swim.' “

LBJ

maximus otter
 
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Just watching on Sky News, reports of British Tanker moving into Iranian waters.

https://news.sky.com/story/fears-ov...er-reports-it-entered-iranian-waters-11766673

It's not on that link, but the Sky News channel is showing a graphic of the apparent route taken by the tanker, which does look rather bizarre. I shall try and post a picture of it if I find one online.


EDIT: found a 'watch online' thing for Sky News and grabbed a screenshot from there:
1563560516642.png


I'm confused by the sudden change of direction, why would the tanker suddenly do that... or is this showing the movement of it being seized and taken? Anyone able to interpret this better than I can?
 
Oh, dear.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-tanker-seized-iran-escalation-gulf-tensions/

Things are probably going to start exploding in a relatively short space of time. I now think it's more likely than not that we'll see air-strikes against Iran by the end of the month, probably U.S. conducted with symbolic British logistic support (a few take-offs from Cyprus?). HMS Duncan was in the Bosphrous a few days ago; the silver lining here could be a chance to see a Type-45 in action...

Edit: she's currently off Crete. Too remote to make an effective demonstration.
 
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