U.S. Sizing Up Iran?

Yithian

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This isn't new or really different.
In the simple sense it isn't 'new', but I agree with Ramon that it's 'different' in the sense that this is a much higher-value (and higher-risk) target.

I'd like to think that all conceivable responses had been wargamed and counter-responses formulated before the decision to assassinate had been taken.

But the Pentagon's linguistic buck-passing makes me fear that they haven't.
 

EnolaGaia

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... But the Pentagon's linguistic buck-passing makes me fear that they haven't.
I'm confident the targeteering (designation / authorization of target) in this case didn't originate with the Pentagon.
 

Tempest63

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Rockets have fallen close to the US embassy in Baghdad.
will Trump now pump-up the volume?
 

ramonmercado

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Maybe a cyber response from Iran.

In the wake of Thursday's strike, military and cybersecurity analysts caution Iran's response could include, among other possibilities, a wave of disruptive cyberattacks. The country has spent years building the capability to execute not only the mass-destruction of computers but potentially more advanced—albeit far less likely—attacks on Western critical infrastructure like power grids and water systems.

"Cyber is certainly an option, and it’s a viable and likely one for Iran," says Ariane Tabatabai, a political scientist at the RAND think tank who focuses on Iran. Tabatabai points to the asymmetric nature of a conflict between Iran and the US: Iran's military resources are depleted, she argues, and it has no nuclear weapons or powerful state allies. That means it will most likely resort to the weapons that weak actors typically use to fight strong ones, like non-state terrorists and militias—and hacking. "If it’s going to be able to match the US, and compete with and deter it, it has to do it in a realm that’s more equal, and that's cyber."

https://www.wired.com/story/iran-soleimani-cyberattack-hackers/
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Interview on BBC Radio 5 Live now with two (female) Iranian academics living in the U.K.

Suleimani described as a "horrific man with much blood on his hands" and the reaction was "not sad in the slightest" to hear he was killed. The second radio guest was however very apprehensive about what happens next.
 
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Cochise

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Interview on BBC Radio 5 Live now with two (female) Iranian academics living in the U.K.

Suleimani described as a "horrific man with much blood on his hands" and the reaction was "not sad in the slightest" to hear he was killed. The second radio guest was however very apprehensive about what happens next.
What we are actually seeing here is the irrelevance of the UN. The religious regime in Iran is ghastly and not much different to many past regimes the left condemns as Fascist. The UN should be condemning them for their abuses against their own population. but it does nothing. When those abuses spread outside their own country and affect the interests of other countries what are they to do? You do not have meaningful compromise with religious fanatics (regardless of which religion they allegedly follow).

I'm not saying i have answers but I believe Trump is actually trying to withdraw US troops from the Middle East - this is his way of saying even if we don't have a military presence physically in the ME we can take action if you cross certain red lines.
 

blessmycottonsocks

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The Iranian islamist theocratic regime IS fascist, without any doubt.
In the last years of the Shah, Iran was rapidly modernising and liberalising.
What a crying shame for the Iranians and indeed all of humanity that the Ayatollah and his equally vile successors seem hell-bent on dragging their nation back to medieval barbarity.
 

ramonmercado

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The Iranian islamist theocratic regime IS fascist, without any doubt.
In the last years of the Shah, Iran was rapidly modernising and liberalising.
What a crying shame for the Iranians and indeed all of humanity that the Ayatollah and his equally vile successors seem hell-bent on dragging their nation back to medieval barbarity.
The Shah was also a dictator though and ran a repressive regime.

But a lot less repressive than the theocracy.

Bit like the 'Stans. In Kazakhstan you have a dictator who's a bit of a thug but women and minorities aren't oppressed. In Uzbekistan you have a monster who boils people alive.
 

Cochise

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The Shah was also a dictator though and ran a repressive regime.

But a lot less repressive than the theocracy.

Bit like the 'Stans. In Kazakhstan you have a dictator who's a bit of a thug but women and minorities aren't oppressed. In Uzbekistan you have a monster who boils people alive.
You can't have democracy in a country that is totally divided on racial or religious lines. We see - fortunately distant - echoes of this in Northern Ireland. In the Middle East a benevolent (relatively) dictatorship is not ideal, but still better than a religious fanatic. The West's ludicrous desire for regime change in multiple countries in the ME was based in utter ignorance and stupidity, and has replaced repressive but somewhat westernised leaders with maniacs - where it hasn't caused total anarchy and millions of refugees.
 
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ramonmercado

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Whataboutery!
Nope, just pointing out that the Shah wasn't some kind of benevolent dictator, he was brutal and corrupt, as were those around him.

It would be whataboutery if I was using his crimes to support the mullahs. I want to see a mullah hanging from every lamp post in Tehran.
 
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ramonmercado

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You can't have democracy in a country that is totally divided on racial or religious lines. We see - fortunately distant - echoes of this in Northern Ireland. In the Middle East a benevolent (relatively) dictatorship is not ideal, but still better than a religious fanatic. The West's ludicrous desire for regime change in multiple countries in the ME was based in utter ignorance and stupidity, and has replaced repressive but somewhat westernised leaders with maniacs - where it hasn't caused total anarchy and millions of refugees.
See my response to Bless.

There was a real chance for democracy in Iran in 1979 but the (normal) conservatives, liberals and socialists were outwitted by the mullahs and their control of pious mobs. Those in favour of a democratic Iran had armed militias and should have used them against the Ayatollah's forces. They might also have won over the existing armed forces if they had acted together.
 
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Mythopoeika

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blessmycottonsocks

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Suicidal dachshunds?

I never sausage a thing...
 
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ramonmercado

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ramonmercado

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I'll mourn any of the thirty-five who were present against their will.
It's a funeral though, also such an attack will have strengthened nationalist sentiment in Iran, people who would be indifferent to the regime, even those who might want some sort of change would attend.

Soleimani was a butcher who played a pivotal role in suppressing the 2009 protests and I would dance on his grave. Change has to come from within Iran though if the Mullahs are to be really overthrown. Trump (or any other US President) would happily make peace with the theocracy if they contained their activities within Iran.
 

Cochise

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See my response to Bless.

There was a real chance for democracy in Iran in 1979 but the (normal) conservatives, liberals and socialists were outwitted by the mullahs and their control of pious mobs. Those in favour of a democratic Iran had armed militias and should have used them against the Ayatollah's forces. They might also have won over the existing armed forces if they had acted together.
I did say 'relatively' regarding the benevolence of the Shah (and other) dictators in the ME. Does anyone really believe that getting rid of Assad, for example, would suddenly cause an outbreak of democracy? Far more likely would be another theocracy that would commit genocide against any so-called heretics.
 

Cochise

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At a slight tangent, Iran have all-but-admitted they were behind Lockerbie by threatening to do it again, which makes our wanton destabilisation of Libya look even more irresponsible.
 

ramonmercado

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At a slight tangent, Iran have all-but-admitted they were behind Lockerbie by threatening to do it again, which makes our wanton destabilisation of Libya look even more irresponsible.
Have they? Have you got links for that? I've seen various groups blamed, Syrian, Iraqi, Palestinian, mostly extremist split from larger groups.

I agree that the destruction of Libya, Iraq and Syria has been wanton.
 

Cochise

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Have they? Have you got links for that? I've seen various groups blamed, Syrian, Iraqi, Palestinian, mostly extremist split from larger groups.

I agree that the destruction of Libya, Iraq and Syria has been wanton.
Sample link - there are a number out there.


World War 3 horror: Iran threatens to carry out terrifying Lockerbie-style attack on US
DONALD TRUMP has been warned to expect another Lockerbie by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, as Iran continued to mourn the death of its top military leader Qassem Soleimani.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...mani-funeral-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-lockerbie
 

blessmycottonsocks

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Sample link - there are a number out there.


World War 3 horror: Iran threatens to carry out terrifying Lockerbie-style attack on US
DONALD TRUMP has been warned to expect another Lockerbie by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, as Iran continued to mourn the death of its top military leader Qassem Soleimani.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...mani-funeral-ayatollah-ali-khamenei-lockerbie
Cue far more intrusive security checks at airports for the foreseeable future.
 

SkepticalX

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This seems like a perfect opportunity to test the effectiveness of our EMP weapons. Can't stage a cyber attack if you fry their electronics.
 

Yithian

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This seems like a perfect opportunity to test the effectiveness of our EMP weapons. Can't stage a cyber attack if you fry their electronics.
“What’s G-12 do Tommy?”

“Well, it says here it destroys everything but the fillings in their teeth.
 
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