Why Haven't Aliens Contacted Us Yet? (Fermi Paradox)

dr wu

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The fact we are still studying it, it hasn't changed and the government still keeps it secret and lies about it, says quite a bit, to me.
And who says the gubbermint is keeping it secret and lying about it? The believers..? Because I don't hear that refrain from anyone else.
;)
BTW...I think science should take a look into the enigma....Dr Vallee said this a long time ago that we had a chance to do some good science but wasted it. But crying conspiracy and blaming the gubbermint all the time doesn't help the situation.
 
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Carl Grove

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Dr Wu --I didn't really want to lead the whole discussion into parapsychology, which is not what this thread is about, and I only mentioned telepathy because it seemed like the kind of faculty that an advanced alien entity might have acquired, as one of a number of possibilities, but in any case I have to question your assumption that it somehow lies outside "day to day science." In fact, I'm not sure what you mean by that. Parapsychology is in fact established as a recognised field of science, with its own peer reviewed journals and imaginative and innovative researchers. The research designs used today employ strict double blind protocols and recognised techniques of statistical testing -- in fact many ESP studies have generated a huge amount of data, the remote viewing studies probably being the best known, implying a level of significance equal to and often better than that achieved by conventional psychology. The situation hasn't progressed much as regards general acceptance, however, with some sceptics questioning the validity of statistics itself (Hansel was the first to try this line). (Nobody seems to have noticed the awkward fact that modern quantum theory relies massively upon statistical theory, so if there is something fundamentally wrong with it, that would have rather scary implications for physics). If you have experienced some of these phenomena yourself, all the argument seems a bit irrelevant, I have to say.
One excellent introduction to a lot of modern parapsychology is Lynne McTaggart's The Field, and also her later book The Intention Experiment.
There are several excellent surveys of the Remote Viewing studies available.
On Sufism -- a lot of scholars still view Sufism as an exclusively Islamic form of mysticism. This is partly because Muhammed himself practiced Hanifite exercises and the Sufis regard the Hanifs as part of their stream; and because the Quaran contains multiple levels of meaning, like most Sufic teaching materials. And because many of the traditions of the Prophet were patently Sufic. The best introduction to the whole area is Idries Shah's book The Sufis, which concentrates upon the major figures of the tradition such as Rumi and Ghazzali, and the influence of Sufi thinking on Westerners such as Roger Bacon and organisations such as the Masons and the Knights Templar. Shah's own emphasis in over 30 books has been to emphasize the value of clear thinking and the control of the intellectual and emotional faculties that interfere with it, so even if you aren't interested in the mystical elements Sufism is of immense practical help at a psychological level.
 

dr wu

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Dr Wu --I didn't really want to lead the whole discussion into parapsychology, which is not what this thread is about, and I only mentioned telepathy because it seemed like the kind of faculty that an advanced alien entity might have acquired, as one of a number of possibilities, but in any case I have to question your assumption that it somehow lies outside "day to day science." In fact, I'm not sure what you mean by that. Parapsychology is in fact established as a recognised field of science, with its own peer reviewed journals and imaginative and innovative researchers. The research designs used today employ strict double blind protocols and recognised techniques of statistical testing -- in fact many ESP studies have generated a huge amount of data, the remote viewing studies probably being the best known, implying a level of significance equal to and often better than that achieved by conventional psychology. The situation hasn't progressed much as regards general acceptance, however, with some sceptics questioning the validity of statistics itself (Hansel was the first to try this line). (Nobody seems to have noticed the awkward fact that modern quantum theory relies massively upon statistical theory, so if there is something fundamentally wrong with it, that would have rather scary implications for physics). If you have experienced some of these phenomena yourself, all the argument seems a bit irrelevant, I have to say.
One excellent introduction to a lot of modern parapsychology is Lynne McTaggart's The Field, and also her later book The Intention Experiment.
There are several excellent surveys of the Remote Viewing studies available.
On Sufism -- a lot of scholars still view Sufism as an exclusively Islamic form of mysticism. This is partly because Muhammed himself practiced Hanifite exercises and the Sufis regard the Hanifs as part of their stream; and because the Quaran contains multiple levels of meaning, like most Sufic teaching materials. And because many of the traditions of the Prophet were patently Sufic. The best introduction to the whole area is Idries Shah's book The Sufis, which concentrates upon the major figures of the tradition such as Rumi and Ghazzali, and the influence of Sufi thinking on Westerners such as Roger Bacon and organisations such as the Masons and the Knights Templar. Shah's own emphasis in over 30 books has been to emphasize the value of clear thinking and the control of the intellectual and emotional faculties that interfere with it, so even if you aren't interested in the mystical elements Sufism is of immense practical help at a psychological level.

I'm not sure what part of Science you think supports or recognizes parapsychology because I'm betting none of the regular channels do.
It's considered outside of the field by almost all scientists....it's nice they have their own peer reviewed journal but that means little when it comes to real facts. A great deal more data and studies are needed to make it seem credible to most.
Having said that.....I also see no reason to again assume that space traveling aliens would or could use telepathy.......there is no good repeatable evidence that it even exists contrary to what some might say that follow that 'field'...nor that it could be used in any meaningful manner.
And I'm not sure what Sufism has to do with this thread ...whether or not aliens exists and are here.

btw...I have no problem with good reproducible studies into psi aspects but we have yet to have real science get involved....to the extent it needs to be to prove it one way or the other.
I have read a few books over the years that suggest that 'psi phenomena' could be 'events or glitches' in the 'Quantum' fields around us but this has yet to be shown.....and currently I don't think anyone is even doing any real research into this. It remains only an intriguing idea.
 
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Carl Grove

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I'm not sure what part of Science you think supports or recognizes parapsychology because I'm betting none of the regular channels do.
It's considered outside of the field by almost all scientists....it's nice they have their own peer reviewed journal but that means little when it comes to real facts. A great deal more data and studies are needed to make it seem credible to most.
Having said that.....I also see no reason to again assume that space traveling aliens would or could use telepathy.......there is no good repeatable evidence that it even exists contrary to what some might say that follow that 'field'...nor that it could be used in any meaningful manner.
And I'm not sure what Sufism has to do with the thread on ...whether or not aliens exists and are here.
I think we shall just have to disagree. As far as I know scientists as a whole have never been canvassed as to their opinions regarding parapsychology. It's odd that on many forums when I refer to various Fortean phenomena, sceptics will reply that unless my sources have been published in peer reviewed papers, they will not accept them. But that means little "when it comes to real facts." Perhaps you could define "real facts." If experiments are done, if they produce strong evidence, that consitututes perfectly valid data. That is what science is about. The truth is that you personally won't accept the existence of certain types of phenomena, even if strong evidence has been produced by hundreds of studies.
The relevance of Sufism is that it sometimes makes references to humanity coming from an extra terrestrial source, which it has forgotten.
 

dr wu

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I think we shall just have to disagree. As far as I know scientists as a whole have never been canvassed as to their opinions regarding parapsychology. It's odd that on many forums when I refer to various Fortean phenomena, sceptics will reply that unless my sources have been published in peer reviewed papers, they will not accept them. But that means little "when it comes to real facts." Perhaps you could define "real facts." If experiments are done, if they produce strong evidence, that consitututes perfectly valid data. That is what science is about. The truth is that you personally won't accept the existence of certain types of phenomena, even if strong evidence has been produced by hundreds of studies.
The relevance of Sufism is that it sometimes makes references to humanity coming from an extra terrestrial source, which it has forgotten.
I'm actually pretty open minded about many things.....I used to be very interested in the occult, eastern mysticism(a student of Alan Watts), and related matters.I used to do both 'Vipassana' and Zen 'bench sitting' for over 5 years....sadly my nature didn't allow me to stick with it.
I was also involved with 4th Way techniques (Gurdjieff philosophy) for several years as well as being interested in Terrance McKenna's work.
Para-psychological events and related phenomena often occur in eastern mysticism so I mention this to show I an open to alternate ideas.
But.....we are a long way from understanding why or what these events really mean. My problem is with people stating them as fact....because currently we simply don't know what they represent.


ps: can you cite the part where Sufism makes reference to humanity from alien sources...?...a link perhaps to some text..?
 
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Carl Grove

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I'm actually pretty open minded about many things.....I used to be very interested in the occult, eastern mysticism(a student of Alan Watts), and related matters.I used to do both 'Vipassana' and Zen 'bench sitting' for over 5 years....sadly my nature didn't allow me to stick with it.
I was also involved with 4th Way techniques (Gurdjieff philosophy) for several years as well as being interested in Terrance McKenna's work.
Para-psychological events and related phenomena often occur in eastern mysticism so I mention this to show I an open to alternate ideas.
But.....we are a long way from understanding why or what these events really mean. My problem is with people stating them as fact....because currently we simply don't know what they represent.


ps: can you cite the part where Sufism makes reference to humanity from alien sources...?...a link perhaps to some text..?
Well, you are surprising me. We certainly are a long way from understanding these things, but I still feel that some excellent efforts have been made in that direction, even if many of these phenomena defy an easy "scientific" approach.

Now there are a number of references scattered through Sufi writings that refer obliquely to mankind's origins " beyond the stars" and hint that we are here, maybe temporarily, awaiting some time when we will remember our origins. See "The Sufi Quest" by Usted Hilmi, p. 196 in this book, free to read, at:

https://idriesshahfoundation.org/read-online/read-thinkers-of-the-east/

So far The Sufi Mystery (ed. N. P. Archer) has maybe the most explicit claims along these lines, in an article by F. X. O'Halloran, "A Catholic among the Sufis," not yet available on the ISF site. There are also a number of teaching stories that could be interpreted in this manner. If you were involved in the Gurdjieff work you will find much of the material rings a few bells. Besides the ISF books there is a site that has copies of materials that Shah circulated during the early 60s to various Gurdjieff and other groups, I'll try to attach a few:
 

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Tempest63

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Well....none of the telepathic studies have been verified by day to day science as far as I know though I do agree that some parapsychological things have been done. And of course many things have been proven by science(until unproven..)....I'm not sure what you mean by that. Can you cite an example for me? I read your reply to Naughty but it s a little unclear imo. Again what documentation is there for ufos and telepathy..again this is all anecdotal....and specifically how is it relevant to the Fermi Paradox?


as a side note regarding Sufism...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sufism
he Arabic word tasawwuf (lit. being or becoming a Sufi), generally translated as Sufism, is commonly defined by Western authors as Islamic mysticism.[20][21] The Arabic term sufi has been used in Islamic literature with a wide range of meanings, by both proponents and opponents of Sufism.[20] Classical Sufi texts, which stressed certain teachings and practices of the Quran and the sunnah (exemplary teachings and practices of the Islamic prophet Muhammad), gave definitions of tasawwuf that described ethical and spiritual goals[note 1] and functioned as teaching tools for their attainment. Many other terms that described particular spiritual qualities and roles were used instead in more practical contexts.[20][21]

Some modern scholars have used other definitions of Sufism such as "intensification of Islamic faith and practice"[20] and "process of realizing ethical and spiritual ideals".[21]

The term Sufism was originally introduced into European languages in the 18th century by Orientalist scholars, who viewed it mainly as an intellectual doctrine and literary tradition at variance with what they saw as sterile monotheism of Islam. In modern scholarly usage the term serves to describe a wide range of social, cultural, political and religious phenomena associated with Sufis.[21]
As Neil from the Young Ones would say
“It’s getting heavy man”
 

Tempest63

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As someone who has to investigate some quite serious accidents in industry I think I may have developed telepathy when interviewing witnesses and as such I know when they are about to lie.
It’s either telepathy or I notice their lips are about to move.

“I didn’t do it...”
 

dr wu

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As someone who has to investigate some quite serious accidents in industry I think I may have developed telepathy when interviewing witnesses and as such I know when they are about to lie.
It’s either telepathy or I notice their lips are about to move.

“I didn’t do it...”
Body language...? Many people can read eye movements, etc to tell if someone is being truthful.
 

dr wu

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As Neil from the Young Ones would say
“It’s getting heavy man”
Well....getting into the occult, related metaphysics , and esoteric religion is indeed 'heavy' material.
I used to spend a great deal of time in the 70's and 80's reading such books...along with a lot of science fiction.
Now I tend to be more skeptical ,but open minded. Blame it on old age cynicism.
;)
 

Tempest63

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Well....getting into the occult, related metaphysics , and esoteric religion is indeed 'heavy' material.
I used to spend a great deal of time in the 70's and 80's reading such books...along with a lot of science fiction.
Now I tend to be more skeptical ,but open minded. Blame it on old age cynicism.
;)
Did the same in the 70’s and 80’s, every weekend at the Atlantis Bookshop in Museum Street. Read Ophiel, Crowley et al. Then all the witchcraft stuff, Gardner and Alexander. Never without a ghost book. Now I find myself becoming more sceptical and cynical with every “it happened to me” podcast I listen to.
I believed I experienced many weird/occult/paranormal happenings over the years, some of which I have outlined on the forum, but I look at myself now and think “did you really believe in that shit!”
 

dr wu

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Did the same in the 70’s and 80’s, every weekend at the Atlantis Bookshop in Museum Street. Read Ophiel, Crowley et al. Then all the witchcraft stuff, Gardner and Alexander. Never without a ghost book. Now I find myself becoming more sceptical and cynical with every “it happened to me” podcast I listen to.
I believed I experienced many weird/occult/paranormal happenings over the years, some of which I have outlined on the forum, but I look at myself now and think “did you really believe in that shit!”
Did you ever read The Occult by Colin Wilson...? That book started me on the search (about 1973) for all things weird.....led me in all manner of directions as you probably know since it covered all the bases. I also read his novels...as well as several of his 'non occult' books.
Mysteries was another good one by Wilson....it also led me down many a strange path.
 

Tempest63

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Did you ever read The Occult by Colin Wilson...? That book started me on the search (about 1973) for all things weird.....led me in all manner of directions as you probably know since it covered all the bases. I also read his novels...as well as several of his 'non occult' books.
Mysteries was another good one by Wilson....it also led me down many a strange path.
I was massively influenced by Colin Wilson, both the occult and mysteries and the books on poltergeist etc. His books led me to Tom Lethbridge (I’m reading a biography of Tom Lethbridge at the moment). Guy Lyon Playfair was another, the flying cow was a big favourite which led to loads of studying of voodoo and Santeria. I also loved lifetide and supernature by Lyall Watson.

No stone went unturned in the search for answers. Problem then was I was too young to really understand the questions.
 
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EnolaGaia

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... Again what documentation is there for ufos and telepathy..again this is all anecdotal....and specifically how is it relevant to the Fermi Paradox? ...
I suspect the relevance lies in the notion that if aliens were telepathic - especially if any contact they'd made to date had been via psi capabilities rather than physical visitation to earth - the criteria for evaluating the Fermi Paradox might well need to be re-thought.

For example, there's little point in trying to resolve the Fermi Paradox if one concedes a mode of visitation / contact could be beyond our ken or limited to only a subset of our species whose reports wouldn't be widely believed. Fermi's original question loses its thrust if we're unable to recognize, much less acknowledge, contact that may have already occurred.
 

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I suspect the relevance lies in the notion that if aliens were telepathic - especially if any contact they'd made to date had been via psi capabilities rather than physical visitation to earth - the criteria for evaluating the Fermi Paradox might well need to be re-thought.

For example, there's little point in trying to resolve the Fermi Paradox if one concedes a mode of visitation / contact could be beyond our ken or limited to only a subset of our species whose reports wouldn't be widely believed. Fermi's original question loses its thrust if we're unable to recognize, much less acknowledge, contact that may have already occurred.
Surely that is true of any postulate or theory - even theorem. They can't take in to account 'unknown unknowns' . For example Pythagorean geometry may not work in n dimensions.
 

dr wu

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I suspect the relevance lies in the notion that if aliens were telepathic - especially if any contact they'd made to date had been via psi capabilities rather than physical visitation to earth - the criteria for evaluating the Fermi Paradox might well need to be re-thought.

For example, there's little point in trying to resolve the Fermi Paradox if one concedes a mode of visitation / contact could be beyond our ken or limited to only a subset of our species whose reports wouldn't be widely believed. Fermi's original question loses its thrust if we're unable to recognize, much less acknowledge, contact that may have already occurred.
Well....since that is speculative regarding both telepathy and aliens it really doesn't affect the Fermi Paradox all that much.
His question is still relevant..."Where are they?"

;)
 

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Well I don't think he was far off --they are here. The main issue is our anthropocentric view of how we should be treated by them (they should shake our hands on the White House lawn stuff).
 

dr wu

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And once again...who says they are here? This is like calling things 'fake news.'....and we all know how well that goes.

;)
 

Fahrenheit 451

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People seem so wrapped up in sci-fi that they never entertain the possibility that we might be the most advanced civilisation in the universe. Depressing thought, eh?
I'm not sure we are even the most intelligent life on Planet Earth - destroying our planet and each other hardly defines an advanced race.
 
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EnolaGaia

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A newly published study suggests we're just being impatient, and there's a good chance there's been considerable dissemination of alien civilizations to date.
Aliens May Have Explored The Galaxy And Visited Earth Already, Scientists Say

MORGAN MCFALL-JOHNSEN, BUSINESS INSIDER
9 SEP 2019
The Milky Way could be teeming with interstellar alien civilizations, according to a new study. We just don't know about it because they haven't paid us a visit in 10 million years.

The study, published last month in The Astronomical Journal, posits that intelligent extraterrestrial life could be taking its time to explore the galaxy, harnessing star systems' movement to make star-hopping easier.

The work is a new response to a question known as the Fermi Paradox, which asks why we haven't detected signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. ...
FULL STORY: https://www.sciencealert.com/aliens...laxy-and-visited-earth-already-new-study-says
 

EnolaGaia

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Here's the abstract for the published article focused upon by the story posted above ...
The Fermi Paradox and the Aurora Effect: Exo-civilization Settlement, Expansion, and Steady States
Jonathan Carroll-Nellenback, Adam Frank, Jason Wright, and Caleb Scharf
Published 2019 August 20 The American Astronomical Society.
The Astronomical Journal, Volume 158, Number 3

Abstract
We model the settlement of the Galaxy by space-faring civilizations in order to address issues related to the Fermi Paradox. We are motivated to explore the problem in a way that avoids assumptions about the agency (i.e., questions of intent and motivation) of any exo-civilization seeking to settle other planetary systems. We begin by considering the speed of an advancing settlement front to determine if the Galaxy can become inhabited with space-faring civilizations on timescales shorter than its age. Our models for the front speed include the directed settlement of nearby settleable systems through the launching of probes with a finite velocity and range. We also include the effect of stellar motions on the long-term behavior of the settlement front which adds a diffusive component to its advance. As part of our model we also consider that only a fraction, f, of planets will have conditions amenable to settlement by the space-faring civilization. The results of these models demonstrate that the Milky Way can be readily filled-in with settled stellar systems under conservative assumptions about interstellar spacecraft velocities and launch rates. We then move on to consider the question of the Galactic steady state achieved in terms of the fraction X of settled planets. We do this by considering the effect of finite settlement civilization lifetimes on the steady states. We find a range of parameters for which 0 < X < 1, i.e., the Galaxy supports a population of interstellar space-faring civilizations even though some settleable systems are uninhabited. In addition we find that statistical fluctuations can produce local overabundances of settleable worlds. These generate long-lived clusters of settled systems immersed in large regions that remain unsettled. Both results point to ways in which Earth might remain unvisited in the midst of an inhabited galaxy. Finally we consider how our results can be combined with the finite horizon for evidence of previous settlements in Earth's geologic record. Using our steady-state model we constrain the probabilities for an Earth visit by a settling civilization before a given time horizon. These results break the link between Hart's famous "Fact A" (no interstellar visitors on Earth now) and the conclusion that humans must, therefore, be the only technological civilization in the Galaxy. Explicitly, our solutions admit situations where our current circumstances are consistent with an otherwise settled, steady-state galaxy.
SOURCE: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-3881/ab31a3#ajab31a3s5
 

dr wu

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I think it's likely there are other sentient species in the Galaxy....and some of them may have developed interstellar travel.
And imho any species that achieved that goal surely must be very intelligent and possible altruistic assuming evolution took a similar turn to ours. In that case I believe that an alien race like this would probably introduce themselves to us on a public level and try to look for common ground and have a relationship. This has not happened. My gut tells me (not a scientific response I agree..) that they have not found us yet or we would be comparing notes already and the world would know this openly.
I have no certain answer for what people have been experiencing and seeing for some time now but somehow it doesn't seem like true space faring aliens to me.
 

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...Or, we are part of an artificial control simulation experiment to see how far an isolated species can expand across space over a period of time.
 

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Consider the science - physics of the proposed question. The nearest star with planets is Alpha Centauri at distance ~ 4.22 light year or ~ 2.5 E+13 miles away (2.5 tera miles). Traveling at the speed of light it would require 4,22 years for 1 way trip to earth. Thats considering a ship technologically advanced enough to tolerate the extremes present at this speed, "theoretical limit as presented by Einstein".
In addition all forms of communication in the EM spectrum (audio to light) including Radio astronomy have the same restriction.

The nearest planet considered to possible have conditions supporting life is Kepler-452b at a distance of 1,402 light years from earth.

Outside of some scientifically sound theories (worm holes, other dimensions, etc.) they may exist but may never be able to contact earth.

Food for thought.
 

EnolaGaia

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...Or, we are part of an artificial control simulation experiment to see how far an isolated species can expand across space over a period of time.
The "period of time" bit is particularly relevant to the latest news items I posted above. One of the new assumptions (or relaxation of assumption) involved in this recent study was considering that a sufficiently advanced civilization might be stable enough to wait literally ages (as in millions of years) so as to allow interstellar movements to reduce the distances they'd need to travel. All the stars and star systems are moving relative to each other - some at higher speeds than our own Sol.
 
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I've always thought that the Fermi paradox is easily countered by Calvin and Hobbes Theorem. Something along the lines of - The strongest proof that there is intelligent life in the universe is that none of it has tried to get in touch with us.
 
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